WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z Euro ens. looks more ominous for the SAV-CHS corridor with more qpf and ZR suggested for a good portion of the precip. with 850's in the +3 to +5 range before changing to IP and then snow. It is looking more likely that there will, indeed, be some snow accumulations late tonight and in the morning. Wow more than the OP or 0z Ens ? Any big changes north of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nbc future cast, updated Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/427899332096835584 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the NAM ended any more NW trend, now we just have to hope it doesn't get worse. I think the RGEM run will be important run in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm warning here in Conyers, GA(Roughly 25 miles E/SE of Atlanta). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I am still not sold this will be a mostly SN event for areas east of 17 in eastern NC, and think the bust potential is high, maybe expecting 6-10" SN and end with 3-4" mainly IP. It will be interesting to see how MHX approaches this, in addition to the local on air Mets. MHX currently has IP confined to the immediate coastal sections, coastal Onslow and Carteret. Using the 12z RGEM to take a closer look, specifically at 850-700mb thickness, 42hrs as the graphic matches up fairly well with the Euro. The 1550m line is running from about New Bern to just east of Lumberton, cases on the nonogram indicate a mixed bag, ~30% all SN, about the same IP, and the rest mixed. New Bern's sounding at 36hrs based on the 12z NAM is clearly IP, and it does not get much better at 39 or 42hrs. Highest totals should be in areas that stay mostly or all SN. If I had to paint a jackpot right now it would be somewhere along Goldsboro - Williamston - Elizabeth City, for a chance of >10". Confidence that coastal counties and even adjacent counties south of 70 stay all SN is not high. rgemthick.JPG nono.jpg KEWN.JPG I hate to ask but I'm basically on 17 and 264...are we expecting mostly snow or ice? Greenville always seems to get it better than us here in Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest 15z SREF mean has about ~2" for GSP and surrounding areas (KAND, KGSP) for the Upstate SC crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Some serious depletion of QPF going on with latest NAM runs 6z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the NAM ended any more NW trend, now we just have to hope it doesn't get worse. I think the RGEM run will be important run in 30 mins. Very difficult forecast for Wake County. 30 mile shift in either direction could be the difference in 1" and 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings up for most of central and southern Georgia now. FFC did put in their discussion how the northern tier still under watches need to be monitored, but it looks like a good map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes -- looks like .4-.6 frozen for VPS. Not good. NAM looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z NAM still keeps that second slug of moisture for Wed night/Thurs JUST off the coast of South Carolina. If anything, it actually moved another 10 miles or so east from the 12z run. If that did throw back some moisture to the coast, it would likely be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Some serious depletion of QPF going on with latest NAM Are your maps backwards, Skip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nope, but I'm looking more IMBY (Gulf Coast) then elsewhere. Are your maps backwards, Skip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Are your maps backwards, Skip? I believe he was referring to the gulf coast rather than NC SC or GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 wralweather @wralweather 2 mins Adjusting our snowfall forecast a bit westward. More snow for Raleigh & Fayetteville... more ice than snow for Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Gotcha. I saw that small slug of precip in the foothills on that 18z map and I was thinking more rather than less. Sorry bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was trying to point this out earlier but I fear every post will get deleted now.. Anywho. I noticed the temps dropping. Overnight is well below 30 degrees. Even at 20 degrees thats still a much higher ratio than 10:1. Surface temps do not govern ratio's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM slightly colder for chs, some frz rain then a changeover to sleet and snow on the backend. looks to start tomorrow morning around 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 There is one thing i am certain about. That the cutoff will be someplace near I-85. Someone will get heavy snow while someone a few miles will get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ice Storm warning now in effect for Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow more than the OP or 0z Ens ? Any big changes north of there? Yes, %wise. Canton up from 0.04" to 0.10" qpf on the 12Z Euro ens vs. the 0Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nate Johnson @nsj 2m Ensemble members clustering around a signifiant, but not extreme, snow event. Disappointment possible but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at the latest RAP at 18 hours that energy is very N/S oriented and almost dipping into Arizona. 18z GFS had it more E/W oriented and as soon as it got close to AZ it jumped east. We need to play close attention to what the RAP does with that energy. If it can dig a little more I suspect you may get some interaction with that southern vort. At the very least it should help with more precip as it moves further east...again if it digs further than the NAM and keeps a more neutral orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes, %wise. Canton up from 0.04" to 0.10" qpf on the 12Z Euro ens vs. the 0Z version. Larry, Correct me if I am wrong, but the finger that blows up over TN and N GA, looking at some of the simulated radar, it seems there is a "screw zone" between there and the I-85 corridor over GA. Obviously south of the 85 corridor it looks a little more optimistic. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM looks colder it's a good bit colder and actually looks to put a little more snow down in SC. hour 39-42, 850-925mb temperatures crash with still decent precip rates ongoing. still appears a lot of front end ZR/IP along the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nate Johnson @nsj 2m Ensemble members clustering around a signifiant, but not extreme, snow event. Disappointment possible but unlikely. Mean of .47 qpf on the plumes......Mean of 5.17 on total snowfall.......Holding pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GSP looks a little more bullish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Mean of .47 qpf on the plumes......Mean of 5.17 on total snowfall.......Holding pretty steady. Been around that all day, too. Why I think with the higher ratios we will get at least 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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