burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 form my point i see the two PVA interacting to deepen the trough. If the two troughs can combine again, then it will deepen. I hope it shows the same thing at 0z Ah ok. Just wanted to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM has a similar look but it's after hour 18, you can probably shift that southeast too as the rap has a very bad NW bias past hour 12 or so Look back in Texas the fetch of moisture is long. Which leads me to believe as has been all year it's going to be a lot wetter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ah ok. Just wanted to be sure. I hope we can catch some snow outta this. sick of looking at frozen ground. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Short-term discussion NWS ILM; about 2 hours old: AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILLEXPECTED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS ON SUN ANDTHOSE OF TODAY IS THAT THE DEEP AND PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE THAT WASVERY EVIDENT EARLIER IS NOW THAT MUCH MORE EXAGGERATED...UP TO 5 TO7 DEG C ALONG THE COAST. INLAND...ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95CORRIDOR...THE WARM NOSE IS NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT...BUT STILL UPTO 1 TO 3 DEG C AROUND 5 KFT. THUS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVEFREEZING IN A 2 TO 4 KFT LAYER AND THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER HASLOWERED CLOSER TO THE GROUND. WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT DYNAMIC COOLINGCOULD COOL THE COLUMN...IT IS UNLIKELY IT WILL BE ABLE TO BRING THECOLUMN BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT ANDNEARER TO THE COAST. THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS IS THAT WE ARE NOWEXPECTING MORE FREEZING RAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF A FLO TO CPC TOBURGAW LINE...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCHARE EXPECTED WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE ALONG THE COAST. THEWORST OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM SURF CITY AND ILM TOTHE GRAND STRAND AND DOWN THROUGH GEORGETOWN AND BACK ACROSS ANDREWSAND CONWAY AND MOST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. WHERE THE PRECIPITATIONREMAINS MAINLY SNOW...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES ANDHIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS TIME ISEXPECTED FROM WATHA AND EYF TO DILLON AND DARLINGTON AND POINTS NW.EVEN WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEPERIOD OF TIME WHERE SLEET IS ABLE TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THEDAY TUE. ALSO...EVEN WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOMINATES EARLY IN THEEVENT...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AND SO COASTAL AREASSHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENTENDS...WITH POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES FOR SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED LATER TUEAFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ASEARLY AS EARLY TUE MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST ANDSOUTHERNMOST AREAS...EXPANDING N AND W TO INCLUDE MORE INLAND AREASTHROUGH MIDDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST LATER TUEAFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM INLANDTO THE COAST WED MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS TUE EVE...THEMIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...LASTLY AT THE COASTLATE IN THE EVE. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUE MORNING WITH WAVES OF LOWPRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE ARCTICAIR MOVES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS...IT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THEBAROCLINICITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT...HELPING TO FUEL DEVELOPING LOWPRESSURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BESUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADEQUATE PRE-CONDITIONING OF THE ENVIRONMENT ANDSO THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPENSIGNIFICANTLY WHILE THEY ARE DOWN AROUND OUR LATITUDE. THE ARCTICAIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND SLOW TO DEEPEN...WITH WINDS FROM THENORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3 KFT. ABOVE THAT LEVEL...STRONGWINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WSW OR SW. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGOVERRUNNING SITUATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASESHARPLY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO MAXIMIZE TUE EVE AND NIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUETHROUGH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WHERE SNOW REMAINS THE DOMINANTPRECIPITATION TYPE...THESE WINDS WILL SERVE TO BLOW AND DRIFT THESNOW WHILE BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. TEMPS TUEARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND WILL ACTUALLYHAVE A TENDENCY TO DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE 20S AS THE PRECIPITATIONBECOMES HEAVIER AS LOW WET BULB TEMPS ATTEMPT TO RECOVER. TEMPS WILLBE WELL DOWN IN THE 20S TUE NIGHT AND GIVEN THE SNOW AND ICE ON THEGROUND ON WED...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ONWED AS WELL. TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THUAFTERNOON...SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN INPLACE FOR PERHAPS SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 we all are. I would take a significant sleet storm over ZR anyday, and I'm just hopeful that warm nose cools more significantly than that's being shown, NAM/GFS taking steps in that direction, but would it be enough to save many from a severe ice storm beforehand. precip rates could be quite sufficient to do so. From my study of numerous old wx maps, 850's usually have to drop to ~+2.5 to start having the best shot at IP fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Look back in Texas the fetch of moisture is long. Which leads me to believe as has been all year it's going to be a lot wetter . I've seen 3 or 4 snow maps so far, and everyone has us in a dusting-inch. just seen Robert's dusting-inch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man pgv get's hit good this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z NAVGEM looks good, ticked NW from 12z run, precip all the way back to foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I've seen 3 or 4 snow maps so far, and everyone has us in a dusting-inch. just seen Robert's dusting-inch lolIf that don't forget virga !!Still have some time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z NAVGEM looks good, ticked NW from 12z run, precip all the way back to foothills. I'll don't have the precip maps, but the maps on Tropical Tidbits look pretty expansive. Interesting as it should theoretically be the most suppressed of all the models, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, the Baja low is really trending east quickly on the RAP. Moving more than 200 miles in 5 cycles. More in line with the rest of the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ULL aint sitting there like models projected. its moving due east now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 man the ruc is so close to a phase at hour 18. there will def' be some interaction based on this run. this is going to be fun to watch tonight/morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, the Baja low is really trending east quickly on the RAP. Moving more than 200 miles in 5 cycles. More in line with the rest of the models now. Was just about to post about that. It's really starting to move now. Almost looks like it's getting sucked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Was just about to post about that. It's really starting to move now. Almost looks like it's getting sucked east. It really should, there really isn't anything to make it stronger and sit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is looking better and better. Look out on the RAP that vort in the south is moving big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, that was the headline of the 18z GFS run -- moved the southern stream energy 100-200 miles east. man the ruc is so close to a phase at hour 18. there will def' be some interaction based on this run. this is going to be fun to watch tonight/morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points. Keep the trend up for just a little bit longer and that may be the start of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 finally off work. the gfs looks nice for rdu. Finally home myself, even though I didn't get much work done today...LOL! Most of the models have been showing close to .5 qpf for our area. I'm hoping that holds in the future or even better. Maybe that luck of yours is rubbing off on RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, that was the headline of the 18z GFS run -- moved the southern stream energy 100-200 miles east. Yeah.. very similar to the 0z run. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Finally home myself, even though I didn't get much work done today...LOL! Most of the models have been showing close to .5 qpf for our area. I'm hoping that holds in the future or even better. Maybe that luck of yours is rubbing off on RDU! i was talking to allan last night and we were talking how due raleigh is for a significant snowfall. been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points. Hmm. I've never used MAV MOS snowfall amounts before. Is this an actual forecast generated using statistical techniques or is this some best-case scenario? 4-6" is bullish as hell. I've used MAV MOS for temperatures and rainfall, but I guess I'm just finding 4-6" hard to believe, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB Thanks for all the new likes on this page. I'm so overwhelmed I can't answer all the PM's and emails though, but it's very much appreciated. This system is difficult, but it's never easy in the Southeast. I used a heavy dose of pattern recognition a few days ago when I saw the chance coming and the models are still playing catch-up. I have all my specific maps at the premium side, but I do put out custom maps here as well, and am working on one as we speak. The models aren't catching on to two things:1) the amount of isentropic lifting from Texas, Red River and Tennessee Valley tonight and early Tuesday. 2) Not pulling enough energy off the top of the Baja/Mexico upper low, hence every run of RAP each hour increases the moisture output in that initial band, much as I ancticipated.3) The models don't know what to do on Wednesday when the remnants of the Gulf upper low try to get handed off to a "shear axis" near the Tennessee Valley. Instead they sweep everything out to sea quickly, but that might be a big error in eastern Georgia, eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia.4) Overall moisture could still fill in much more than shown, but that's almost unknowable now, until the RAP model or the radar literally tells something different. Be on guard in the morning about anywhere from eastern TN, Alabama and all points east through Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and eventually northern Florida. Yes, Florida Ice and Snow. Imagine!A dangerous ice storm for the SC low country and middle to south Georgia looks likely. Snow amounts are the trickiest to forecast. But much of NC, and VA, especially the further you go, are in fore sizeable snow. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and Norfolk should measure decent snow with this event...Possibly over 6" in Raleigh and Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Keep the trend up for just a little bit longer and that may be the start of it! Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah.. very similar to the 0z run. Fingers crossed. The jump NORTH EAST with that vort on the RAP on 21z compared to 20z almost gave me goosebumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Best guess as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points. I'd take that and run with it. Hard. GSP actually is uping the amounts along the 85 corridor to 2-4; but suggest the greater amounts are south and east of 85....which we already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB Thanks for all the new likes on this page. I'm so overwhelmed I can't answer all the PM's and emails though, but it's very much appreciated. This system is difficult, but it's never easy in the Southeast. I used a heavy dose of pattern recognition a few days ago when I saw the chance coming and the models are still playing catch-up. I have all my specific maps at the premium side, but I do put out custom maps here as well, and am working on one as we speak. The models aren't catching on to two things: 1) the amount of isentropic lifting from Texas, Red River and Tennessee Valley tonight and early Tuesday. 2) Not pulling enough energy off the top of the Baja/Mexico upper low, hence every run of RAP each hour increases the moisture output in that initial band, much as I ancticipated. 3) The models don't know what to do on Wednesday when the remnants of the Gulf upper low try to get handed off to a "shear axis" near the Tennessee Valley. Instead they sweep everything out to sea quickly, but that might be a big error in eastern Georgia, eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia. 4) Overall moisture could still fill in much more than shown, but that's almost unknowable now, until the RAP model or the radar literally tells something different. Be on guard in the morning about anywhere from eastern TN, Alabama and all points east through Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and eventually northern Florida. Yes, Florida Ice and Snow. Imagine! A dangerous ice storm for the SC low country and middle to south Georgia looks likely. Snow amounts are the trickiest to forecast. But much of NC, and VA, especially the further you go, are in fore sizeable snow. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and Norfolk should measure decent snow with this event...Possibly over 6" in Raleigh and Norfolk. I absolutely love reading him in the heart of the storm. Exhausts himself giving us his all. That is one cool dude, Robert is. Miss him being here throughout. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man pgv get's hit good this run. Looking good for us then maybe subzero RDU into eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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