fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DT thinks we'll get 15:1 ratios with this event. I was trying to point this out earlier but I fear every post will get deleted now.. Anywho. I noticed the temps dropping. Overnight is well below 30 degrees. Even at 20 degrees thats still a much higher ratio than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I dunno if anything its further SE ( and thus east) than modeled yesterday or at least that's how I see it.....now how good or bad that is I don't know.It looks good because atleast it's moving and not hanging back. Even if it doesn't do a thing, it just being on the move is good . Looks like the trough is sharper and should keep the N stream a little south and west, and I think that's what we want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 15z sref came in drier on the north west side of the precip shield: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good look at the water vapor loop of the US. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nh_wv_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM ESTWEDNESDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028.WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAYFOR GAZ029.NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAYFOR NCZ033-049-050.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM ESTWEDNESDAY FOR NCZ057-070>072.WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAYFOR NCZ082.SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM ESTWEDNESDAY FOR SCZ004>010.WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAYFOR SCZ011>014-019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NWS-CAE put this on their fb page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sure is Steve. Been following that all day. Good look at the water vapor loop of the US. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nh_wv_loop.php Current 500MB look http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb_sf.gif?1390852023107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm toggling between this map and Allan's map, like I do between 12z and 6z runs -- not seeing much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z NAM at 18hr already more SW with NS, will see if it makes a difference shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don't know if it means anything, but nice strong band of vorticity on 18z NAM showing up along Texas/La. Gulf coast. Checked 12z/6z/0z NAM -- none of them had this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, actually that feature did pop up 6 hours later on the 12z NAM. Still stronger on the 18z -- again, might not mean anything, but it would seem any southern stream interaction is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If that NS drives any harder SW it's going to end up in Arizona! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 precip showing up in southeast tenn @ hr 18 on 18z nam, at hr 21 precip in east tenn widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM is getting a little more bullish with the precip over the mountains at 27 hour. Nothing huge but more than was modeled previously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM is trying to develop something along the boarder of NC and TN. The northern stream appears a little stronger and there appears to be a good amount of moisture at 700 mb streaming in. Interesting to watch as the 12z NAM had a similar feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd say 18z nam is more west than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM is a little further north in GA with the precip. Looks like its quicker to get here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RAH has moved up the timing for NC, and they see a slight west motion, too, it seems. RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAYFOR NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON ESTWEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007-023-024-039-073. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Moar chartz! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.80478&lon=-78.66915&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical Check out the snow chart for your locale! Hurry! Get it while it's fresh! Supply Limited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bummer, it's worse for central NC, didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z nam doesn't seem to get as far west in NC. I expected more out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 317 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2014...Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon Tuesday to noon ESTWednesday...The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a Winter StormWarning for heavy snow...which is in effect from noon Tuesday tonoon EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.* Location...for the southeast half of central North Carolina... roughly along and east of a line from Laurinburg to Lillington to Smithfield to Tarboro.* Accumulation...five to eight inches of snow is expected... with locally heavier amounts possible. The snow may be mixed with a little sleet mainly from Fayetteville to the south and east.* Timing...the snow is expected to fall Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning... with the heaviest snow likely to fall between 3 PM Tuesday and 3 am Wednesday morning.* Main impacts...snowfall rates of an inch per hour for several consecutive hours will quickly coat Road surfaces. This will make travel hazardous Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The snow will likely impact travel on such major routes such as I-95... Highway 421...highways 64 and 264... I-40 east of Raleigh... and Highway 70.* Other impacts...residual snowpack and ice on roads may impact travel through Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM keeps getting skimpier on precip .... southern S/W was actually east on this run, but it didn't generate any extra moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RAH has moved up the timing for NC, and they see a slight west motion, too, it seems. RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007-023-024-039-073. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Yes the totals are upped as well. 5-8 with locally higher amounts. I haven't seen the latest runs yet but I keep checking the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bummer, it's worse for central NC, didn't see that coming. What hour are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z Euro ens. looks more ominous for the SAV-CHS corridor with more qpf and ZR suggested for a good portion of the precip. with 850's in the +3 to +5 range before changing to IP and then snow. It is looking more likely that there will, indeed, be some snow accumulations late tonight and in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here in Central, South Carolina... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC315 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014...HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THENORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA......SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY....COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LOWERWIND CHILL VALUES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERNMOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILLDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY...SPREADING SNOWACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOONHOURS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST THE FARTHER EAST ONEGOES.GAZ018-026-028-NCZ057-070>072-SCZ004>010-280415-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0006.140128T1700Z-140129T1400Z/STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...SALISBURY...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON315 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOONTUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OFNORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND NOON AND BECOME HEAVIER DURINGTHE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Maps are now out for gsp http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I am still not sold this will be a mostly SN event for areas east of 17 in eastern NC, and think the bust potential is high, maybe expecting 6-10" SN and end with 3-4" mainly IP. It will be interesting to see how MHX approaches this, in addition to the local on air Mets. MHX currently has IP confined to the immediate coastal sections, coastal Onslow and Carteret. Using the 12z RGEM to take a closer look, specifically at 850-700mb thickness, 42hrs as the graphic matches up fairly well with the Euro. The 1550m line is running from about New Bern to just east of Lumberton, cases on the nonogram indicate a mixed bag, ~30% all SN, about the same IP, and the rest mixed. New Bern's sounding at 36hrs based on the 12z NAM is clearly IP, and it does not get much better at 39 or 42hrs. Highest totals should be in areas that stay mostly or all SN. If I had to paint a jackpot right now it would be somewhere along Goldsboro - Williamston - Elizabeth City, for a chance of >10". Confidence that coastal counties and even adjacent counties south of 70 stay all SN is not high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm Warning has backed up to Union County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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