powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Skyrockets in flight, deformation delight...all the way back to SLK Haha yeah that's all I was hinting at, the mid level plots show deformation across NNY because this run is so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Would the Euro give any snow south of pike? I realize it's too far west, but just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's so far west we get dry slotted as the deform band is over NNY into Quebec. Good lord.yea after 1.75 qpf, still going to forecast cloudy Thanksgiving day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Would the Euro give any snow south of pike? I realize it's too far west, but just wondering Yes. Probably a good 2-4 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So we talk about convective feedback all the time...is something funky happening with too much Gulf convection and latent heat release to have the model pump the ridge excessively? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Why? It just made an 'enormous shift' west. It can only shift to the left? Euro wasnt an enormous shift west, it was a modest westward shift...it was already pretty far west...it just seems like an enormous shift, because we were all kind of expecting it to come east, but it went a little further west. And a modest shift west from the previous solution has large implications on sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So we talk about convective feedback all the time...is something funky happening with too much Gulf convection and latent heat release to have the model pump the ridge excessively? I don't see that as a glaring issue. This is justt a more amped ridge out west leading to amplification out east. The error would be how the ridge is modeled and the downstream effects on the s/w interactions. Convective feedback is slowly becoming a weenie term with little relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yea after 1.75 qpf, still going to forecast cloudy Thanksgiving day? Does that make my statement any less correct about where the deform zone is? Certainly not going to spike the football, this looks to have a high burn rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I thought this didn't have a chance of coming west or cutting? What is happening? Lol remember when this a cutter on Black Friday several days ago?! My 80 km ECMWF at work shows 700 torching first, 850 hangs on just to your south. We know the drill on this type of evolution anyway. That amount of QPF wouldn't occur after the dry slot, so the significant mixed precip isn't too much of a worry after the thump. Now northeast of you verbatim would taint pretty good. Yeah there's mixing all the way to central Vermont for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Will is right, that's still quite the dumping from the city on north, esp north into VT and NH. You can see how the mid level warm advection slows a bit thanks to huge upward vertical motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Why? It just made an 'enormous shift' west. It can only shift to the left? Its shifted west the past 3-4 runs. For it to move east enough to make it look anything like the gfs, highly unlikely. The euro gives 1-3 inches to places the gfs gives over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Panic has set in on here...lol, I would not sweat it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hate to be a pain as I am in CNY forum but does Euro throw meaningful precip back to SYR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets.. If the ens stay the same do we think the op is too amped? But if the mean shifts west, does that give the cutter idea more credence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Air travel will be majorly screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol remember when this a cutter on Black Friday several days ago?! Yeah there's mixing all the way to central Vermont for a time. Verbatim that would be close to a top November storm for BGM-ALB-BTV corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It really has no where to go but east. Oops. Congrats. Not as nice for GC--lotsa lotsa taint after some front end. Could be worse. And still might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Panic has set in on here...lol, I would not sweat it right now Yeah it's one run when every other piece of guidance besides the UKMET is much further east. I mean every piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does that make my statement any less correct about where the deform zone is? Certainly not going to spike the football, this looks to have a high burn rate. now that EVERY model trends west , slam that pig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I don't see that as a glaring issue. This is justt a more amped ridge out west leading to amplification out east. The error would be how the ridge is modeled and the downstream effects on the s/w interactions. Convective feedback is slowly becoming a weenie term with little relevance. True. It's probably more frequent you see convective feedback drag a low center too far south or east (where the modeled instability would be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets.. If the ens stay the same do we think the op is too amped? But if the mean shifts west, does that give the cutter idea more credence? Yes...but I expect the ensembles to shift west. I still believe the OP is too amped, but I am definitely less confident in that idea after 3 consecutive runs pretty far west with this run being the most amped yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets.. If the ens stay the same do we think the op is too amped? But if the mean shifts west, does that give the cutter idea more credence? Jeezus dude, Come up for air.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That sucks hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 now that EVERY model trends west , slam that pig These big stakes events make me squirm, I couldn't be a pro met lol. I'm better at if option A happens, this is how it affects the ski area. If option B happens this is what we are looking at. 84 hours out and the NAM is partly sunny in SNE, while the EURO drives a bomb into mainland New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yikes, I'll be clearing crusted cement here if the Euro is correct. Maybe I'll get a new belt for the snow blower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The differences between the euro and gfs at 3 days is pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 True. It's probably more frequent you see convective feedback drag a low center too far south or east (where the modeled instability would be). Yeah that's more like it. I guess what I mean, is that some people overuse the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah it's one run when every other piece of guidance besides the UKMET is much further east. I mean every piece of guidance. Even the Ukie is decently east of the Euro, but definitely the 2nd furthest west piece of guidance. I mean, at 96 hours, it has the low sitting over Eastport ME or even into Nova Scotia while the Euro is over PWM. But you sitll have to weight the Euro pretty heavily, even if it an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Verbatim that would be close to a top November storm for BGM-ALB-BTV corridor. Too bad no one lives there. Aside from you, Rick and Andy (where are they anyway?). Does the EC track it over the Cape? Tough to tell on the maps I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You know the old saying. Save a horse, ride the model that gives you the most snow If the euro goes west tonight. Tossing in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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