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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

The crickets in this thread are disheartening.   Part of me is looking forward to the rain cleaning up the streets/driveways/parking lots a bit.

 

The glacier that will be frozen afterwards will be pretty solid

 

That's because nobody cares about ski conditions at Sunday River.

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted

1-2ft of snow here on the 6z NAM and GFS. I wonder if any TV mets bite this morning.

 

heading your way either early tomorrow or after lunch thurs.  Gunstock or bust.

 

My morning weather update for Gilford included rain, sleet and ice....along with snow. Big change since yesterday.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The 06z southward drop was interesting....it wasn't limited to the NCEP models as the RGEM did it too (though not quite to the extent as GFS/NAM). Just caught up on the 00z Euro which is really ugly pretty far north...might even get sleet at one point to Sunday River/Bethel ME and up through Coos County NH.

 

 

The difference between a track through LI and SE MA and one over POU over to BOS is a big deal for sensible wx for a lot posters....SNE for sure, but even into most of CNE. Far NNE, it makes zero difference...they aren't missing the good snows regardless of the track within the realistic goal posts right now.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

Wow, just took  a quick look at the NAM, GFS and ECMWF. WTF happened since last night??!?! NAM and GFS come south, I get a little excited, even for here in Lowell, but then ECM goes north.

 

What is the Canadian and Ukie showing? Are we looking at a blend? Seems like it's a wash for me and anyone to about Concord, NH, but I think there will be a steep gradient from there up to Dendrite and all snow to the north of there where the ski areas could measure 2'

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

The 06z southward drop was interesting....it wasn't limited to the NCEP models as the RGEM did it too (though not quite to the extent as GFS/NAM). Just caught up on the 00z Euro which is really ugly pretty far north...might even get sleet at one point to Sunday River/Bethel ME and up through Coos County NH.

 

 

The difference between a track through LI and SE MA and one over POU over to BOS is a big deal for sensible wx for a lot posters....SNE for sure, but even into most of CNE. Far NNE, it makes zero difference...they aren't missing the good snows regardless of the track within the realistic goal posts right now.

 

Certainly makes a difference here in ALB; the 06z NAM gives us 16" lol.

 

It looks like the 06z NAM/GFS were a little less amplified with the shortwave coming out of the anticyclonic wave break over the western US. That causes the phasing to be delayed and farther south than the 00z runs. We'll have to see how today's guidance handles that feature.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Certainly makes a difference here in ALB; the 06z NAM gives us 16" lol.

 

It looks like the 06z NAM/GFS were a little less amplified with the shortwave coming out of the anticyclonic wave break over the western US. That causes the phasing to be delayed and farther south than the 00z runs. We'll have to see how today's guidance handles that feature.

 

 

Yeah my first intuition is to just toss them, lol. But seeing some other guidance go south a bit makes me wonder if we'll see the Euro come back south....that was a pretty solid jump for Euro standards this close in, esp considering the ensemble spread yesterday was low.

 

 

I guess we'll just have to wait, since there is really no way to tell if the weaker/delayed phasing of the shortwave coming out of the rockies is real.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

1" of mashed potatoes this morning.

 

GYX has cut back the snow accumulation on the coastal plain, which I expected, due to sleet and freezing rain. But 4"-6" here will still be a net gain. This storm will be fun to watch. I will watch with interest for any trends today.

 

Looks quite euro esque

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

The 06z southward drop was interesting....it wasn't limited to the NCEP models as the RGEM did it too (though not quite to the extent as GFS/NAM). Just caught up on the 00z Euro which is really ugly pretty far north...might even get sleet at one point to Sunday River/Bethel ME and up through Coos County NH.

 

 

The difference between a track through LI and SE MA and one over POU over to BOS is a big deal for sensible wx for a lot posters....SNE for sure, but even into most of CNE. Far NNE, it makes zero difference...they aren't missing the good snows regardless of the track within the realistic goal posts right now.

 

As we have discussed, This is where these 20-75 mile shifts with the track of the surface low will have some bigger impacts for CNE over to here and the folks on the coast, That Euro run was not what i really expected, In fact, I expected it to either hold serve or a tic or 2 south, Seeing some of the others start going in the more southern camp is at least somewhat encouraging, But we will continue to need the pv to press south with some colder air less of a phase out west until it reaches the coast here would help as well as the s/w would take more of a southern track too, But will have to watch if that continues or it was just a blip in the models

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Very few posters in the Whites, or Maine away from the coast... too bad... they will get clocked

 

Totally agree about the lack of peeps (and hope the other part is right, too.)  Complete silence from the 75% of Maine north of my location.  We used to have posters from BGR and the County (and not just Vim Toot), but that part of the state seemed to disappear after Cool Spruce was no longer able to share his wisdom.  :(

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Not sure it means anything since the 6z models were cold (and they suck), but the 9z SREFs came in cooler.

 

Yeah just looked and the surface track may have been a hair SE of 03z but not much, I think we want to see trends colder for this today to help out the cause

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

As we have discussed, This is where these 20-75 mile shifts with the track of the surface low will have some bigger impacts for CNE over to here and the folks on the coast, That Euro run was not what i really expected, In fact, I expected it to either hold serve or a tic or 2 south, Seeing some of the others start going in the more southern camp is at least somewhat encouraging, But we will continue to need the pv to press south with some colder air less of a phase out west until it reaches the coast here would help as well as the s/w would take more of a southern track too, But will have to watch if that continues or it was just a blip in the models

 

I'd be wary of shifts more than 25 miles or so at this point unless there's a lot of agreement.  We're pretty close in for anything much more dramatic (I think).

 

41.1/33--torch.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Yeah just looked and the surface track may have been a hair SE of 03z but not much, I think we want to see trends colder for this today to help out the cause

You know, some mixing is good for the trails, if it is followed by 4-8 of powder.

 

I'm thinking a few inches of snow on Wednesday, a transition zone Wed eve (maybe even a dry slot?) and then 4-8 after midnight Wednesday into Thursday.  That would be a big win in mid March with the snow pack we have.  Although I leave Saturday for 3 weeks in Asia, so....

 

I am a fan of grand finales and a quick break to warmth so maybe when I get home April 4 spring will have sprung.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I'd be wary of shifts more than 25 miles or so at this point unless there's a lot of agreement.  We're pretty close in for anything much more dramatic (I think).

 

41.1/33--torch.

 

You would think but that 0z Euro was a solid shift NW last night of at least 50 miles, Not what i would have expected

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Yeah just looked and the surface track may have been a hair SE of 03z but not much, I think we want to see trends colder for this today to help out the cause

 

 

Understatement of the morning. lol   

 

You should do pretty well no matter what.  Perhaps 0z Euro was a little too ambitious with the push N?

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Understatement of the morning. lol   

 

You should do pretty well no matter what.  Perhaps 0z Euro was a little too ambitious with the push N?

 

I am thinking that but you can't just totally ignore it either, But seeing some of the other models start swinging the opposite way, And just took a closer look at the junk srefs, They did cool quite a bit, The 546 thickness was on my head at 03z and now its right along the immediate coast for the most part, We will see if guidance today follows, That pv may be starting to flex and the models are starting to pick up on it

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

You know, some mixing is good for the trails, if it is followed by 4-8 of powder.

 

I'm thinking a few inches of snow on Wednesday, a transition zone Wed eve (maybe even a dry slot?) and then 4-8 after midnight Wednesday into Thursday.  That would be a big win in mid March with the snow pack we have.  Although I leave Saturday for 3 weeks in Asia, so....

 

I am a fan of grand finales and a quick break to warmth so maybe when I get home April 4 spring will have sprung.

 

This time of year, Its good to have some paste for the trails so we don't sublimate away the powder in the exposed areas in the march sun

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

What a beast, definitely ticked colder on all morning runs. Brian basically tossing models other than the Euro like Lester tossing balls in long catch drills. We know what horse he is riding. Being on the fence for the biggies sucks emotionally, lol. We have a lot more spring training practice for that down here. JMHO Congrats Dendrite,the south tick is real and its spectacular. PS Will, a little sleet in that storm at SR is not a bad thing since we are not there for the bomb. Enjoy NNE, storm of the year in all of NE

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