BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 2m above ground on weather underground and 850s look good for DC at 72 and 81 on wunderground. Is that correct? 2m 0C is just south of dca at 72 and then drops further at 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 an increasingly strong signal -- it's interesting when analogs based on a forecast deviates a bit from the model evolution -- CIPS are a neat tool It has mixed utility IMO but it has been neat to see how it's consistently west of the op it runs off of.. probably because the mid levels looked better than the sfc for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DCA1.75 QPF total? Even with 10:1 ratios that's a huge hit.Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Based on the guidance yesterday/today, it seems like we're getting closer to a solid 6-10 event for 95 with mixing in the middle. As usual, more N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2m 0C is just south of dca at 72 and then drops further at 81. Just look at the Raw output that Ji posted... that tells the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just some thoughts, RE: the ECMWF... It hasn't been the greatest performer this cool season 60-144 hours out, at least in terms of verification comapred to it's ensemble mean or even the GFS and GEFS mean. I understand some "tinkering" was done recently to the model; I'm wondering if we're seeing some grid scale feedback issues because of that (?) it's foolish to label any model changes as "tinkering" -- they are exhaustively tested, especially in the case of the ECMWF -- and are never implemented if they don't show "positive" impact -- that doesn't preclude issues on a case-by-case basis. Not every deviation between models can be traced back to some "bias". Regarding performance -- it's still the best performing model by just about every verification metric -- doesn't make it right here, as the case with any model, it's just guidance. When you say it hasn't been the greatest performer -- is that just a qualitative inference or something that's got some meat behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DCA I love how it crashes from -.06 to -3.8 like right at the height of the storm.. OMFG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It has mixed utility IMO but it has been neat to see how it's consistently west of the op it runs off of.. probably because the mid levels looked better than the sfc for a while. yeah i haven't followed it enough to really have an opinion from an operational tool -- do they show the spread of the analog mean anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1.75 QPF total? Even with 10:1 ratios that's a huge hit. Sent from my XT907 typically sleet is 3:1..and we will get plenty of that and it might be more like 2:1 with a 32-34 degree surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is what I wrote on Facebook for the general public: Time to comment on this storm - Just thoughts - not committed to anything - all subject to change- Start time would likely be Wednesday mid to late evening- It will probably be a long duration event - 18hrs+- We will start as snow but will likely mix and change to sleet in DC for a period and then perhaps back to snow- Surface will be fine for 1st 6-8 hours of storm and we will accumulate easily- Thursday could be 33-34 at surface so may cut down on accumulations a bit at the end- The American models have a more easterly track with less precipitation but higher percentage snow- The European model, which is the best model, is the furthest west, the wettest, and I would lean slightly toward that solution, though it could shift east a bitVery low confidence loose guess for DC proper - Feels like a 6-10" event with most of that coming in the first 8 hours, then accumulating sleet, then back to snow with perhaps 1-3" during the day on Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Once this gets going the surface will not be a problem. I found the DCA commenter to be smuga nd that is part of the problem down there. You will never, ever, never be able to convice me that in Feb 2010 with area wide heavy snow and temps in the mid 20's that DCA recorded 16" and everthing else around it was 24"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am basing it on the monthly verification scores that our Development and Training Branch provides us within WPC each month. I'm admittingly making a broad assumption here from viewing just a handful of ppt slides the last few month (500 and sfc) it's foolish to label any model changes as "tinkering" -- they are exhaustively tested, especially in the case of the ECMWF -- and are never implemented if they don't show "positive" impact -- that doesn't preclude issues on a case-by-case basis. Not every deviation between models can be traced back to some "bias". Regarding performance -- it's still the best performing model by just about every verification metric -- doesn't make it right here, as the case with any model, it's just guidance. When you say it hasn't been the greatest performer -- is that just a qualitative inference or something that's got some meat behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 typically sleet is 3:1..and we will get plenty of that and it might be more like 2:1 with a 32-34 degree surface You have no idea how much sleet were going to get. Track is still undecided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ensembles?maybe theyare. Slighlty eastof the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You have no idea how much sleet were going to get. Track is still undecided. That goes to the ratio of the overall event, not the ratio for the sleet itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ensembles?maybe theyare. Slighlty eastof the op? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 First watches up to the SW. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA200 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY....A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILLFORCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTICSEABOARD AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COLD AIR ALREADY INPLACE DURING THAT TIME WILL CAUSE THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL ASSNOW. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...IN ADDITION TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WILLLEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 8 INCHES SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND 6 TO LOCALLY 10INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE VALUES MAY BE ADJUSTED LATERBASED ON UPDATED FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.VAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-110300-/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0002.140212T1100Z-140214T0300Z/GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE200 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA NORTHOF HIGHWAY 460.* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLEWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FURTHEREAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.* MAIN IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOWIS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREELIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Been looking at GFS and NAM forecast soundings, IAD seems to stay all snow throughout the entire event. DCA appears to have an isothermal layer at 0 C between 850-950mb. So DCA *might* stay all snow (verbatim) but could be low-ratio wet snow instead of changing outright over to IP or RA. Could be a problem for power lines. Don't have access to euro or its soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Once this gets going the surface will not be a problem. I found the DCA commenter to be smuga nd that is part of the problem down there. You will never, ever, never be able to convice me that in Feb 2010 with area wide heavy snow and temps in the mid 20's that DCA recorded 16" and everthing else around it was 24"+. DCA recorded 18" and area around it was generally 19-23"....so a little low comparatively, but not at all what you are suggesting....I got 22" well into NW DC at 210'...I think you can definitely make an argument, but when you skew the facts it makes your argument much less compelling and you have a tendency to do just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is what I wrote on Facebook for the general public: Time to comment on this storm - Just thoughts - not committed to anything - all subject to change[/size]- Start time would likely be Wednesday mid to late evening[/size]- It will probably be a long duration event - 18hrs+[/size]- We will start as snow but will likely mix and change to sleet in DC for a period and then perhaps back to snow[/size]- Surface will be fine for 1st 6-8 hours of storm and we will accumulate eas[/size]ily - Thursday could be 33-34 at surface so may cut down on accumulations a bit at the end - The American models have a more easterly track with less precipitation but higher percentage snow - The European model, which is the best model, is the furthest west, the wettest, and I would lean slightly toward that solution, though it could shift east a bit Very low confidence loose guess for DC proper - Feels like a 6-10" event with most of that coming in the first 8 hours, then accumulating sleet, then back to snow with perhaps 1-3" during the day on Thursday....[/size] I think its extremely unlikely qpf being advertised yields anything less than 8 inches, except at the runway at the airport. 8-14 seems fairer and less cynical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am basing it on the monthly verification scores that our Development and Training Branch provides us within WPC each month. I'm admittingly making a broad assumption here from viewing just a handful of ppt slides the last few month (500 and sfc) that's cool -- no worries -- would have liked to hear about those -- just the first i had heard about feedback issues with the newest version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 does anyone have an euro sounding for westminster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 well, Euro is again colder than the last run, albeit by not much, but I'll take it this is the 4th run in the row it's gotten colder for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think its extremely unlikely qpf being advertised yields anything less than 8 inches, except at the runway at the airport. 8-14 seems fairer and less cynical I actually agree. I think it's a little bearish, but safe. If it were a perfect scenario, we'd be looking at almost 2 feet. Even with a prolonged period of sleet and low ratios, 8 to 12 seems like a good call...and that's with the Euro's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think its extremely unlikely qpf being advertised yields anything less than 8 inches, except at the runway at the airport. 8-14 seems fairer and less cynical If you throw out the american guidance and hug the euro verbatim, then I agree...but who would do that 54 hours out?....Not the I am accountable to the public, but I have been forecasting a long time, and 8-14" is way too bullish at this range when you have a major model giving us 0.75" with mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I actually agree. I think it's a little bearish, but safe. If it were a perfect scenario, we'd be looking at almost 2 feet. Even with a prolonged period of sleet and low ratios, 8 to 12 seems like a good call...and that's with the Euro's track. Its what I sent out to our staff here... my email basically mirrored what Zwyts said... I stated 4-8 very early guess of snow... but potential for much more 15z SREFs should be out any minute now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Once this gets going the surface will not be a problem. I found the DCA commenter to be smuga nd that is part of the problem down there. You will never, ever, never be able to convice me that in Feb 2010 with area wide heavy snow and temps in the mid 20's that DCA recorded 16" and everthing else around it was 24"+. The problem is people like yourself who dont have a clue and make foolish comments. Do you even know where they measure snow at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CWG staying cautious, probably a good idea, but a bit surprised by how cautious, Wes/Ian http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/heavy-snow-threat-for-d-c-area-wednesday-night-and-thursday-but-mix-rain-also-possible/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How consistent are the models in terms of the start time for an event around the DC area? Are they are looking at arrival Wednesday overnight, or are some starting Wednesday midday and some Thursday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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