Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yea I didn't see what Phil saw at all. read what i wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I do see what he sees. I don't think he said it was bad, he mentioned how it could work against us and I don't disagree. It looks like almost some sort of a SWFE at the end and then more cold perhaps after it leaves. All I am saying is that it looks decent to me. yeah i didn't even say it was bad...just implied it was somewhat borderline depending on how things go. geez. lol. i'd still take my chances with it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There is limited Atlantic blocking for sure. We had bascially no Atlantic blocking last year but the PAC side was good so we still did fine...but you saw how when the PAC goes through relaxations without the ATL blocking, you can get cutters like we did several times last year. That said, the ensembles perhaps hinted at some more east-based ATL blocking developing late in the run...but I usually want to see that get closer before actually assuming it will happen. We saw that a bunch of times last year too where we kept getting false east-based -NAO signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 read what i wrote. If we can keep that cold in srn Canada, maybe some Scooter HP to keep things in check..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 yeah i didn't even say it was bad...just implied it was somewhat borderline depending on how things go. geez. lol. i'd still take my chances with it anyway. I did like seeing the vortex at 50mb split near the North Pole and a piece dive into SE Canada while a ridge developed near AK again. Not that I expect a direct coupling with the troposphere and immediate response, but to me it seemed that something like that occurring can help promote the same pattern anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Also, everything I see regarding MJO activity brings it to the maritime continent and to a position similar to last winter west of the dateline. I can't see this -EPO breaking down. It can waver around which ultimately has an impact on our sensible weather, but it still looks more of a Nina like pattern to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Lots of 1989 analogs showing up. If we get deep fresh snow in Canada as progged the cold is going to be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 yeah i didn't even say it was bad...just implied it was somewhat borderline depending on how things go. geez. lol. i'd still take my chances with it anyway. people can disagree with other peoples interpretation,geez, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 read what i wrote.I did I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There is limited Atlantic blocking for sure. We had bascially no Atlantic blocking last year but the PAC side was good so we still did fine...but you saw how when the PAC goes through relaxations without the ATL blocking, you can get cutters like we did several times last year. That said, the ensembles perhaps hinted at some more east-based ATL blocking developing late in the run...but I usually want to see that get closer before actually assuming it will happen. We saw that a bunch of times last year too where we kept getting false east-based -NAO signals. yeah the ensembles have resembled last winter quite a bit over North America. basically all pacific driven and very little assistance from the atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I did I disagree. fair enough. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 fair enough. LOL.might be a tad east but still blocked, also the PV looks in a pretty good spot but as you know 11-15 scores are low so it's basically a semantic disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 might be a tad east but still blocked, also the PV looks in a pretty good spot but as you know 11-15 scores are low so it's basically a semantic disagreement yeah i wasn't trying to be a debbie or a dinkus....was just making an observation. like i said before...area could certainly do well in that type of set-up. i was only pointing out a pronounced SW to NE flow from TX to NE and a few noticeable ripples in the flow...that combined with the PV lifting a bit...*could* be messy storms. that's all. could also easily be the kind of deal where cold press is solid and we have waves running out south of us. to me, just not a dead ringer of a perfect pattern. 1000x better than current set-up, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 yeah i wasn't trying to be a debbie or a dinkus....was just making an observation. like i said before...area could certainly do well in that type of set-up. i was only pointing out a pronounced SW to NE flow from TX to NE and a few noticeable ripples in the flow...that combined with the PV lifting a bit...*could* be messy storms. that's all. could also easily be the kind of deal where cold press is solid and we have waves running out south of us. to me, just not a dead ringer of a perfect pattern. 1000x better than current set-up, however. Yeah, if we had been able to stick a good NAO block in place, the pattern would have been nearly perfect. As is, we take it for sure. Hopefully some east-based blocking gets going, but I will noy count on it until it gets closer. The base pattern out there has been lower heights in Davis Straight for quite some time going back to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 yeah i wasn't trying to be a debbie or a dinkus....was just making an observation. like i said before...area could certainly do well in that type of set-up. i was only pointing out a pronounced SW to NE flow from TX to NE and a few noticeable ripples in the flow...that combined with the PV lifting a bit...*could* be messy storms. that's all. could also easily be the kind of deal where cold press is solid and we have waves running out south of us. to me, just not a dead ringer of a perfect pattern. 1000x better than current set-up, however. never meant to imply you were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah, if we had been able to stick a good NAO block in place, the pattern would have been nearly perfect. As is, we take it for sure. Hopefully some east-based blocking gets going, but I will noy count on it until it gets closer. The base pattern out there has been lower heights in Davis Straight for quite some time going back to last winter. Yeah it's kind of amusing - tough to even get a transient block. That area of low heights (sometimes lowest in entire NH) has been very persistent...thankfully it's in a favorable enough spot relative to the EPO domain to keep the arctic air flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Steve, what would be so great about a cold and dry 1989 type pattern? I'd basically consider week in the tropics if I'd have to endure that kind of cold with not much snow. Remember I don't care about the pack but want the big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Steve, what would be so great about a cold and dry 1989 type pattern? I'd basically consider week in the tropics if I'd have to endure that kind of cold with not much snow. Remember I don't care about the pack but want the big storms.Yea, terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Steve, what would be so great about a cold and dry 1989 type pattern? I'd basically consider week in the tropics if I'd have to endure that kind of cold with not much snow. Remember I don't care about the pack but want the big storms.? I just said that analog was more prevalent but encouraging on that point the days analoged were around the 15 th were a 8-12 away from the coast took place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Luckily all analogs don't have to behave the same lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Luckily all analogs don't have to behave the same lol.the list is pretty impressive 631214/0700 851214/0700 851226/0700 891214/0700 790104/0700 770108/0700 990104/0700 891219/0700 630115/0700 030117/0700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 -NAO strength/duration/location potential takes a hit with tonight's 00z suite completely altering the evolution of the Christmas cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I just want a 2" storm before years' end. Not looking too good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I was a little excited going into this season with all the hype that I've read on here and the Cohen report and all the rest but I came back to the one thing that has always worried me. It's been a really, really long time since Boston has had three consecutive seasons of substantially above normal snowfall in row. I think it goes back 35+ years? That's a trend and as has been stated on these boards (and on others) the trend is your friend when it comes to forecasting. Personally I think this will not be three in row but that's just pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro says what cutter post Xmas and drops the hammer right after the Xmas storm ftw..Turned that cutter into a cold scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH ASYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAYSUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 00z EURO develops a second frontal wave as front moves offshore sometime between the 29th and 31st. Interesting but no support currently from the GFS which develops a cyclone over the GOM on the 30th and its up the coast as a hugger into New England by the 31st. Both solutions are still 192 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Reading some of the suppression posts from last night... I'm the one that always worries about that, and I doubt you guys in SNE have anything to worry about regarding a pro-longed surpressed pattern. Without a strong block and -NAO, any of these systems that turn the corner in the southeast could just slingshot up the coast tuckie-tuckie style. I wouldn't worry about a significantly suppressed pattern, at least not in SNE. Just gotta time it with some big Canadian high moving across the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah there is no need to worry about suppression. Probably more the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 One thing has become evident over the last few days. It's going to be a good pattern overall..but the earlier thoughts of it being bitter cold along with all snow events has kind of turned into some snow events/ and some mixed events with a slightly below normal pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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