ROOSTA Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pandemonium over one model run? REALLY? I say you get what you get and enjoy it. OT I was just out disassembling my instruments from off the roof. Another causality of being forced to move. The sensors are literally fused to the pole. GONE... Climbing ladders, barely able to walk is not fun, paying big time. I figure its November and have no expectations what-so-ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The euro is still a lot of snow here before we flip over. Big ice in the hills I think to o.yep, Kev and north have at least 9 before frzr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro snow map that DT posted on FB snow stars north of a Albany not much south of Mass uhm, I believe thats from last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 9" Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Regardless of back yard fetishes, it's a good start to winter as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tolland........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha to be fair the Upstate NY threads do not see as much traffic (outside of the Lake Effect snow threads)... wish we did have a more active user base up here! Too early to be giving us the congrats for the upcoming event! The ECMWF ensemble spread still had the majority in the weaker event camp (< 6") at 00z for ALB, so I'd very much like to see the ensemble distribution shift more in the operational run's direction before I start increasing confidence about this event. Still some pretty large differences between the GFS and ECMWF at this venture, although I'd certainly rather have the EC on my side for obvious reasons It looks like most of the GFS ensemble members have at least some QPF for ALB. Interestingly, the first EOF of the GFS ensemble is comprised of a midwest/coastal mid-atlantic dipole pattern, perhaps indicating a relationship between the clipper and coastal systems. Timing differences between ensemble members obviously also play a role in the modelled variance. I'll be in Albany for this system so hopefully we get at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 uhm, I believe thats from last night's run.No he fixed it i'm on phone so can't post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Maybe I worried for naught, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Regardless of back yard fetishes, it's a good start to winter as a whole.Agreed. And it is still autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 9" Steve? Yeah it looked more like 2-4/3-5 there before the flip. But I feel silly for obsessing over these verbatim outputs when it is still 84 hours out...it feels like this thing is 48 hours out instead, but there's still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Maybe I worried for naught,minimum 6 max 15 is what I am thinking today for you, subject to change tomorrow either way. I would say for me minimum 2 max 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Maybe I worried for naught, That euro solution is probably like 3-4 for you before a flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It looks like most of the GFS ensemble members have at least some QPF for ALB. Interestingly, the first EOF of the GFS ensemble is comprised of a midwest/coastal mid-atlantic dipole pattern, perhaps indicating a relationship between the clipper and coastal systems. Timing differences between ensemble members obviously also play a role in the modelled variance. I'll be in Albany for this system so hopefully we get at least a few inches. Looks like the 12z is updated, now the majority of the variance is explained by a high pressure monopole off of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah it looked more like 2-4/3-5 there before the flip. But I feel silly for obsessing over these verbatim outputs when it is still 84 hours out...it feels like this thing is 48 hours out instead, but there's still a ways to go.I think there's more precipitation than indicated due to that massive VV thump, past experience tells me that's a good .35 more before the flip, but it's so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If Ryan likes big ice in hills I'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like the 12z is updated, now the majority of the variance is explained by a high pressure monopole off of Cape Cod. I think that's for day 4. I posted the image of the day 3 analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If Ryan likes big ice in hills I'm fine with that Was thinking ORH county, Berks and nw hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If Ryan likes big ice in hills I'm fine with thatand if he didn't you wouldn't be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That euro solution is probably like 3-4 for you before a flipLooks like close to 0.75" falls with 850s below 0C at TOL, but low-level thicknesses had 2m temps are awfully marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like close to 0.75" falls with 850s below 0C at TOL, but low-level thicknesses had 2m temps are awfully marginal. The warm air probably punches in first above 850mb...I'd probably use the -2C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just realized the OP gets ALY to 0C at H7 but after most precip is through...but man that 700mb warmth gets inland, almost up to here too. Ahh that's a good point. It should be noted there really isn't a very intense high in place before the cyclone rides up the coast, so we have to keep an eye on the upcoming trends, especially if there continues to be more phasing between the upstream clipper shortwave and this southern stream shortwave. There is certainly still room for this to come further west. It looks like most of the GFS ensemble members have at least some QPF for ALB. Interestingly, the first EOF of the GFS ensemble is comprised of a midwest/coastal mid-atlantic dipole pattern, perhaps indicating a relationship between the clipper and coastal systems. Timing differences between ensemble members obviously also play a role in the modelled variance. I'll be in Albany for this system so hopefully we get at least a few inches. Very interesting... EOF 1 screams that the largest uncertainty related to this synoptic event is related to the phasing of the upstream clipper shortwave and downstream subtropical shortwave that will be providing the initial surface cyclogenesis. Basically the more separated the leading and trailing s/w rounding the base of the longwave trough are... the less phasing and less amplified solution (as seen in the parallel GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Euro ensembles coming west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pingfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think that's for day 4. I posted the image of the day 3 analysis. Oh right, Day 3 is a similar monopole, but off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The warm air probably punches in first above 850mb...I'd probably use the -2C line. The ECM gets ridiculously warm...looking at Wunderground maps, the 850 line is near High Point, NJ just southeast of the Catskills by 87 hours. Most of the Hudson Valley, NJ, and all of southern CT/RI/Mass is rain! Temperatures crash quickly but it gets really toasty as the 850mb is ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No he fixed it i'm on phone so can't post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Euro ensembles coming west of 0z East of 12z op though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That euro solution is probably like 3-4 for you before a flip Flip to what? ip, rn, zr? all of the above? Haha to be fair the Upstate NY threads do not see as much traffic (outside of the Lake Effect snow threads)... wish we did have a more active user base up here! Too early to be giving us the congrats for the upcoming event! The ECMWF ensemble spread still had the majority in the weaker event camp (< 6") at 00z for ALB, so I'd very much like to see the ensemble distribution shift more in the operational run's direction before I start increasing confidence about this event. Still some pretty large differences between the GFS and ECMWF at this venture, although I'd certainly rather have the EC on my side for obvious reasons It's great to have a met in the capital district to opine on things--and hopefully weenie out at times with those of us living where no one lives. The 700mb warm push gets basically to Saratoga springs would be ironic if the bullseye is the southern dacks to NNE Lake Placid ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 East of 12z op though. Just Comparing ensemble runs not the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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