Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The beauty of this run is that we don't even flirt with a mix. The worst temp news is that the surface goes to 34 Thurs afternoon so we get some dripping. Best storm ever if we get dumped on and it all melts right away after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Shift this 50 miles NW, thats where the NAM will be come 12z tomorrow IMO. Amazing run though. However, the way it actually depicts the storm makes a lot more sense to me compared to the GGEM/GFS with their weird light CCB snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yeah yeah snowmap. i'm going to post them all if they have blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3 things to be cautious about...It's the Nam....the Nam runs cold....Its the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still could trend more WEST with track...NAM is too far EAST with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still could trend more WEST with track...NAM is too far EAST with QPF. Let me guess, you live in Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3 things to be cautious about...It's the Nam....the Nam runs cold....Its the nam all that matters for now is it's got the east track which could very well be wrong but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RIC gets NAM'd again, as does everyone else up 95 with no p-type issues. Ideal solution for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z nam cobb output should be hilarious, a al pre 12/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Shift this 50 miles NW, thats where the NAM will be come 12z tomorrow IMO. Amazing run though. However, the way it actually depicts the storm makes a lot more sense to me compared to the GGEM/GFS with their weird light CCB snows.. That would basically put it in line with the Euro. No one can complain about this run though. With the bands that will be moving through everyone will get their share. It is really just a perfect run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iambinarymind Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Blend of the Euro/Nam please. Pretty please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3 things to be cautious about...It's the Nam....the Nam runs cold....Its the nam I still think the euro is more right and agree, it's the nam, the nam runs cold and it's the nam at longer time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even with a 25-50 mile westward shift, the NAM is still a good hit for many west of the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I cannot believe people are still wishing for more. This is just about the best case scenario... and everyone should be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM gives me less than an inch and Euro gives over a foot. Huge difference out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still not running to the Euro at least... which keeps it sort of lonely on the western edge. It's really cool looking at the different solutions and the comma head of destruction and then comparing it the when/where H5 closes off. 12z gfs is definitely changing @ 18z imo. Here's the only closed panel and it came latest @ 7pm Thurdsay Euro is by far the earliest and furthest west (1am thurs) GGEM is a great solution. Thurs @ 1pm And then the 18z nam. Closes off @ 1pm Thurs (pic is mislabeled) We won't know who gets destroyed and when until h5 is nailed down. It may not happen until nowcast time too. Way cool. This is like Vort301 and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z nam cobb output should be hilarious, a al pre 12/09. I don't remember if it was Ender or MN who had the 72" Cobb output in their sig for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's really cool looking at the different solutions and the comma head of destruction and then comparing it the when/where H5 closes off. 12z gfs is definitely changing @ 18z imo. Here's the only closed panel and it came latest @ 7pm Thurdsay 12zgfs7pmthurs.JPG Euro is by far the earliest and furthest west (1am thurs) Euro1amThurs.JPG GGEM is a great solution. Thurs @ 1pm GGEM1pmThurs.JPG And then the 18z nam. Closes off @ 1pm Thurs (pic is mislabeled) 18zNam1pmWed.JPG We won't know who gets destroyed and when until h5 is nailed down. It may not happen until nowcast time too. Way cool. This is like Vort301 and stuff. Exactly. How quickly the 500 closes off is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yeah yeah snowmap. i'm going to post them all if they have blues. BgJAPRTCQAAl8Ef.png Believe me, I would love for you guys to get plastered with these totals (max 31.2" NE of ric, VA!!!!!!)... but those 15" totals in SC and GA stand out to me as un-believable... their WSW are calling for 2-4-6" with some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good comparo Bob. I agree the NAM is unlikely to win the battle at this range verbatim. I guess I just don't see the pt in getting into the weeds on mix etc given that we're still seeing every possible solution there from no mix to lots of mix. I expect to mix for a time I suppose but other than that I wouldn't go far either way there. Someday soon mets won't be needed if we just rip the Euro verbatim and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 we should have the winter olympics here. Funny how the NAM never sucks at 60 when it shows 2 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I still think the euro is more right and agree, it's the nam, the nam runs cold and it's the nam at longer time ranges. looking at sounding for DCA, it is all snow, but very very close to a warm layer at 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Updated snow progs from WPC on Day 3 40/10/10 (% chances of 4/8/12 inches of snow at DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 where is that quote from zwyts who said 0% chance he says any accumulating snow in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 where is that quote from zwyts who said 0% chance he says any accumulating snow in February? if I said that I already busted...I got 0.3" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4km NAM, 1am Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still could trend more WEST with track...NAM is too far EAST with QPF. LTFOL. Just because you want it that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interesting that the HPC prefers a blend NAM/GFS/UKMET over the Euro right now. .EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS INALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLYALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURETHEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKSTO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AREPLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACKDIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THETIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVEBEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERYSTRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELCONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THESOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THENFARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENTUPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FASTZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THECANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST.THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTHNOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ANDTHE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THELOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY14/00Z.AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BEYET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 FWIW the WPC has a 33% chance of 0"-1", and a 33% for 4"-8" for Dundalk. Hell of a make/miss there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z NAM aside (I just look at anything beyond 48 hrs on the 18z NAM as comic relief), this looks like it is going to be a great storm for your region and all the way up into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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