Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The pv assets itself at the perfect time. Nice spoke of vorticity comes down through 72 that keeps confluence strong and pushes the entire complex south just enough. It's a brilliant run of course. The biggest takeaway are the notable favorable changes through 48. It began early. Usually the gfs doesn't back up at short leads. This could be a harbinger but plenty of risk on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Column is plenty cold after 69hrs for everyone north of DC and after 72 hrs for most everyone north of EZF. Ratios would be pretty high (15:1?) during the day on Monday verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 damn ncep maps are so slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The blocking and polar vortex in eastern Canada should always be in the back of your head before interpreting a model run. Great run for the Mid Atlantic. Let's hope this holds on the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's great but all I care about is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 i hate extrapolating from early on - but i can't help myself and its great when you're right In this case it was kinda easy to see though. I love the gfs @ h5 through 48. It's really good. If this subtle but important shift holds then all bets are off on a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 instant weather weenie snow map showing 8-12" for me, sleet first. at least there is no freezing rain this time. You'd get more than that I suspect because I think ratios would be pretty high during the day Monday if this run were to verify. Either way, pretty epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 - DC flips to snow at around 5am, after about 0.20" sleet/ZR (we flip to frozen around 9pm Sunday) - ~0.65" as all snow - ends around 5pm... - Total QPF just over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol I go afk to do some work and come back and see we are back in the manic phase. All is well for at least 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS is waaay colder than NAM Sunday at 7pm Wifes cough coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here is a 12-hr 500mb GH change map at 12z Monday. That dark blue area is -12m shift. This is why this run is colder (duh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With a fresh snow pack I wonder if we could break some record lows Monday night (if the GFS is correct). That's some super chilly air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hopefully this animated gif works on phones for you guys. This is 12z hr48 and 6z hr 54. Look at the backside of the pv in canada. That small press and additional confluence sets us up. This is really early in the run. If this holds then we are moving towards a high 5 and whisky party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Incredible, and so many subtle things to watch out for. I guess the best thing is to look at the possible worst and best case scenarios at this point, and use that range right now. Sort of a a spread. So, taking the relatively crappy 12Z NAM (and 06Z GFS), we'd be looking at rain to ice/sleet (and possibly a fair amount of that) with maybe light accumulation of snow on top. The best case...12Z GFS and I guess last night's Canadian (and others from yesterday)...something like ice/sleet (with perhaps some rain at the very start) to a significant snow event. Both of those "extremes" have some very cold air getting in here through late Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You'd get more than that I suspect because I think ratios would be pretty high during the day Monday if this run were to verify. Either way, pretty epic run. at this point i am just hoping it is sleeting or snowing far enough south in AA county that my boss wakes up Monday morning, looks outside and closes the office. Otherwise, its a working from home day for me instead of a true snow day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Page 23 might just have some really quotable posts in about 2 hours (if they don't get deleted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep, PV really flexed its muscle this run. HM said yesterday that models might start to realize the the influence of this Artic air. Also the high is 1040 this run. Cold will not b denied this year. Now we wait the Euro. Big mood swings in here. Relax. Nothing you can do about the weather. I think we will b fine for mostly frozen. Just don't want fz. Snow/ sleet combo is fine. All snow is tough call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not trying to create a strawman here, but for anyone concerned about daytime snow in March, here are the obs for DCA for March 9th, 1999. I got 9.5" near Dupont Circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Our storm is the one off the CA coast, right? This run was nice, but we still have a bit of time before some even better data comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the Arctic front has more bite maybe than depicted by models. I can easily visualize the front sinking south on Sunday from S PA into C MD ... working it's way thru DC late. Especially with LP tracking along the front and it looks like it may track just barely to our (Central MD's) south. At some point Sunday, folks in N&C MD will be cheering on the cold frontal passage while DC folks are waiting. If any type of frozen precip falling is considered a victory, I believe DC will be happy in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man, not only is the PV more assertive this run, shunting all mid-level features south; but, it also strengthens the upper-level jet at 200mb to almost 200kt max over northern New England! That will cause some serious uplift over the Mid Atlantic. Suddenly, this is becoming a more consolidated / shorter-duration heavier system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man, not only is the PV more assertive this run, shunting all mid-level features south; but, it also strengthens the upper-level jet at 200mb to almost 200kt max over northern New England! That will cause some serious uplift over the Mid Atlantic. Suddenly, this is becoming a more consolidated / shorter-duration heavier system. I have not looked as much at this in previous GFS cycles (other than the PV)...at least not the jet features you're talking about...but is this a significant change in the GFS's "look", or has it been wavering back and forth on that? I do recall the other day the GFS had a cycle that gave us a similar scenario, ice/sleet to a snowstorm, but that was in two waves. Those plots would be gone by now (at least on NCEP's site), so don't recall exactly what the PV or jet structure was doing in that case. I'd suspect kind of similar, except instead of two waves it's now more consolidated as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Look at that Beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With a fresh snow pack I wonder if we could break some record lows Monday night (if the GFS is correct). That's some super chilly air. It looks like record lows for the month of March are in jeopardy. The records to beat are 5 at BWI (3/4/1873), 4 at DCA (3/4/1873), and -1 at IAD (3/15/1993). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With a fresh snow pack I wonder if we could break some record lows Monday night (if the GFS is correct). That's some super chilly air. The GFS deterministic run has been terrible at lows this winter. Go with MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS deterministic run has been terrible at lows this winter. Go with MOS. I agree that the deterministic is going to be too cold, but MOS is usually too warm with arctic air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I have notice that no one has posted the UKMET on this storm... is there a reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I agree that the deterministic is going to be too cold, but MOS is usually too warm with arctic air masses. I'd still shade MOS 75/25 at least. The op run is flopping around like crazy. -6 for the coldest low at DCA next week on the 00z run (which is absurd) to +8 on the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 According to these we flip to snow 73-74 hr on the CMC...Seems kinda light on QPF according to these though, IDk just looking at it for flip time though and type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I have notice that no one has posted the UKMET on this storm... is there a reason why? Because the UKMET is a piece of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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