Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[CoastalWx]

The guidance overall had this storm for a while and did a good job sniffing it out. What we can't decipher that far out in time, is the actual track.

[Ginx snewx]

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

EPO crash

[ORH_wxman]

The guidance overall had this storm for a while and did a good job sniffing it out. What we can't decipher that far out in time, is the actual track.

 

 

Yup, it was a "success" in that we have a major system moving through our region....there's no way to tell that you miss a snowstorm by 50 miles or if you get in the bullseye.

 

Teleconnectors are about storm systems and/or precipitation events...for those who are still learning. They don't tell you its going to be snowing in ORH or raining in BOS or snowing on the Cape. They tell us that there is an elevated chance of a large storm system.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks very much

Lots of reading to do

[dendrite]

SREFs suck, but it'd be nice if some guidance started trending cooler. 21z is a toaster here.

[Ginx snewx]

Usually totally refrain from predicting what models will do but real time look at current obs, going to say models go colder tonight. Hubb David and MPM will toss but JMHO

[dryslot]

Usually totally refrain from predicting what nodels will do but real time look at current obs, going to say models go colder tonight. Hubb David and MPM will toss but JMHO

 

seasonal trend

[dendrite]

seasonal trend

0 for 1 after one spring training model.

[dryslot]

0 for 1 after one spring training model.

 

Unfortunately, # 2 is still in Ft myers too

[ORH_wxman]

SREFs suck, but it'd be nice if some guidance started trending cooler. 21z is a toaster here.

 

 

If they had trended colder, it wouldn't make one ounce of difference. They are horrendous. I can already picture those ARW members tracking through ALB while at the same time it has NMM members going through CHH.

 

 

Maybe inside of 30 hours they'll start to become useful for trends. We'll really have to wait until the GFS...or maybe RGEM.

[dryslot]

And this is where DST blows

[HIPPYVALLEY]

SREFs suck, but it'd be nice if some guidance started trending cooler. 21z is a toaster here.

 

Yeah, it's hard to ignore when many models are trying to roast us even if they are not the heavyweight models.

[Ginx snewx]

I would think Dendrite gets iso then wind blown pow, wouldn't be surprised if we hear of power issues, tons of precip.Juicy Lucy

[codfishsnowman]

the navgm has a snowstorm area wide

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, it's hard to ignore when many models are trying to roast us even if they are not the heavyweight models.

not sure I would consider Brian on the roast list http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX

[dryslot]

the navgm has a snowstorm area wide

 

lol, I am going to go pull the JMA and KMA out along with the ETA and NGM out of moth balls

[HoarfrostHubb]

DGEX DGEX DGEX

[CoastalWx]

SREFs suck, but it'd be nice if some guidance started trending cooler. 21z is a toaster here.

 

I think the 48hr SREFs have 120" for me so far this season.

[CoastalWx]

IOW, they are usually too amped.

[CoastalWx]

the navgm has a snowstorm area wide

 

We toss.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think the 48hr SREFs have 120" for me so far this season.

To be fair, so does the Euro

[CoastalWx]

To be fair, so does the Euro

 

48 hrs out? The globals haven't been that bad. The SREFs can be nuts.

 

Hey maybe they are right...but my gut says probably not. Although, I wouldn't exactly be speechless if the euro tickled north.

[JC-CT]

To be fair, so does the Euro

To be fair, how many hours of nonsnow has it shown as well?

[HoarfrostHubb]

48 hrs out? The globals haven't been that bad. The SREFs can be nuts.

Hey maybe they are right...but my gut says probably not. Although, I wouldn't exactly be speechless if the euro tickled north.

Oh, I am not defending the SREFs. They have been a riot

But the major league models have been troublesome this winter more than I recall. Pattern and all

[HoarfrostHubb]

To be fair, how many hours of nonsnow has it shown as well?

My blisters have yet to heal from shoveling Euro nonsnow

[dryslot]

I think the 48hr SREFs have 120" for me so far this season.

 

I would still be shoveling from my totals for a month

[weathafella]

Lol, I pick and choose the posters with the most credibility when i rip and read back, And your on that list.......

Thank you Jeff! Likewise.

I also like to see what kind of drama is unfolding in the psychological world and I am pleased to say I got a good dose.....lol.

[ORH_wxman]

My guess on the very early NAM returns through 24h is that it will be less amped...PV is a bit further SE and the plains stuff is a little more detached form the N stream.

 

 

Not that this matters a ton considering the model. We'll see if that turns out to be right though.

[N. OF PIKE]

Powderfreak is the spot to be for this one, that and the trails in NNH, upslope on backside will crank.

MAN if ONLY i could get the day off WEDNESDAY! I would LOVE to ski up in N VT on thursday. Bolton valley is gonna go over 2 Feet easy. Thursday is gonna be dumping sick upslope at BV , i gotta find a way

[dryslot]

Thank you Jeff! Likewise.

I also like to see what kind of drama is unfolding in the psychological world and I am pleased to say I got a good dose.....lol.

 

Oh there was some good ones today no doubt.......