ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just realized that. Somebody move it. I'm at the gym supposed to be working out. Is it showing 12" in the gym?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Absent the low cutting to our west we have not been too warm this winter and absent the low cutting to our west and up into the lakes we will not be too warm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Took a glance at the 18z. Disaster. I am moving on to 0z. Handing in my 18z membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Very little ensemble support for Mon on 18z gefs. Euro is on its own for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Very little ensemble support for Mon on 18z gefs. Euro is on its own for now Wednesday looks horrific on ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Very little ensemble support for Mon on 18z gefs. Euro is on its own for now It will cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Very little ensemble support for Mon on 18z gefs. Euro is on its own for now Wednesday looks horrific on ensemble mean Doesn't the ggem have the storm also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wednesday looks horrific on ensemble mean Wed is fast becoming a writeoff unless hp starts showing up in a good position and not running away like a scared kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It will cave. All models have the vort in some form or another. Euro has been the most steadfast so I agree to some extent. Sneaky little waves are tough to resolve. EPS had a pretty strong signal even if the jackpot was south in central pa. Op run today was almost too good to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Both January events had a shorter steady-on-the-models lead-time than where we are now so far. If you remember, the first January one had that one juicy Euro run, where it then fell off all the models and came back on the GFS before the Euro came back with it in the real short-range. The Monday threat is kind of 'pulsing' right now on the models, so I think we won't get a consistent look on the models until sometime Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All models have the vort in some form or another. Euro has been the most steadfast so I agree to some extent. Sneaky little waves are tough to resolve. EPS had a pretty strong signal even if the jackpot was south in central pa. Op run today was almost too good to believe Never trust anything that is too good. MA motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even though it probably looks better because it is a smoothed mean, the 21z SREF would be a hit for us. (DC & Philly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Remember when the Euro would show something and you'd lock that **** up and sleep well? Remember when you'd see it and had full confidence that what it showed or close to it was pretty much going to happen, regardless of what the GFS/MRF showed? Those were the days. This next system (Monday), I have a healthy dose of skepticism. Dare I say it...until the GFS is on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Remember when the Euro would show something and you'd lock that **** up and sleep well? Remember when you'd see it and had full confidence that what it showed or close to it was pretty much going to happen, regardless of what the GFS/MRF showed? Those were the days. This next system (Monday), I have a healthy dose of skepticism. Dare I say it...until the GFS is on board.... America is the ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Remember when the Euro would show something and you'd lock that **** up and sleep well? Remember when you'd see it and had full confidence that what it showed or close to it was pretty much going to happen, regardless of what the GFS/MRF showed? Those were the days. This next system (Monday), I have a healthy dose of skepticism. Dare I say it...until the GFS is on board.... 00z GFS will have it... you can bet on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS will have it... you can bet on it And the euro will lose it, and then the GFS will eventually lose it too and we will all wish for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 America is the ****. Coming again to save the motherf-kin' day, yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even though it probably looks better because it is a smoothed mean, the 21z SREF would be a hit for us. (DC & Philly) wave.gif 2m.gif 24pre.gif you beat me to it SREFs look great (he says with much trepidation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro does better with waves running up from the south. Gfs is good with ns vorts diving down. When there is a big discrepancy it's best to hedge. Euro has had this off and on and ensembles agree. I wouldn't bet against it. But I also wouldn't bet that the euro will get any better than 12z. There's only one way to trend there imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you beat me to it SREFs look great (he says with much trepidation) I'll add that the 850 line is just south of EZF. Though as we know it's the SREFs....at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll bet we get one of the two. Either Mon or Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll bet we get one of the two. Either Mon or Wed I have high confidence in precipitation over the next week to 10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have high confidence in precipitation over the next week to 10 or so. We will get some winter precip then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We will get some winter precip then. Agreed.. probably a good bit. Especially you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is the NAM scenario possible? Seems awfully fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is the NAM scenario possible? Seems awfully fast. Its only out to 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have high confidence in precipitation over the next week to 10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have high confidence in precipitation over the next week to 10 or so. I am glad to hear that wet stuff will fall out of the sky some time in the next 10 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think we're about to get NAMd. Hour 81 has 850s near -3 and a slug of precip SW of us moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM makes it an interesting rush hour Mon morning... but ofc its NAM a 84... but a better 84 at 00z than at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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