IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 4k NAM continues to paint an ever so slightly brighter picture. Think 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mount holly kept the warning for monmouth, dropped amounts to the least possible, 4"-8".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 4k NAM continues to paint an ever so slightly brighter picture. Think 1-3". Ya, new 12k is .08 for NYC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ya, new 12k is .08 for NYC though I would not be shocked if nyc sees an inch or less. Media should be ashamed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NYC and Philly are screwed. DC might only get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't know what to think at this point. I dont think they can just drop all snowfall totals completely, we also still have a few models with .25" south of 78 which could support the 2 to 4" (forgetting the look of radar) i dont envy the pros leading up to events like this. their forecasts have to stay somewhat cohesive while the modeling produces an ever moving target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 willy has spoken for my NYC friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 i dont envy the pros leading up to events like this. their forecasts have to stay somewhat cohesive while the modeling produces an ever moving target. Yeah they have me still in the 2-4 in. zone while Mt. Holly has an even higher 4-6 just across the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With a coating to maybe and inch or two, NYC will probably have to wait to convert their 57.3" into 60". 75.6 1995-96 63.2 1947-48 61.9 2010-11 60.4 1922-23 60.3 1872-73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest RAP gives us .15..take the 1-2 inches and run!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is 4-6 for middlesex and Monmouth county. 2 for NYC 6-8 for Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well.....it's not even close. Sharp cutoff? Not even really.....hi res NAM gives us about 1 to 1.5", Trenton 2-3" and PHL 3-4". We don't miss out on much Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest GFS has the .25 line just south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like 2-4 up to Brooklyn on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lol dont use the gfs to try and save this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lol dont use the gfs to try and save this storm We all know your excited this storm is gonna be a miss. Congrats ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bust of the century? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think we had more snow from the squalls this past week than we will get from this. Upton now at 1-2" across LI...point and click has less than one inch tonight and tomorrow. A 99% reduction in totals from 48 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bust of the century?Not even close to being close. (Ahem... 2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like 2-4 up to Brooklyn on the gfs good luck with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the 12-16 a couple of the Models showed 72 hrs ago seems like an eternity already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Poof. These things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bust of the century?it's not a bust if your snow disappears on the models before day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 it's not a bust if your snow disappears on the models before day 4 What model took snow out of the forecast Thrs ? Humor me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 willy has spoken for my NYC friends Ha lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 What model took snow out of the forecast Thrs ? Humor me. The GGEM actually did well with this with the two part system, the first part pushing the second part south. I thought a lot could go wrong but I hedged toward the storm being more north and mixing cutting things back. I didn't think the PV would grow so strong that it would squash a storm south in early March of all times. Judging by the models continuing to cut back up here, I think this is a 1-2" deal for most, maybe 3 or 4 inches over Monmouth. North of White Plains might just have scattered flurries. I was hoping this could get Central Park up to 60" but they'll very likely have to wait. Hopefully I can get past 55" (currently at 53.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The GGEM actually did well with this with the two part system, the first part pushing the second part south. I thought a lot could go wrong but I hedged toward the storm being more north and mixing cutting things back. I didn't think the PV would grow so strong that it would squash a storm south in early March of all times. Judging by the models continuing to cut back up here, I think this is a 1-2" deal for most, maybe 3 or 4 inches over Monmouth. North of White Plains might just have scattered flurries. I was hoping this could get Central Park up to 60" but they'll very likely have to wait. Hopefully I can get past 55" (currently at 53.5"). This stuff happens w numerical modeling nothing is set in stone. Regardless of the models physics or resolution. At 1 am sat the 0z run of the euro had .5 in nyc and .7 in Monmouth. My point was the better models started to compress this 36 to 48 hours out. Not 96. ^/$@ happens. And anyone n of 195 gets 3 I will b shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 What model took snow out of the forecast Thrs ? Humor me. Friday 12z and heavy snow was forecast Monday so technically it's 72+hrs 3-4days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Friday 12z and heavy snow was forecast Monday so technically it's 72+hrs 3-4daysWell you were Def right on about not adding all the .1 crud to snow totals etc. Was never Gona add up. But Friday nite the dry Ukie was .65 nyc .85 Monmouth. 0z gfs was .5 nyc. .8 Monmouth. Sat 12z. Srefs were .5 to .75. And the euro. The nam at 12 sat was the first real .25 in nyc. Then it blew up from there. So I stand by 48 hours. But we are arguing over nada Hang around modeling long enough and if one data point changes the entire solution changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sorry for the edits. On phone. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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