dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice ens run. Close to an ACK track on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 EC ensembles track it over ACK up to Eastport, ME or just east of there. They are west of 00z, but not by a lot. Kind of similar to the shift in the OP run. They don't really help us too much in figuring out the OP standing. I would hope for more convergence between the two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh right, Day 3 is a similar monopole, but off NC. It relates to the same shortwave south of AK though. You can follow the uncertainty back in time to initialization there. So higher heights out west should produce a deeper Great Lakes low, and a less deep East Coast low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 East of 12z op though.True, but still takes the low track essentially right over Nantucket with a ton of slop snow across the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice ens run. Close to an ACK track on the mean.just inside BM, with that juice it would be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 700 mb 0C rocketed north of 850 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice ens run. Close to an ACK track on the mean. That sounds great actually. That seems west of 00z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOL, that shows about an inch for most of CT...if you are looking for snow in CT...that aint the solution you want to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It relates to the same shortwave south of AK though. You can follow the uncertainty back in time to initialization there. So higher heights out west should produce a deeper Great Lakes low, and a less deep East Coast low. Well the ridge out west actually helped bring the low closer to the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just inside BM, with that juice it would be a great storm. Yup snow bomb track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 700 mb 0C rocketed north of 850 0C. Maybe a crapload of lift below 700 dynamically cooling that layer enough to retard the northward advance of warm air? Doesn't seem like a situation where you would have severely sloped warm air in an overrunning set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ensembles are west. Gives some credence to the OP, though not as extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man there are a couple ensembles over like ALB and one that looks like its over Lake Ontario or Syracuse. Wow those weren't there yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That would be what I had anticipated last night as the upper end for GC. Funny that my expectations now would be due to it running too far west than east. What a difference a couple model runs make. One thing to note that lends credence to the western push by all models is that things are being sampled better as noted earlier as the pieces of the puzzle become feet dry off the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What are we looking at with the Euro on the strength of the storm as it's passing by Nantucket or inland like the Op showed?? 990mb? 985mb?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well the ridge out west actually helped bring the low closer to the coast though. It does, but apparently the ensembles have a lot of variance in strength. Less so in position with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Maybe a crapload of lift below 700 dynamically cooling that layer enough to retard the northward advance of warm air? Doesn't seem like a situation where you would have severely sloped warm air in an overrunning set up. Yeah the Vvs probably helped make this an aggregate bomb for awhile near ORH and into the Lakes region for sure. You can see the warming in the mid levels sort of slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I've been thinking something like the previous 2 euro runs. Got to ride the Euro hard and not surprised to see the GFS gradually coming west. But there's no reason to select the most west of all the euro runs as the most likely solution. Think this might be the most west run we see. I'm still tossing the GFS, but think it probably ends up a bit east of the most recent 12 ecm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man there are a couple ensembles over like ALB and one that looks like its over Lake Ontario or Syracuse. Wow those weren't there yesterday. Explains why they shifted west........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It does, but apparently the ensembles have a lot of variance in strength. Less so in position with the 12z run. The trend has certainly been there so we shall see. My confidence is shaken, but I can't help but think we'll see a tickle east of this 12z euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 There's a pretty solid clustering of a lot of the members over or just E of ACK I would think just looking at the 5H spaghetti plots. Can't see the actual low locations, but that is less relevant to me anyway than looking at the upper air trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 BTW that is a neat site Chris. Was playing with it earlier. Will do so again later and try to get a better understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For this event I'm glad to be locating 2.5 degrees further west than mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice ens run. Close to an ACK track on the mean. I love that track. I really, really love that track. But--I'm really beginning to fear a CT or Hudson river track. If so, we'll wait for the next one. 700 mb 0C rocketed north of 850 0C. Would that end up being paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Explains why they shifted west........lol Lot fewer lows to the east too...there's like very few if any that look like the GGEM/NAM. Pretty crazy switch. Jeez I just saw ensembles 27-51...couple of those are over BTV. A bunch over mainland New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOL, that shows about an inch for most of CT...if you are looking for snow in CT...that aint the solution you want to verifyusing surface temps as snow determination fail. Its like no one has a memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's great to have a met in the capital district to opine on things--and hopefully weenie out at times with those of us living where no one lives. Oh I get excited with the best of them... although I try to stay as objective as possible. I do have access to the ECMWF ensembles on weatherbell, so I'd be happy to pass along any information in text form about the ensemble distribution when it comes out... yesterday's 12z cycle had pretty much even chances of a big snowstorm (> 6") a moderate snowstorm (2-6") or little to nothing (< 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems to be a pretty decent cluster pretty far west. Pretty big change actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lot fewer lows to the east too...there's like very few if any that look like the GGEM/NAM. Pretty crazy switch. Jeez I just saw ensembles 27-51...couple of those are over BTV. A bunch over mainland New England. Your post and Wills are in opposition. As much as I love you, I have to side with the sne wx focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Actually pretty simple to see when looping the individual ensembles...if this phases well those lows get ripped well inland. Would be a problem even up here. They just get like sucked west, almost like a 2010 type evolution. The partial phase is what we want and keeps the storm near ACK or the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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