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phoenixny

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  1. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    14" for Phoenix as well. Went to bed with about 1.5" and some sleet mixing around 10 PM so it cranked overnight.
  2. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Hey guys, Anyone ever have issues with the Davis Pro rain gauge? Mine stopped reading and have done all the troubleshooting except replace the reed switch. Anyone have to replace the reed switch? It's the wired Pro.Thanks.
  3. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Gotta be pushing 2" per in West Phoenix now. Keep walking outside! Crazy.
  4. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Big, fat, wet flakes here. Sticking to everything and probably 1" per hour stuff.
  5. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TYX-N0Q-1-24 Looks to be intensifying a bit on the way down south. Thinking this is putting out 1 to 2 per hour type stuff. Doppler 9 is showing a widening yellow in center.
  6. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Dock that meteorologist a days pay for napping on the job. and it's Hedley. haha I think we do ok with this one. Would not be surprised if we go to WSW for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Time will tell. Still think Wed. am is rough until the sun gets higher.
  7. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Sure hate to see ya like that Mr. Taggart. Maybe this will pep you up. Given the considerations above, and the continued upward trend in QPF for the 12Z and 18Z model guidance, have expanded the winter weather advisory to cover the entire CWA. For the new areas added, it will run from early Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. It is possible that some areas may approach warning criteria snow if the more aggressive 12KM NAM and 3KM NAM solutions verify, but confidence is not high enough yet to jump on warnings for parts of the area. Expect storm totals to reach 5-8 inches for much of the area, with local amounts of a 10-14 inches across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The lowest accumulations are likely to be along the Lake Erie shore and Niagara River (including Buffalo and Niagara Falls) where influence from northwest upslope flow is lowest, and also along the Genesee River in Livingston and Allegany counties (due to downsloping).
  8. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    NAM gets us good with wraparound Tuesday night and Wednesday. Travel issues Wednesday morning with that output.
  9. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Gonna be a mess in and around Syracuse for next couple of hours. Time for an advisory or what?!!!
  10. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I have been out of a job ever since. In retrospect, we have had three big snowstorms in the last 1.5 years. Nov. 2016 was a 2 to 3 ft dump locally. Last March storm was a 2ft + deal and last Friday was 15 to 30 areawide. Lived here a long time so not too shabby in my opinion. Problem is it can melt so dam fast. I am ready for 40's and 50's on a regular basis. Next Saturday might end up real nice.
  11. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I did mean millimeters when I made that prediction
  12. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I love my 10 to 20
  13. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Starting to think this is a 10 to 20 area wide starting tonight and ending Saturday morning with some lull periods. Having a hard time finding a time period with the greatest chance of warning criteria snow(barring a westward shift tomorrow afternoon and evening with heavy snow axis). Thursday night and Friday morning might be the worst around here drivewise.
  14. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Updated Discussion from Bing: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 730 pm update... Issued winter weather advisory for row of counties west of the winter storm warning since we are forecasting advisory amounts and decision makers need the information this evening regarding travel, school and other closures this evening. Also we bumped up snow amounts in grids to better match neighboring offices snowfall for our statewide and regional partners and also to match WPC amounts better. 18Z guidance from the NAM 3km and the 2.5 km Canadian have come in with heavier snow west to near I-81 with amounts in the 8-12" inch range in the western part of our winter storm warning area. I also bumped up snow amounts from Otsego and Delaware counties south to northeast Pa where these higher resolution models have a solid 10-20". Both of these models did very well with last Friday`s snowstorm. The 18z GFS has backed off a bit with snow amounts running 6"-12" east of a Rome NY to Towanda, Pa line with the highest in the Poconos to Delaware/Sullivan Counties in NY. We are also concerned with snowfall intensity late Wednesday morning into afternoon/evening. Snowfall rates could reach 3" per hour in our eastern areas, east of I-81. I look for where the 700 mb temperature gradient sets up and of course this leads to strong frontogenetic forcing and intense snow banding. The 18Z GFS has this gradient between the lower Hudson valley and Upper Mohawk Valley. The 18z NAM has this gradient moving across central NY Wednesday but really tightening up over the Catskills by 00z Thursday. This again suggests very heavy snow just the northwest of this. The NAM 3km, which is too fine of resolution to look at thermal fields, has 2-3" per hour rates which supports the 12km NAM thermal fields and frontogenetical forcing. This all suggests strong forcing which would support heavier snow in the Catskills, Delaware/Otsego/Sullivan counties in NY and northeast PA. In these areas I upped amounts to 10-16"... locally 20 inches. Now west of this area there will be a drop off in snow amounts which really is difficult to determine exactly where the 6-12 inch amounts fall off to a few inches. Right now we are running this line from Oneida Lake to Owego, NY and far eastern Bradford County in PA. One more point, we are not expecting a wet snow from this storm as thermal profiles all have temperatures between -5C to-15C in the snow production zone from MSV to AVP on BUFKIT which have the warmest profiles in our forecast area. So even if surface temperatures are close to freezing, temperatures aloft will be cold enough to make for a more powdery snow than a wet snow. We are looking at snow to liquid ratios of 12-13 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. Updated grids, snow amounts and winter weather message to reflect changes. Previous discussion is below
  15. phoenixny

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Phoenix picked up 9" inches. Power is flickering here as well. Very pretty outside with the caked on snow.
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