Whineminster Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You've heard of seasonal affective disorder before, right? Yes, I don't live under a rock, as much as I'd like too. I was just implying I like coastal's definition better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 For me, 11-12 was absolute rock bottom. Biggest snowfall =3.9" that year. I'd have to go back to '94-'95 to unearth something so vile. Even that year had a decent event in Feb....so we're probably taking early 90's....like '91-92. Even 2001-'02 had some some redeeming qualities, such as the snowbowl.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well its kind of hard to express concern when every single time we do it, peopel start having meltdowns and misinterprete the information. Why is it so difficult to convey uncertainty to the masses? The reason is because nobody wants probabilistic forecasts...weenies want deterministic forecasts...and their mood changes with every deterministic outcome from run to run. It's not really discussing science at that point, it's discussing deterministic outcomes that don't have a lot of meaning when they are 13 days out...even an ensemble mean. If you cannot successfully illustrate the uncertainty in even the enesemble mean, they are just like deterministic OP solutions to the masses. I think this is a quick cliff notes version of affairs this morning are: 1. The pattern is still going to change after 12/25 2. The period between 12/30 - 1/4 still looks pretty favorable for some snow chances 3. The period beyond 1/4 looks less cold today than it did yesterday or the day before 4. The period beyond 1/4 is very uncertain due to some conflicting signals in the MJO 5. The period beyond 1/4 may look colder again over the next couple runs...the uncertainty is high 6. This tells us nothing about what a period like 1/10-1/20 might bring Fabulous post Will!! Great summation and advice. Winter started less than 24 hours ago lol, lets role with punches because we really have no other option anyway. Whatever will be, will be!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 There were certainly worse winters, though when all was said and done. That winter was not a 2011-'12, for instance. I agree... and we got a good snowstorm on St. Patty's... Valentine's day was kind of a disappointment. The cold was good post mid-Jan. I also got to witness an epic Lake Effect event, which is what I most remember about that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 For me, 11-12 was absolute rock bottom. Biggest snowfall =3.9" that year. That was the worst winter of my lifetime hands down... hideous winter from coast to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree... and we got a good snowstorm on St. Patty's... Valentine's day was kind of a disappointment. The cold was good post mid-Jan. I also got to witness an epic Lake Effect event, which is what I most remember about that winter. Hence your avatar....I remember that. Yea, I got 11" in the St Patty's day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What it did was just continuously build the EPO ridge in AK in a prime spot. I can't say I hated the look, if that's how things end up rolling. I think it gives us good opportunities, within only smaller gears would need to shift favorably to hit paydirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 1) The period around 12/30 should have sufficient cold in place. It looks like a pretty deep trough carves out over the SW US and a s/w ejects from it as it rides along the gulf coast and moves northeast. 2) Well less cold probably means both longevity and the intensity of it. However, I'm not sure how one is rating that or comparing it to. Also, it still could be pretty chilly relative to avg regardless of what happens. 3) Personally I am not aware of any real comparable analogs. Some other might. Thank you for the clarity. Seems to reinforce what has been said already. So, I don't understand the angst here about what comes next pattern-wise. Storm scenario and "chilly relative to avg." sound pretty good. Not sure I trust analogs anyhow, but they do get thrown around. Thanks again for simple and clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Thank you for the clarity. Seems to reinforce what has been said already. So, I don't understand the angst here about what comes next pattern-wise. Storm scenario and "chilly relative to avg." sound pretty good. Not sure I trust analogs anyhow, but they do get thrown around. Thanks again for simple and clear. Well the chillier than avg part was just an example. In my honest opinion, extrapolating the 11-15 day looks like more of a yo-yo type deal with alternating temp regimes. Note that's sort of a precarious thing to do, extrapolate the ensemble..but with Canada cold and that look in the Pacific, it would not shock me. Of course the 12z guidance could come in and totally change that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Which judging by the GEFS may happen..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 There were certainly worse winters, though when all was said and done. That winter was not a 2011-'12, for instance. It was worse. Balls cold with a skating rink for sidewalks for weeks didn't help. At least 3 years ago it was warm save for a few frigid days. Had it snowed of course it would have a different vibe. Single numbers in March was impressive and we did snow enough to kibosh any thought of futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think it was 82 if I remember right. Outside in t shirts Christmas day riding my bike thinking how odd that was. waiting for the snow to come that never really came. More snow in April than feb./mar combined. Sensible weather returns after this week me thinks for a extended period with reasonable chances to build a pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'd have to go back to '94-'95 to unearth something so vile. Even that year had a decent event in Feb....so we're probably taking early 90's....like '91-92. Even 2001-'02 had some some redeeming qualities, such as the snowbowl.... Yeah Feb 95 was a decent storm even south of BOS. The snowbowl in '02. 2011 and 2012 had two events miss BOS pretty much. That mini little nuke that hit SE MA giving them 3-4" of wet snow in like 2-3 hrs and then the south coast deformation band storm a few days later. I was locked up in that beast of a man shed and getting numerous beatings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well its kind of hard to express concern when every single time we do it, peopel start having meltdowns and misinterprete the information. Why is it so difficult to convey uncertainty to the masses? The reason is because nobody wants probabilistic forecasts...weenies want deterministic forecasts...and their mood changes with every deterministic outcome from run to run. It's not really discussing science at that point, it's discussing deterministic outcomes that don't have a lot of meaning when they are 13 days out...even an ensemble mean. If you cannot successfully illustrate the uncertainty in even the enesemble mean, they are just like deterministic OP solutions to the masses. I think this is a quick cliff notes version of affairs this morning are: 1. The pattern is still going to change after 12/25 2. The period between 12/30 - 1/4 still looks pretty favorable for some snow chances 3. The period beyond 1/4 looks less cold today than it did yesterday or the day before 4. The period beyond 1/4 is very uncertain due to some conflicting signals in the MJO 5. The period beyond 1/4 may look colder again over the next couple runs...the uncertainty is high 6. This tells us nothing about what a period like 1/10-1/20 might bring Exactly what i was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Which judging by the GEFS may happen..lol. It's literally night and day between the 00z GEFS. Doesn't break down the EPO ridge nearly as quickly. It's more along the lines of the PARA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Exactly what i was looking for You should come to the gtg tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's literally night and day between the 00z GEFS. Doesn't break down the EPO ridge nearly as quickly. It's more along the lines of the PARA. Yeah textbook AK ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm not sure its the QBO thats causing this problem with the models, we definitely had a winter 6-7 years back with a QBO almost this strong and from what I recall the models and ensembles did not waffle this badly beyond Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It was worse. Balls cold with a skating rink for sidewalks for weeks didn't help. At least 3 years ago it was warm save for a few frigid days. Had it snowed of course it would have a different vibe. Single numbers in March was impressive and we did snow enough to kibosh any thought of futility. Maybe for the immediate coast, but just inland did really well in VD day and St Patty.....34.5" for me was bad, but not horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm not sure its the QBO thats causing this problem with the models, we definitely had a winter 6-7 years back with a QBO almost this strong and from what I recall the models and ensembles did not waffle this badly beyond Day 5. 2007-'08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pickles, the nat gas guys are the biggest weenies. They make accuweather weenies look like Paul Kocin. If December is warm, it's virtually winter cancel to them. They only care about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think it was 82 if I remember right. Outside in t shirts Christmas day riding my bike thinking how odd that was. waiting for the snow to come that never really came. More snow in April than feb./mar combined. Sensible weather returns after this week me thinks for a extended period with reasonable chances to build a pack. Feb 1983 had the megalopolis snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOL nice gas response to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOL nice gas response to the GFS. Did you fart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Unhealthy and unreadable . Poor mets . Give them a break guys. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Feb 1983 had the megalopolis snowstorm.lol yea was going to say ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Winter cancel/uncancel, Nice look on the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Winter cancel/uncancel, Nice look on the 12z GEFSWill the usuals flock out? Smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Winter cancel/uncancel, Nice look on the 12z GEFS The OP run came out of my basement after the Grinch storm...periods of great cold, but when the storms come they can amplify a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The OP run came out of my basement after the Grinch storm...periods of great cold, but when the storms come they can amplify a bit. I sure like the chances coming up, Some cold, And some storms possibly, Right now we need the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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