GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Larry, Correct me if I am wrong, but the finger that blows up over TN and N GA, looking at some of the simulated radar, it seems there is a "screw zone" between there and the I-85 corridor over GA. Obviously south of the 85 corridor it looks a little more optimistic. Thoughts? The 12Z Euro ens suggests a good bit more south of I-85 vs. north. Then again, yesterday it had a good bit less for all ATL metro if I'm recalling correctly. Also, those NAM sims aren't nearly always that accurate. In general, the NAM overdoes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For GA folks Chris Holcomb form 11Alive just put out this map Meh... not in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ice Storm warning now in effect for Charleston I didn't see any updates from the NWS just yet, or upgrades. I'm sure a lot of discussion going on behind the scenes WRT's to what kind of warnings to issue, given the predominant p-type issues. EDIT: NVM, I see the headlining in the ZFP products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREF plumes from 15z give GSO a mean of 3" of snow, but there's a lot of spread. There's a bunch of members with 4-7" and a lot of members with 0-1"... not a lot of middle ground. CLT is a little more clustered with a mean of 3.33" There's a couple ridiculous members and a few duds, but every other ensemble member shows 1-5". It's going to be interesting in the western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 it's a good bit colder and actually looks to put a little more snow down in SC. hour 39-42, 850-925mb temperatures crash with still decent precip rates ongoing. still appears a lot of front end ZR/IP along the SC coast. SF, Do you think the 850's are too warm on the consensus due to the fresh supply of Arctic air not being modeled cold enough? Now it is in the +3 to +5 range, which is very much within the ZR threat zone, before changing to IP and then S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SF, Do you think the 850's are too warm on the consensus due to the fresh supply of Arctic air not being modeled cold enough? Now it is in the +3 to +5 range, which is very much within the ZR threat zone, before changing to IP and then S. Well, the transition line has a shallow layer of arctic air, there's certainly more chances of dangerous ZR accumulations occurring before the warm nose cools, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings as far south as Apalachicola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I didn't see any updates from the NWS just yet, or upgrades. I'm sure a lot of discussion going on behind the scenes WRT's to what kind of warnings to issue, given the predominant p-type issues. Charleston County in the Ice Storm warning...Berkeley and Dorchester in the WSW as they add in the 2-4" of snow. Probably going to be misleading for a lot of people as some parts of those counties dip farther south than Charleston, but those are the facts of county-by-county warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX262 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Meh... not in my book Agree- That appears to be an older map that Holcomb posted from 11Alive. He does not have the Winter Storm Warning areas highlighted on his forecast Map for Georgia. So his forecast totals will most likely be updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I didn't see any updates from the NWS just yet, or upgrades. I'm sure a lot of discussion going on behind the scenes WRT's to what kind of warnings to issue, given the predominant p-type issues. It is in the zones. Ice storm warning for the entire coastal corridor CHS to SAV. Ice accum. of 0.35-0.6 CHS and 0.25-0.50" SAV. For SAV, that would be the worst since 1/1922 if it verifies!! They're going colder than the model consensus of 32-33 in SAV and are going with upper 20's with ZR Tue night followed by a change to snow late Tue night.. Going to be a very interesting Tuesday into Wed.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Charleston County in the Ice Storm warning...Berkeley and Dorchester in the WSW as they add in the 2-4" of snow. Probably going to be misleading for a lot of people as some parts of those counties dip farther south than Charleston, but those are the facts of county-by-county warnings. I had edited my original post, and saw it in the ZFP. yeah, you're right, because based on the ZFP itself, over .50" of ice accretions expected before the changeover. Definitely the potential to be the worst icestorm since Feb 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREF plumes from 15z give GSO a mean of 3" of snow, but there's a lot of spread. There's a bunch of members with 4-7" and a lot of members with 0-1"... not a lot of middle ground. CLT is a little more clustered with a mean of 3.33" There's a couple ridiculous members and a few duds, but every other ensemble member shows 1-5". It's going to be interesting in the western Piedmont. Maybe for w.piedmont , but foothills looks rough going! Looking rough up this way!!! .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. trying to find a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 holding on to what little hope I have here lol. I got Robert on my side at least and now it's always nice to see the RAP giving me the finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREF plumes from 15z give GSO a mean of 3" of snow, but there's a lot of spread. There's a bunch of members with 4-7" and a lot of members with 0-1"... not a lot of middle ground. CLT is a little more clustered with a mean of 3.33" There's a couple ridiculous members and a few duds, but every other ensemble member shows 1-5". It's going to be interesting in the western Piedmont. The Hky mean is 3.00". I would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 412 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 holding on to what little hope I have here lol. I got Robert on my side at least and now it's always nice to see the RAP giving me the finger The 18Z RGEM was even better for NRN GA and SERN TN...same early on overrunning from 15-20Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nate Johnson @nsj 10 mins Why disappointment still possible. RT @jlblaes: The 15Z SREF suggests a growing chc for sleet near/SE of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest HI Res NAM Simulated Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Doesn't seem like much of a change from WRAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Maybe for w.piedmont , but foothills looks rough going! Looking rough up this way!!! .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. trying to find a flake! It's like we have a wall around us in Surry County. Looking at some of the models they still want to bring moisture up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Doesn't seem like much of a change from WRAL. They shifted it about 30 miles west. We are going to miss out on 6" by about 20 or so miles, assuming there isn't a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at the latest RAP at 18 hours that energy is very N/S oriented and almost dipping into Arizona. 18z GFS had it more E/W oriented and as soon as it got close to AZ it jumped east. We need to play close attention to what the RAP does with that energy. If it can dig a little more I suspect you may get some interaction with that southern vort. At the very least it should help with more precip as it moves further east...again if it digs further than the NAM and keeps a more neutral orientation. Yeah I just don't see how the models continue to maintain that baja low and even show it closed at times. Just no way really its being ripped to pieces by the N/S and absorb into the NS aswell. In fact does look like its tracking east atm so it may just get fully absorbed. Which should sharpen the N/S trough and would be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks wetter at 18z out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow -- nice little east shift with southern stream energy on 18z GFS vs. 12z run -- too late to matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS Heavier qpf inland on hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big time change out to 30 on the 18z compared to 12z. This is a good bit wetter for ENC and parts of GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don't know if it's related, but southern stream energy a good 100-200 miles east at 18h. Big time change out to 30 on the 18z compared to 12z. This is a good bit wetter for ENC and parts of GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow -- nice little east shift with southern stream energy on 18z GFS vs. 12z run -- too late to matter? I don't think it matters much but if the GFS is catching on to something and it can speed up a little more it will. Either way nice improvement on the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if MBY didn't finish with like .30 or so on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 From, hour 18 of the RAP. Keep in mind most of this is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can't tell why it went crazy with QPF, looked like 12z to me. We got suckered yesterday with the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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