CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I might dude. I have a few days off next week and what better way to spend it than chasing around frozen water. Might have to swing down to Stowe and hang with PF. You'll get your snow fix for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, i love BTV. Advisory snow though? Meh. Ain't riding up there for that. Although y'alls advisory snow is like a super duper warning snow down here. Oh yeah I certainly wouldn't travel for that, haha. Long way to go though, I agree with ORH, that it wouldn't surprise me if that wave cut more of a mix up here. Pretty tenuous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That end of the run threat looked better at Day 8 but then got crushed Day 9-10. That looks warmer too than I would've guessed, light snows over the interior, some showers elsewhere, and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You should come to the gtg tonight. where , what time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, i love BTV. Advisory snow though? Meh. Ain't riding up there for that. Although y'alls advisory snow is like a super duper warning snow down here. I was once at my Sis' house in Va Beach, and they got like 1.4" of snow, and my nephews got like 3 days off. Good lord! I remember in High School up here getting like 10" . two hour delay. That's all. two hours. Then, having my dad waiting at the door with a snow shovel in the evening to smack face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That end of the run threat looked better at Day 8 but then got crushed Day 9-10. That looks warmer too than I would've guessed, light snows over the interior, some showers elsewhere, and that's it. Was more of an over running event but its way out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Question for the snow lovers ... Is there a kind of snowless record keeping? Like the year with the least amount?? Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest? It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Question for the snow lovers ... Is there a kind of snowless record keeping? Like the year with the least amount?? Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest? It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all?? I don't know Tip, but what I do know is snow lovers like me are wishing for a normal winter with snow not where we have rain in our winter season where its not needed or wanted. Also, I should add the GFS 12Z isn't looking bad for storms and colds even at the end of the run. You mentioned that the EPO and WPO will be heading towards positive in the members later however we know how reliable those 10-14 day long ranges are. They have been terrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Question for the snow lovers ... Is there a kind of snowless record keeping? Like the year with the least amount?? Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest? It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all?? I think the annoyingest year is this year, and that goes for every year that isn't 95/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think the annoyingest year is this year, and that goes for every year that isn't 95/96 How about that Halloween followed by the 2nd green-up . This can't be worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, i love BTV. Advisory snow though? Meh. Ain't riding up there for that. Although y'alls advisory snow is like a super duper warning snow down here. Burlington, MA is not quite as nice, snow-wise...but it does have a Bonefish Grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I was once at my Sis' house in Va Beach, and they got like 1.4" of snow, and my nephews got like 3 days off. Good lord! I remember in High School up here getting like 10" . two hour delay. That's all. two hours. Then, having my dad waiting at the door with a snow shovel in the evening to smack face. A few years back we had no school here in Leominster for what wound up being all rain...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I was once in Seattle where snow showers whitened the ground in higher elevations. Tons of local schools closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Burlington, MA is not quite as nice, snow-wise...but it does have a Bonefish Grill Next twn southwest of me. Right down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 A few years back we had no school here in Leominster for what wound up being all rain...lol Yeah, recently there's been some forecast confidences rattled when media hyping fed into hysteria. Many local municipalities responded with preemptive closures/cancellations. ... ultimately it would turn out, unnecessarily The rub? It reflects badly on the Meteorology community, and many times, unfairly. I mean, NWS and the distributors (which include the camera people et al), and even some private firms, they all see models doing x-y-z with a-b-c, and at some point their hands are cuffed to the responsibility to inform those communication circuits that there's a flappin' storm en route. They do their job, and if there happens to be some meme in media to raise storm awareness (which Katrina and Sandy and climate change has given rise too) then the municipalities and the populations they serve don't blame the media - they blame the Meteorologist. It's also harmful in the sense of crying wolf. Now, ... when they really should preemptively shut stuff down they'll hesitate .. and someone will die. Media's just thoughtlessly motivated by greed like any macro-industry in western societies. They don't care what harm they're incurring as long as their ratings show that they are getting lots of money. Producers get pressure to flame the topic of the moment, and they call in their Mets and media personalities into meetings and tell them to push the produce (so to speak...). Or course, Ryan's probably now angry at me. Haha. Not saying that is you per se, but you have to sense the the reporter-out-on-the-end-of-the-peer dramatization that goes on. Duh! Of course is f'n windy; he's standing out at the end of a peer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 How about that Halloween followed by the 2nd green-up . This can't be worse than that. Lots of snow under the bridge since then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What are the scenarios that play out well for the 28-29 in terms of snow? How about 30-31? What are the scenarios that play out poorly? What seems to be happening in the emerging ensembles to indicate one or the other and how trustworthy in the context of the emerging pattern? I'm not asking re: the constantly changing deterministic models but within the contexts of probabilities given what actually seems to be happening/about to happen in the atmosphere? I'm not looking for my backyard scenarios. I know the models to suck for that (including my imaginary ones) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Start reading from this point for 12/28...I personally don't think it is very likely. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45140-ending-out-december-with-a-potential-pattern-change/?p=3206785 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So 28-29 most likely cuts NW if it comes about at all. Why does 30-31 look better? More cold in place.... pattern change beginning to take hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are coming in more suppressed for 12/28-12/29...so we'll have to see if that is a real trend. If it is, then it would look snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are coming in more suppressed for 12/28-12/29...so we'll have to see if that is a real trend. If it is, then it would look snowier. I'm only piqued by that possibility if it doesn't mean something of a tradeoff with regard to subsequent setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm only piqued by that possibility if it doesn't mean something of a tradeoff with regard to subsequent setups. Very cereberal weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We tiptoe with caution. Like The Grinch tiptoeing thru Hooville. I'm on the it's coming NW wagon with SE ridge from hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Very cereberal weenie. Well, sure. Why hope a marginal setup threads the needle if it trashes the hotel room on its departure, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The SE ridge is so anti niño. Dumbfounded sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 euro ens certainly have that "gradient" look. crap load of cold in Canada with the pv drilling a hole over N Canada...still enough ridging out west to keep the northern tier from flooding with warmth...southeast ridge very evident as well. won't be any slow-movers in that pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The SE ridge is so anti niño. Dumbfounded sort of. I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, the pattern over North America looks so anti-Nino...I guess the only thing missing a more -PNA pattern. But the ridiculous fast graident flow with a SE ridge looks a lot like La Nina. But it's cold enough in our region that it should gives us plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino That's a good point snow goose. Even the the winter of 98-99 acted like a niño despite being a nina mostly because of the super niño lag effect the pervious year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino I agree with you....many, including myself, overlooked that possibility. My guess is that this pehnomenon is more prominent when ENSO is not strong, which was also the case in 2010-'11. If you think about it, we did have the gradient throughout Dec, it was just further north than it was during the gradient Decembers that we remember fondly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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