RickinBaltimore Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interesting that the HPC prefers a blend NAM/GFS/UKMET over the Euro right now. .EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THEN FARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST. THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Understatement of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's really cool looking at the different solutions and the comma head of destruction and then comparing it the when/where H5 closes off. 12z gfs is definitely changing @ 18z imo. Here's the only closed panel and it came latest @ 7pm Thurdsay 12zgfs7pmthurs.JPG Euro is by far the earliest and furthest west (1am thurs) Euro1amThurs.JPG GGEM is a great solution. Thurs @ 1pm GGEM1pmThurs.JPG And then the 18z nam. Closes off @ 1pm Thurs (pic is mislabeled) 18zNam1pmWed.JPG We won't know who gets destroyed and when until h5 is nailed down. It may not happen until nowcast time too. Way cool. This is like Vort301 and stuff. Is the indentation at the top of the vort significant in any way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if I said that I already busted...I got 0.3" yesterday we all said alot of things in our meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the nam wins I will be so upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 damn, watch already?? Baffled my mind as well...seems odd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good comparo Bob. I agree the NAM is unlikely to win the battle at this range verbatim. I guess I just don't see the pt in getting into the weeds on mix etc given that we're still seeing every possible solution there from no mix to lots of mix. I expect to mix for a time I suppose but other than that I wouldn't go far either way there. Someday soon mets won't be needed if we just rip the Euro verbatim and run. I'm thinking the euro comes east "some". Just keeping the vort open and progressive a smidge longer would bump the track a touch. Until other models start latching on to the amped, quick to closer and western side of guidance I think it reasonable to hedge against the furthest w of the envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DTs already got the NAM snow map up on Facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Baffled my mind as well...seems odd? Yes. 4th/5th period watches are unusual, but when confidence is high, they do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z RGEM 54 hr SLP and QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not surprising on WPC IMO. The Euro is lonely on the western edge as I've posted 400 times in the last 3 hours. It might be right and it makes sense and all.. but no reason to buy it 100% as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DTs already got the NAM snow map up on Facebook... All the attacks against FB kids and he's been super bad on this storm sharing every big snowmap he can find. Kinda irresponsible as a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z RGEM 54 hr SLP and QPF map that looks way east of the GGEM at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DTs already got the NAM snow map up on Facebook... And in about an hour he'll be SCREAMING at people who think RIC is getting 20" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 that looks way east of the GGEM at the same time You're concerned right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 this looks like a NESIS 5 storm for impact on so many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes. 4th/5th period watches are unusual, but when confidence is high, they do it. God bless! Hope you guys get slammed down there....you deserve it. Philly (Burbs) have been drilled all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 All the attacks against FB kids and he's been super bad on this storm sharing every big snowmap he can find. Kinda irresponsible as a met. yea but the kids posted the maps 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yea but the kids posted the maps 10 days out and end of run NAM snowmap is about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 God bless! Hope you guys get slammed down there....you deserve it. Philly (Burbs) have been drilled all year. still looking like you might get drilled, look at the nam =) happy to share the wealth when we have it for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 that looks way east of the GGEM at the same time not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You're concerned right? for your area, not at all...bigger concern for DC is mixing for sure...for way up here yes and I have good reason to be. Some of the analogs to this were good hits up here, and others were excruciatingly close misses for where I am now. Add to that the fact that most of the big events have set up just barely to my southeast this winter and of course I am. I do think the the american guidance will trend NW as it almost always does the last 48 hours, and I love being just northwest of the max precip on the models other then the euro at 60 hours out...but of course I am still nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z RGEM 54 hr SLP and QPF map 18zRGEM54hrQPF2-10-14.gif Thats east. Looks like it missed the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thats east. Looks like it missed the phase? it's almost identical -- pretend there aren't any "H"s or "L"s on that map and look at the pressure contours, height/thickness lines and qpf fields -- the "L"s on that map are generated by a piece of software but can be misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT posted just last night about how some "idiot rumors" were flying around that this was going to rival the '93 storm. He said "100% not true/BS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thats east. Looks like it missed the phase? 18z RGEM h5 map at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's almost identical -- pretend there aren't any "H"s or "L"s on that map and look at the pressure contours, height/thickness lines and qpf fields -- the "L"s on that map are generated by a piece of software but can be misleading. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT posted just last night about how some "idiot rumors" were flying around that this was going to rival the '93 storm. He said "100% not true/BS." He's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thats east. Looks like it missed the phase? What are yall looking at? It's not east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cobb only has 41 inches for dca Bwi at 42 and iad at 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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