Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well Walt Drag Jr. has spoken..not sure if using the GFS/Sref's as basis is great..but he admits i's all low confidence Benjamin Sipprell @SipprellWx 14m 14 minutes ago Seeing a spread among TV-mets, weather enthusiasts, & wish-casters. Went GFS / SREF. Find my thoughts here: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201411232117-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Any takers that the GFS comes West?? I think it's going to come west of 12z. You can tell right away that gfs may come in further west. Check out the heights out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Anyone hitting the refresh button on their respective model websites? About 10 minutes until the moment of truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thats why I am not totally ready to throw in the towel yet. I mentioned early that the gfs has pretty much been as steady as the euro in terms of holding its solution. They are just worlds apart in what the final outcome is. The gfs hasn't flopped around....yet So does this mean you have it in hand with your arm cocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup. It's subtle but slightly more west of 12z with the key antecedent features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thats why I am not totally ready to throw in the towel yet. I mentioned early that the gfs has pretty much been as steady as the euro in terms of holding its solution. They are just worlds apart in what the final outcome is. The gfs hasn't flopped around....yet Oh I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel...we've still got 3 solid days worth of model runs to go. Its actually more rare to have models stay consistent for 72-90 hours. Subtle shifts of features and its a different ball game. Folks just live and die by the Euro, but really not much has changed since this morning except another EURO run didn't budge. This tracks just inside the benchmark and everyone gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You can tell right away that gfs may come in further west. Check out the heights out west. I wasn't even looking at those...just a gut feeling that west today is the trend. But what you said is certainly a great clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So does this mean you have it in hand with your arm cocked? Pretty much lol. Like an NFL official, won't take much for me to throw it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup. It's subtle but slightly more west of 12z with the key antecedent features. slight is better than dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty much lol. Like an NFL official, won't take much for me to throw it lol Always a good idea to keep it in the back pocket until the final 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel...we've still got 3 solid days worth of model runs to go. Its actually more rare to have models stay consistent for 72-90 hours. Subtle shifts of features and its a different ball game. Folks just live and die by the Euro, but really not much has changed since this morning except another EURO run didn't budge. This tracks just inside the benchmark and everyone gets clobbered. Yup. Admittedly, it is tough to go against the euro. It is really far west though. I mean it feels like four a couple runs now we are surprised it continued to tick west. The sensible weather and travel impact differences between the models are astounding though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What I do when a new model comes out is create 2 tabs. One for the previous one and then one for the one coming in. As each time frame comes in I compare it with the previous run. It kind of adds a degree of suspense. After the run is through I come back to AMWX and read the remarks. Its kind of eating a good dessert slowly. I'm weird! C ya in a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well Walt Drag Jr. has spoken..not sure if using the GFS/Sref's as basis is great..but he admits i's all low confidence Benjamin Sipprell @SipprellWx 14m 14 minutes ago Seeing a spread among TV-mets, weather enthusiasts, & wish-casters. Went GFS / SREF. Find my thoughts here: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201411232117-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX … That's a great AFD...great technical discussion. I can see why you guys say Walt Drag Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Still not like the euro though. Just a step toward it at least out to 48 hours comparing 54 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not going to be dramatic IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What I do when a new model comes out is create 2 tabs. One for the previous one and then one for the one coming in. As each time frame comes in I compare it with the previous run. It kind of adds a degree of suspense. After the run is through I come back to AMWX and read the remarks. Its kind of eating a good dessert slowly. I'm weird! C ya in a bit.... Yup, Easiest waay to pick up changes, I also do that with the H5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think this is actually going to go 50 miles further west vs 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It looks west of the 12z early, Heights are higher out in the pac west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's going to be a humdinger unless gfs farts beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup, Easiest waay to pick up changes, I also do that with the H5 maps This site helps me a lot for run to run comparisons: http://www.wxforecaster.com/runtorun/all.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's going to be a humdinger unless gfs farts beyond 72 hours. Oh the SUSPENSE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 not loading for me at all. Did look like the heights out west and the 50-50 low were in different positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sharper troff digging south it will be west of 12z, Surface low over hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 72 hours and the low is over HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks a little stronger and a little further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 75hr 1002 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's a great AFD...great technical discussion. I can see why you guys say Walt Drag Jr. He's a good met..still young..but talented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ahhh we only get to do this like 12-14 more times before the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 System opens up east of nj. Gfs is an awful model. Big hit nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ahhh we only get to do this like 12-14 more times before the storm hits. haha.. yeah 81hr 996.. getting clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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