CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 What's the spread on the ens for the Sunday night storm? Well I wouldn't say that it won't be suppressed, I mean overall for the next two weeks, suppression is still not my worry IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well I wouldn't say that it won't be suppressed, I mean overall for the next two weeks, suppression is still not my worry IMHO.So you think that one is a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 So you think that one is a miss? Too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Too early to say. 50/50 then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 the EC ensemble's have a pretty good spread which is normal for this time range. the mean storm track was south of us on most of the operational models last night but there's plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 50/50 then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 50/50 then? Well I wouldn't worry right now. It would not take much work to move it over your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty tough forecast for Chicago. Could get some deformation magic tomorrow aftn. Pretty cool for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The system is really monday now...not Sunday. It's a mess of a setup. Further out in time...GEFS look colder than the EC ensembles while the GGEM ens look warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The system is really monday now...not Sunday. It's a mess of a setup. Further out in time...GEFS look colder than the EC ensembles while the GGEM ens look warmest. So 12/29, which should make it our last shot at salvaging December.....nothing before then, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So 12/29, which should make it our last shot at salvaging December.....nothing before then, so.... Depending on the timing of shortwaves, we could get one last shot on 12/31 for the year 2014. That one has looked the best to me for snow since a few days ago...but the timing is uncertain...it could be more a 1/1 system too. At times, it has been 12/30 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well the pattern overall is serviceable for SNE. It may actually be a good thing that the NAO is showing signs of last winter. Massively +, but in a position to help try and keep it cold. We are certainly playing with fire, but given what we have to work with...it could be a hell of a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well the pattern overall is serviceable for SNE. It may actually be a good thing that the NAO is showing signs of last winter. Massively +, but in a position to help try and keep it cold. We are certainly playing with fire, but given what we have to work with...it could be a hell of a lot worse. We may be paralleling 2005 in the sense that the NAO begins to cooperate at the half way mark, not that I'm going to see 107.5" of snow. If you recall, the Jan blizzard-archimbault event was a manifestation of the modality responsible for that shift in the base state of the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It is really a La Niña pattern over North America. Probably why we can get away with a +NAO as it appears on guidance. Usually Canada is warmer in El Niño so a +NAO kills us. But we'll see how long this La Niña regime lasts. I definitely still expect a transition to more typical El Niño with less gradient and more split flow as we go deeper into the winter. When that happens, we are going to need the -NAO to appear. Anyway, for more short term in the next week or two, we should have a few chances. But we'll be rolling the dice with the shortwave nuances with fast flow and no downstream blocking. But given there should be pretty good cold around, there's a good chance of cashing in on one of these chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 We may be paralleling 2005 in the sense that the NAO begins to cooperate at the half way mark, not that I'm going to see 107.5" of snow. If you recall, the Jan blizzard-archimbault event was a manifestation of the modality responsible for that shift in the base state of the NAO. My only concern is that I keep seeing these punches to the strat vortex, but the fooking thing is like Gumby. It bends, breaks, but then regains composure. Just has that feel of not getting a SSW event, but those events usually come on quick, so it would be dumb of me to say that. However, it's very tenacious, so I have some reserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I forgot: are SSWs the overrunning type events? Also, forget about the massive storms most of us want; what are the realistic chances of relatively frequent light frozen events in the pattern change that is upon us. They count for something and certainly make for a better winter ambiance than frozen and green/brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah I have to say..this is pretty strange to have this Nina like pattern right now. I agree we will get back to a Nino state, but it's interesting for a few weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I forgot: are SSWs the overrunning type events? Also, forget about the massive storms most of us want; what are the realistic chances of relatively frequent light frozen events in the pattern change that is upon us. They count for something and certainly make for a better winter ambiance than frozen and green/brown. Sudden Stratospheric Warming. You are thinking of Southwest Flow Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I forgot: are SSWs the overrunning type events? Also, forget about the massive storms most of us want; what are the realistic chances of relatively frequent light frozen events in the pattern change that is upon us. They count for something and certainly make for a better winter ambiance than frozen and green/brown. No...lol. That term you refer to is a SWFE (SouthWest Flow Event) That's when the 850-500 flow is out of the SW and you get those overrunning events of snow and/or mixed precip. SSW means Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jeez I thought the 29 was at risk of going west..lol. That changed. Although I would rather some winter temps if it were to be suppressed. With the low track being dependent on what happens a few days prior, I wouldn't really write anything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Donnie baseball sitting at 0-2 in the batters box http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/page-7#entry3208349 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nobody has a clue about the QBO. So now a strongly - QBO reverses what a weakly -QBO does? Perhaps, as usual, there is more to it then simplifying it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty tough forecast for Chicago. Could get some deformation magic tomorrow aftn. Pretty cool for them.I have been watching Chicago all week, man either they get smoked or meh ,every model every run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S post is surely frightening but if you read closely it seems as if he is far from throwing in the towel on the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S post is surely frightening but if you read closely it seems as if he is far from throwing in the towel on the winter. It's more important to see where the height anomalies are, than a index value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jeez I thought the 29 was at risk of going west..lol. That changed. Although I would rather some winter temps if it were to be suppressed. With the low track being dependent on what happens a few days prior, I wouldn't really write anything off. At least the SE Ridge got the beat down for a run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jeez I thought the 29 was at risk of going west..lol. That changed. Although I would rather some winter temps if it were to be suppressed. With the low track being dependent on what happens a few days prior, I wouldn't really write anything off. The EPS members are all over the place on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 The EPS members are all over the place on that thing. I'm not surprised.I still think there is a risk of that going over our fanny..but we'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm not surprised.I still think there is a risk of that going over our fanny..but we'll see what 12z does. Yeah they really run the gamut from suppressed to super amped and juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The EPS members are all over the place on that thing. hopefully the baselines on both the northwest and the southeast have been established and they will come around to a center median but that is probably wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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