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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS would give places like Saratoga, NY to Manchester, VT a good deal of snow.  With places about 40 miles south like Albany, NY to North Adams, MA maybe getting an inch or two.  A small change in the orientation of the frontside thermal boundary is going to make a big difference in snowfall accumulations.  The low level cold is impressive but right now it's displaced just to the NW.  The 06z had more of a N-S gradient initially while the 12z is more SW to NE.  If the foreign models are right it won't matter much for SNE anyway.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

This is a good illustration of what i mentioned, Just need to look at the high on the back side of the low in Canada, 06z had it further into Zanada and 12z looks like it slides down the backside south into the US, Which looks tp put more emphasis on the cold air coming in on the back side.

 

06z

 

gemreg06_PT.17.gif?t=1394552772

 

12z

 

gemreg12_PT.15.gif?t=1394552884

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

even with this being mainly rain I think alot of us down here are in for an exciting couple hours 1 to 4 inches on the backside?

 

 

yes, most guidance supports a few hours of snow at the end. We might actually have lighter snow lingering for much of Thursday during the day.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the GFS cut back QPF on the Maine mountains quite a bit?  What happened there?

 

I don't see anything aloft that argues for a drastic cut back on QPF there. Snow growth zone still has plenty of RH and lift, but the QPF all gets focused on the low level front for a 6 hour block. I'm not worried.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I don't see anything aloft that argues for a drastic cut back on QPF there. Snow growth zone still has plenty of RH and lift, but the QPF all gets focused on the low level front for a 6 hour block. I'm not worried.

 

 

QPF Queens shutter in their boots.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I shudder thinking of your spelling...  I am weary of this storm

 

 

Lol..I'm normally a good speller...missed that one. But we're a science board, not an english forum thankfully.

 

And yes, I know one lock in any storm is that you are "weary". :lol:

 

 

I don't think a few inches at the end is unreasonable at all though for N ORH county.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

It does make sense to have heavy precip along that front with cold nrly winds basically muscling their way south.

 

Cheap midnight highs Thursday to what is going to be a brutal mid March day.

 

Definitely going to be strong forcing along the low level front, but frontogenesis back in the cold air will produce just fine in the mountains. NAM12 QPF actually looks halfway decent.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Lol..I'm normally a good speller...missed that one. But we're a science board, not an english forum thankfully.

And yes, I know one lock in any storm is that you are "weary". :lol:

I don't think a few inches at the end is unreasonable at all though for N ORH county.

Dave's grumpy. Heckuva storm shaping up.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

QPF Queens shutter in their boots.

 

Haha, its a prog for a reason though... its just something I was thinking about if that convergence along the front was robbing the QPF output in Maine.  There should be no reason with that strong southeasterly flow that the models wouldn't blast that area, which is why I found it odd.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Definitely going to be strong forcing along the low level front, but frontogenesis back in the cold air will produce just fine in the mountains. NAM12 QPF actually looks halfway decent.

 

Yeah it looks good for the mtns. The GFS tries sending some drier air towards the Maine coast, but not sure if that's a correct feature. I guess it's possible cstl areas may get brushed by it, but the foothills..etc look awesome.  That flow from 850-700 is perfect for the mtns.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

1977 posts?   

 

someone out to start a storm-based thread, as this one is conceptual and always has been, and is too long at this point... 

 

I will mention on Taunton's behalf:

"BEAUTIFUL SPRING LIKE DAY UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A MILD START...850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFTEN ALLOWS TEMPS TO EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL GO WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON."

 

Amazing out of doors! If you can, part-take.  The March sun combined with typical lag in CAA post fropa, on a down slope flow was pointed out yesterday as a sneaking under the radar gem... I'm sitting here typing with my front door ajar, and it doesn't bother me much that the breeze passing in is 50F air; it just needs to arrive!

 

******

 

Multi-faceted storm to impact all of New England.  This storm is large in areal coverage.  Impact contention will center around p-type more than amounts.  Interesting to see so many uniform QPF numbers from BTV to PWM to BOS and ALB... All within a 1/4" liq equiv totals, all well over an inch -- that's quite the large area for so many +1 or +2 SD -type numbers.  

 

Not sure what to make of the 06 and 12z NAM solutions being so much colder than the 00z, to mention the antecedent well-established trend of being a warmish storm for SNE. Now, ...just using the differential between ALB and BOS from off the NAM's FRH grid would flag impacting accumulations of sleet and ice along Rt 2, and perhaps down as far as the Pike in western MA, with more snow ... possibly plowable in the end 1/3 of the events duration -- certainly advisory in scale if not more.  

 

I realize that the 12z NAM is just an ever so tiny tick warmer than the 06z, but together, on whole, the two runs represent a significant paradigm shift for what this event might mean for the Worcester Hills and out along the Mohawk Trail.  Taunton had better hope it is wrong, because otherwise they would really need to step up some notification/awareness for those zones where currently there is none.  Although, all statements by NWS caries the coveted in or "around" statement ..so yeah.  

 

Having said that, it's the NAM...still 48 hours out... I could see it coming in blazing again at 18z here this afternoon, while the Euro arrives stolid and unflinching.  It just that this is very uneasy to see the GFS, 06z be almost as cool ?  

 

...Someone's getting their forecast arse handed to them, model or man. I guess a gambler would have to side with the Euro, given to its giant, unstoppable intelligence with matters inside of 4 days ... But, the heart ... something doesn't "feel" right about this.

 

Still, these balmy days like this, where/when we are looking ahead to sort of race to get cold in before a given storm leaves ... They always seem to lose that race. At least where ever I have been. Ends up starting as rain and wet-bulbing down to 40; then it rains real hard for 9 hours as the temp falls to 36F, when 'cat's paws' start blatting windshields, then ... it's suddenly 25F with flurries whipping around. And the advisory turned out 30 mi too far SE.  Nice little story with a chaffed ending.

 

But what might set this apart from that typology is that this cold is harsh and and sudden. It's coming in like a p-wave off a bomb blast. In fact, though the QPF is entirely pedestrian at LGA, they are actually NAM-modeled with just a fantastic 6 hour crash:

 

36014987746 02298 841920 57101206

42017836204 -0607 893325 38939400    ...Marvel at that!  50 to 19 F in 6 hours is absolutely stunning for a synoptic scaled event. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Lol..I'm normally a good speller...missed that one. But we're a science board, not an english forum thankfully.

 

And yes, I know one lock in any storm is that you are "weary". :lol:

 

 

I don't think a few inches at the end is unreasonable at all though for N ORH county.

Yeah... I could see 3" near the border with Jaffrey, maybe 1" near me...

 

Anyway, the streats will be kleen

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Haha, its a prog for a reason though... its just something I was thinking about if that convergence along the front was robbing the QPF output in Maine.  There should be no reason with that strong southeasterly flow that the models wouldn't blast that area, which is why I found it odd.

 

 

Right, models prog QPF...and its among the worst scoring parameters. Perhaps this run got a ltitle over-zealous with the low-level CF. There's a lot of small nuances that will affect qpf on models which are not necessarily reality.

 

It could be right too, but you would probably want to see several runs do that and across a majority of model guidance.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Haha, its a prog for a reason though... its just something I was thinking about if that convergence along the front was robbing the QPF output in Maine.  There should be no reason with that strong southeasterly flow that the models wouldn't blast that area, which is why I found it odd.

 

It can happen...but who knows if it's correct, the mtns will get buried, and the temp profiles aloft probably are more concerning. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Definitely going to be strong forcing along the low level front, but frontogenesis back in the cold air will produce just fine in the mountains. NAM12 QPF actually looks halfway decent.

 

Just looking more closely at the setup... I think it looks great for many of the mountains in VT/NH/ME. Should really rip.

 

One thing that's somewhat unusual on the 00z Euro was how tilted the mid level lows are. 850mb low over like Northampton Mass and 700mb low over Burlington VT!

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