BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Skip, looks like rain to maybe snow at DTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The gradient across Wake County is pretty massive. I moved to Youngsville to get more snow! Maybe me being in the SE part is a good thing this time. I think we will do fine. For some reason the Wake Forest/Youngsville area is usually the sweet spot in Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 nws here in chs said "IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST/SE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY" i think the heavy precip rates as depicted by the nam/gfs will help our temp issue here. any slight changes in the timing of the changeover will have huge implications in regards to ice or snow accums. will be fun to watch. Thanks a bunch for that "up-date" Southern Snow.... I was getting frustrated, worried that we would instead have a Major Icing event, with possible 1" +/- accumulations before change-over to all snow, THAT would of been UUUUGGGLLLYY for all us here on the coast. I just got in, trying to catch up here, (sry ot).. Looks also the precipitation is starting Earlier than expected,,, Late tonight/light precipitation may start before daybreak Tuesday...especially near the coast. Cooling off the column/atmosphere as the Artic front approaches, following post-frontal passage; a'lil moist northeasterly flow sets up & will saturate the column up to around 650 mb around, Late this evening, giving US, (here along the Coast mostly),starting with rain, quickly changing over to a ...snow and sleet mix by daybreak on Tuesday, following the Main Event starting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think we will do fine. For some reason the Wake Forest/Youngsville area is usually the sweet spot in Wake. Per Euro Chapel Hill get 2.8" and Clayton get's almost 8". Thats only 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 wow -- interesting. The GFS and NAM soundings are all rain quickly to IP/ZR -- not much snow. How about VPS? Skip, looks like rain to maybe snow at DTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The question is why the shift west? For the mountain areas, I don't think the shift west has anything to do with the QPF projection. Rather, as Robert pointed out, it looks like overrunning precipitation that breaks out far earlier than the NAM and GFS indicate. In fact, if taken at face-value, it would snow lightly all day in the mountains, to the tune of 1-2" as others have pointed out. My concern is the location of the arctic boundary at 1pm EST versus where it was modeled to be. It is running slower, as KAVL still sits in the upper 40s, and even Knoxville is still in the 40s. If the front hangs up a bit longer, it may be a good focus for the better overrunning precipitation. I think the Euro is hinting at this. Stay tuned mountain folks. This could be interesting - and we may not need any NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pretty decent amount of warm air being drawn up ahead of this- 62 F in CLT right now; beautiful day out there- initial front is through TYS and TRI. Arctic front is not far behind- there are some pretty incredible contrasts from one side of the Apps to the other right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I hope we see another 25 to 30 mile shift north so that everyone in north ga would at least get an inch. Right now on the euro, only the extreme northwest corner gets less than 0.05. This run even has 0.10 amounts into the western nc mountains. A 25 to 30 mile shift 24 to 30 hours ahead of time is not unrealistic and certainly possible. Of course it could end up going back the other way but with this run, there is now a good consensus on where and how much precip will fall in general. Personally I'm thinking the far NGA "jackpot" will come with the streaking overrunning precip that is supposed to arrive by daybreak across the far north. That kind of stuff almost always over performs. After that anything I get will just be bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 09Z sref mean snowfall Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/427866763968012288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The question is why the shift west? Maybe trough going negative? i guess one could hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's a insane shift west. Will the trend continue? 12z vs. 0z I simply do not trust those maps. Despite totals 2 or 3 times the amount from the 0z run on the back edge, it only increase snow totals by a few tenths of an inch. It's frustrating because a lot of times it shows way too much. One reason why I don't like model snow maps. Lookout, same thoughts for north of I85 Greenville County? I'm only answering this once because We don't want how much for my backyard questions. All you have to do is go back and look at the other models location/amounts and you get about the same as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here's where the latest RAP ends its run at hour 18. If anybody more qualified wants to take a stab at where our northern and southern energy would go next, please go for it. As I compare to earlier runs, the northern energy seems a touch stronger, and the southern energy is headed the wrong direction to phase (SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Skip, VPS looks much closer to SN or IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here is my first call map. I went conservative on the totals, especially in western NC and SC and northern and western GA. Confidence is low in the forecast, so it will be interesting to monitor the trends on the RAP, water vapor, and operational models this evening into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. You have two regions of "A" on there. Can you be more specific on that western "A" over the mountains? My guess is 1-2 for that second area under A. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nate Johnson @nsj 14 mins From @NWSRaleigh - The Winter Storm Watch will be upgraded to a WARNING this afternoon, and they anticipate stretching things to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NWS still showing 20% chance in Greensboro. I couldn't believe when I woke up this morning they only had a 20% chance. Seems crazy they didn't at least have it a bit higher maybe for light snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the latest 12z analysis is different from what the model are having the ULL as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm sure this will throw Brick and others into a frenzy, but a little discussion at RAH about a few of the high res models coming in a little later/drier than the GFS/NAM/Euro. I don't personally think it's concerning as of now given their drier nature, but think a later timing would be preferable. I agree with Allan's call of 3-6 around the Triangle though. Probably 3 for me, 6 for Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For those looking in from the Gulf coast, Santa Rosa county ( in Florida) has decided to close the public schools on Tuesday and Wednesday due to winter weather. No decision from Escambia county (decision expected shortly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As of 18z the piece of energy is sliding south further than models are projecting. That's not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Mike Maze from WRAL posted this on facebook: Looking at the latest round of models for our snow event showing the system speeding up. We could be seeing snow fall here by lunchtime Tuesday. Snow would continue into the evening Tuesday, overnight and end around daybreak on Wednesday. Right now totals look heaviest along and east of I-95. We will iron out the totals by 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As of 18z the piece of energy is sliding south further than models are projecting. That's not good at all. But does that matter though? Most of the models are not even absorbing that energy, right? If that's the case, then maybe it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As of 18z the piece of energy is sliding south further than models are projecting. That's not good at all. Umm... no its not. Look at RAP forecast for 2pm, it's right where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As of 18z the piece of energy is sliding south further than models are projecting. That's not good at all. I dunno if anything its further SE ( and thus east) than modeled yesterday or at least that's how I see it.....now how good or bad that is I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 But does that matter though? Most of the models are not even absorbing that energy, right? If that's the case, then maybe it won't matter. The Euro had some interaction with the trough for enhancement. We shall see though. Umm... no its not. Look at RAP forecast for 2pm, it's right where it should be. Im comparing it to the monster runs that showed 8+inches. I know some are expecting heavy accumulations. Just giving a alternate view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DT thinks we'll get 15:1 ratios with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Outdated image; that's a depiction of last night's 0z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Euro had some interaction with the trough for enhancement. We shall see though. Im comparing it to the monster runs that showed 8+inches. I know some are expecting heavy accumulations. Just giving a alternate view. Gotcha...I couldn't tell on the eWall Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.