Capt. Adam Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Is the Santabomb eastward move on this model run related to the modeled strengthening of the Monday system? When the Santabomb was forecast at its strongest a couple runs ago, we weren't seeing this Monday system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 the problem is the reason for the bust sunday is also messing up the pattern behind it. The trough in the east that would have created the storm threat Sunday is not digging nearly as much and the pac jet is flattening everything out. That means the cold that would have been available for the xmas period isnt there. The mean trough axis has pulled back into the midwest. Even if we continue to get these coastal low developments there is really no cold available, it would take a bomb and some luck, kinda like the 2002 storm to have it work out. It can happen, that wasnt really a good setup for snow in our area but the storm bombed out perfectly and we got a surprise, but even that had more cold around in front of it. The odds are really long. I'm sure you're analysis is spot on, but my point is that the same models that missed the pacific jet and it's ultimate homicide of this weekends storm probably aren't any more correct in their forecast of that same jet or any other features they are forecasting for the next 7 day lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wraparound love from the Euro . Snow maps show 1-2 verbatim. This storm has jumped hundreds of miles in what ..2 runs. Stay tuned till next run could be off the coast by then . Depends how you look at it....the primary is in freaking Green Bay Wisconsin...that doesnt scream snow no matter what the model shows, though secondary redevelopment could play some tricks but thats likely for Winchester-Hagerstown and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think part of the model problem is this. Probably 85% of the time when a big low moves thru northern california it continues ene-ne and through the western lakes. Recent stroms have instead assumed an east-ese move across the USA and then fizzle. Not sure why or even what impact but that is what is different than the norm and possibly why the models are the worst they have been since 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice look on the Euro ensembles per the disco in the NE subforum. Up until Day 10, they seem to strongly support a far western track for the 27th event and the GEFS generally agrees. As I said yesterday, it is disappointing that the days up to and after Christmas appear to be developing in an unfavorable way for snow in that period for us, the pattern absolutely IS changing and HAS changed from what it was earlier this month. And it IS evolving in a direction more favorable for snow for us. It's not there yet, but I think it's a "delayed not denied" sort of situation. We might not get much if any snow before the new year, but I think we'll get ours. It's frustrating, since I thought we'd be tracking a few threats by now, but I think we just need to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS seems to be leading with the d10-15 recently. Euro moved lock step today. Wes approves of this map. And before I get flamed for d15, the good stuff starts well before. As it looks right now, I would say between Xmas and the first couple days of Jan is the best look so far for a chance of accum snow. ETA the GEFS same day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS seems to be leading with the d10-15 recently. Euro moved lock step today. Wes approves of this map. And before I get flamed for d15, the good stuff starts well before. As it looks right now, I would say between Xmas and the first couple days of Jan is the best look so far for a chance of accum snow. boom.JPG ETA the GEFS same day boom2.JPG Pacific Jet looks suppressed too for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice look on the Euro ensembles per the disco in the NE subforum. Up until Day 10, they seem to strongly support a far western track for the 27th event and the GEFS generally agrees. As I said yesterday, it is disappointing that the days up to and after Christmas appear to be developing in an unfavorable way for snow in that period for us, the pattern absolutely IS changing and HAS changed from what it was earlier this month. And it IS evolving in a direction more favorable for snow for us. It's not there yet, but I think it's a "delayed not denied" sort of situation. We might not get much if any snow before the new year, but I think we'll get ours. It's frustrating, since I thought we'd be tracking a few threats by now, but I think we just need to be patient. I've got an outlook coming out soon though this year they haven't been that good. , i wrote the outlook about 5 hours ago but it hasn't been published yet so I can't comment too much though I don't see much in the progs to change my mind. As to Howard's comment about the reason the models have been having problems. My feeling is that the really fast flow in the Pacific has been the culprit. there have been too many impulses for one of them to really sharpen as they come east. Fast flow and lots of shortwaves makes it hard for the models to predict which ones might phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Santabomb goes wild on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Depends how you look at it....the primary is in freaking Green Bay Wisconsin...that doesnt scream snow no matter what the model shows, though secondary redevelopment could play some tricks but thats likely for Winchester-Hagerstown and west. It's not exactly a classic primary setup, if we were to somehow get a track near some of the more east Euro ensembles with a sub 985mb low I think all the major cities changeover to snow, that's a pretty substantial low to the east which will be driving in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I smell a forecast contest coming on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Santabomb goes wild on 18z gfs 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We should have a thread called Santa bomb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Guess the high temp on Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 67....this is one area we over achieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I've got an outlook coming out soon though this year they haven't been that good. , i wrote the outlook about 5 hours ago but it hasn't been published yet so I can't comment too much though I don't see much in the progs to change my mind. As to Howard's comment about the reason the models have been having problems. My feeling is that the really fast flow in the Pacific has been the culprit. there have been too many impulses for one of them to really sharpen as they come east. Fast flow and lots of shortwaves makes it hard for the models to predict which ones might phase. Thanks Mr J. I get some nice graphics from uswxforums and started following this 970 monster about 5 days ago. I don't think I have ever seen a portrayl like this where two lows become one monster that flops on it's back, moves up thru the central lakes while producing freezing temps in Louisiana and 60's in DC. Do you think this extreme prediction is also due to the fast flow and multiple impules you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Santabomb goes wild on 18z gfs woo storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 woo storms? winter cancelled, ready for spring. though I'm sure Ian thinks we suck at storms at least as much as we suck at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Thanks Mr J. I get some nice graphics from uswxforums and started following this 970 monster about 5 days ago. I don't think I have ever seen a portrayl like this where two lows become one monster that flops on it's back, moves up thru the central lakes while producing freezing temps in Louisiana and 60's in DC. Do you think this extreme prediction is also due to the fast flow and multiple impules you referenced. I think the fast flow will produce a big storm it you can get the phasing and if you finally get a decent ridge to the west of any developing storm and that's what we are going to and is the reason for a short break in the steady stream of California storms. Note how the is amplification taking place and there is 582 line at 500h at 108 hrs and that's when the amplification of the trough on the east side of the ridge really gets going. That trough and the strong upper level winds associated with a jet streak really start the development of the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 great GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 great GFS run! Looks like January is going to come in with a bang with tanking indicies. Maybe a little treat before that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like what I see on the GFS, weird how the NAO magically goes positive on the 1st though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like what I see on the GFS, weird how the NAO magically goes positive on the 1st though. Similar to last January, we did good. As long as the SE ridge doesn't come too far west we'll do fine this year also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 0z EURO has the 12/24-25 storm up to DET. 12/27 storm goes through Lake Superior. No cold thru 240 hours here, but approaching from the west. PAC jet creating some chaos but omega ridge building to cut that off long-range. Until then pattern favors storms to the west but as unstable as it is anything could happen post xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Lakes cutter on the EURO after that. Congrats Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Where be the block that we keep hearing about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Where be the block that we keep hearing about? Too many injuries on our offensive line... 3rd stringers just can't cut it. We're getting blitzed by warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 For a novice like me, DT's FB post this morning was educational and easily outlines the #SANTABOMB and the influences of our near-term weather. Good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And that is me believing the model on pattern change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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