Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[moneypitmike]

I guess some can't deal with the facts that there getting rain and others are getting snow

 

I'm not sure what's worse......rain or cirrus.  I guess it depends on whether you're trying to preserve a pack.  The stale stuff we have here is not worth preserving.  At least we'll get a couple inches to mask the devastation that's ensuing between today's warmth and the upcoming monsoon.

 

49.6/28

[CoastalWx]

Euro is close to a mess for Brian. It gets a warm punch in above 950 it appears while the surface is below 32, but 20-30 miles north is all snow. This is for about 4-6 hrs or so. I haven't had time to dig too deeply, but the 850-700 critical thickness line is literally 20 miles north of the 0C isotherm at 850. So the sleet/snow line is not too far off from your 850mb 0C isotherm perhaps. Somehow I feel like those CAD spots may be a tad cooler than that at 850.

[dryslot]

I'm not sure what's worse......rain or cirrus.  I guess it depends on whether you're trying to preserve a pack.  The stale stuff we have here is not worth preserving.  At least we'll get a couple inches to mask the devastation that's ensuing between today's warmth and the upcoming monsoon.

 

49.6/28

 

I would side with the cirrus, But i do have pack i am trying to preserve...............

[CoastalWx]

Man from about LCI to PWM...that is a very tough call. Even to LEW. At least on the euro.

[dryslot]

Euro is close to a mess for Brian. It gets a warm punch in above 950 it appears while the surface is below 32, but 20-30 miles north is all snow. This is for about 4-6 hrs or so. I haven't had time to dig too deeply, but the 850-700 critical thickness line is literally 20 miles north of the 0C isotherm at 850. So the sleet/snow line is not too far off from your 850mb 0C isotherm perhaps. Somehow I feel like those CAD spots may be a tad cooler than that at 850.

 

 I think i am in the same boat here

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm not sure what's worse......rain or cirrus.  I guess it depends on whether you're trying to preserve a pack.  The stale stuff we have here is not worth preserving.  At least we'll get a couple inches to mask the devastation that's ensuing between today's warmth and the upcoming monsoon.

 

49.6/28

I would not mind seeing the roads get clean at this point.   My snowpack, while fairly deep, is a solid slab of concrete not really fun for much other than to look at.  Wachusett will be in fine shape for a few more weeks

[CoastalWx]

You may be able to factor in the models perhaps underestimating the cold push south, but the temps aloft are going to be a tough one.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Euro is close to a mess for Brian. It gets a warm punch in above 950 it appears while the surface is below 32, but 20-30 miles north is all snow. This is for about 4-6 hrs or so. I haven't had time to dig too deeply, but the 850-700 critical thickness line is literally 20 miles north of the 0C isotherm at 850. So the sleet/snow line is not too far off from your 850mb 0C isotherm perhaps. Somehow I feel like those CAD spots may be a tad cooler than that at 850.

For CAD prone areas around him, would freezing rain be a concern?

[dryslot]

Man from about LCI to PWM...that is a very tough call. Even to LEW. At least on the euro.

 

I wish we could just toss it and say its wrong, But you really can't although it has been to warm before

[Damage In Tolland]

I wish we could just toss it and say its wrong, But you really can't although it has been to warm before

Really? When has the Euro been too warm? I remember times when it's been too cold..but not too warm

[dryslot]

Upgrade, Talk about being on the edge, lol, I sit on the 8-10" 14-18" contour

 

[TalcottWx]

Bridgton jackpot

[CoastalWx]

For CAD prone areas around him, would freezing rain be a concern?

Believe it or not, the euro has a narrow ZR area near him..but I don't know if I buy that. Seems like IP might be more of an issue instead of ZR.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I wish we could just toss it and say its wrong, But you really can't although it has been to warm before

 

In general it seems like an RGEM/Euro compromise has been the way to go in borderline situations all winter at this range.

[N. OF PIKE]

I have seen that gyx map pull out the 14-18 and 18-24's so many times to get burned, they dont really go conservative on totals much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Is there a limit to how far NW the mid-level warmth can push in this set up?

Any further and PF will be the only one posting in the obs thread tomorrow night. lol

[ORH_wxman]

Is there a limit to how far NW the mid-level warmth can push in this set up?

Any further and PF will be the only one posting in the obs thread tomorrow night. lol

 

 

The PV to the north and the progressive flow will put a limit on it...I'd be surprised if it went any further NW, though maybe that is a relative term...this system ceases to surprise now...its been torture on the NWP guidance.

[dryslot]

I have seen that gyx map pull out the 14-18 and 18-24's so many times to get burned, they dont really go conservative on totals much.

 

Well, The qpf numbers the models are spitting certainly i would think justify some of these this time, I mean 1.75-2.00"+

[Damage In Tolland]

Does anyone recall a time when the Euro was too warm?

[dryslot]

Does anyone recall a time when the Euro was too warm?

 

Yeah, Steve does

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, Steve does

Since no mets seem to..I think there's very few cases

[ORH_wxman]

Does anyone recall a time when the Euro was too warm?

 

 

I recall during the ice storm in Dec 2008, it kept trying to run the low through PSF until like 24 hours out.

[MainePhotog]

Upgrade, Talk about being on the edge, lol, I sit on the 8-10" 14-18" contour

 

Upgraded to a warning here too. I'm on the edge of the 8"-10" and 10"-14" contours. Must say that I'm pleasantly surprised.

[dryslot]

Since no mets seem to..I think there's very few cases

 

He says its often when the Euro gets to wound up in his area, And i have seen where its thermals have been off here to

[wxeyeNH]

Euro is close to a mess for Brian. It gets a warm punch in above 950 it appears while the surface is below 32, but 20-30 miles north is all snow. This is for about 4-6 hrs or so. I haven't had time to dig too deeply, but the 850-700 critical thickness line is literally 20 miles north of the 0C isotherm at 850. So the sleet/snow line is not too far off from your 850mb 0C isotherm perhaps. Somehow I feel like those CAD spots may be a tad cooler than that at 850.

Thanks for the update, Coastal.  I am 20 miles NNW of Brian.  Will be interesting to watch my webcam and weather station tomorrow and his.  

[N. OF PIKE]

Well, The qpf numbers the models are spitting certainly i would think justify some of these this time, I mean 1.75-2.00"+

Ya this time, perhaps. I dont recall seeing them under in a event 90% of time (this winter)

[MarkO]

Upgraded to a warning here too. I'm on the edge of the 8"-10" and 10"-14" contours. Must say that I'm pleasantly surprised.

Same here (Thornton) although I've been in the 14-18 on nearly every map. This one actually has 18-24 less than 5 miles away.

 

Not sure what Kev was talking about this not looking good for NH. Most of the state is above a foot.

[Damage In Tolland]

Same here (Thornton) although I've been in the 14-18 on nearly every map. This one actually has 18-24 less than 5 miles away.

 

Not sure what Kev was talking about this not looking good for NH. Most of the state is above a foot.

If you wanted all snow.the Euro gets sleet and ZR past MWN

[Ginx snewx]

Really? When has the Euro been too warm? I remember times when it's been too cold..but not too warm

Several times during our big wound up storms it verified too warm at mid levels, Jan 11 being the one I remember best.

[dryslot]

Ya this time, perhaps. I dont recall seeing them under in a event 90% of time (this winter)

 

They do change them quite often though, And would not be surprised to see it get changed once or twice more as well before the the system gets going