DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5s Um, moisture also further NW in newest GFS 18z. +24 hrs (tomorrow afternoon) Atlanta all-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS is trying to bloom more QPF...its getting there, but I noticed its colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can't tell why it went crazy with QPF, looked like 12z to me. We got suckered yesterday with the 18z run. It's probably catching on to the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From, hour 18 of the RAP. Keep in mind most of this is virga. More interaction with the northern energy causing that expansion of precip on the western side? Or is that merely from the overrunning that Robert was talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 54s +30 hrs -- a lot of "not-rain" in the forecast for southeast. Not getting my shovel out in Tallahassee, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS is trying to bloom more QPF...its getting there, but I noticed its colder as well. I really really really hope the colder trends like much of these arctic blasts all winter long are now occurring, and continue to trend colder. the explosion of QPF could deepen the diabatic processes too and might make some difference in areas progged to get a major ice storm hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From, hour 18 of the RAP. Keep in mind most of this is virga. RGEM has a similar look but it's after hour 18, you can probably shift that southeast too as the rap has a very bad NW bias past hour 12 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can't tell why it went crazy with QPF, looked like 12z to me. We got suckered yesterday with the 18z run. That's why they call it Happy Hour! Anyway looking at 18z gfs and hr18 RAP, it lends a lot of support to what Robert was stating earlier and some other mets/ as well. Overruning is always forecasted poorly by models. They have a habit of not throwing the moisture further north and sooner than what usually ends up occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS has bulk of snow with temps in teens for RDU. Would be a first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I really really really hope the colder trends like much of these arctic blasts all winter long are now occurring, and continue to trend colder. the explosion of QPF could deepen the diabatic processes too and might make some difference in areas progged to get a major ice storm hit. gfs and nam have trended colder since last night, when yesterday they were showing mostly frz rain now gfs and nam are showing a good but of sleet before the changeover. i am hoping for minimal frz rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z tries to phase the two systems... But lets remember what the 18z did lastnight before we try and draw conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM has a similar look but it's after hour 18, you can probably shift that southeast too as the rap has a very bad NW bias past hour 12 or so Yea. I'm liking the odds for MBY. I hope the RAP can get that southern energy moving but I think it's starting to look totally out of play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 412 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. My guess is you and all your neighbors are sans chainsaws and generators? MIght be time to make sure your neighborhood at least has one saw Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Back up to close to .3 on the GFS for MBY. Terrible timing too, looks like the bulk would fall during rush hour. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GSP looks a little more bullish: My county in three different categories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I really really really hope the colder trends like much of these arctic blasts all winter long are now occurring, and continue to trend colder. the explosion of QPF could deepen the diabatic processes too and might make some difference in areas progged to get a major ice storm hit. I agree Mike, and I honestly think they will. The cold air has beat the models many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not sure how much of the 80Z GFS to believe just remembering what it did to us yesterday We're starting to get really close to the event. At this point you want any west trend, or precip increase, you can get. At hour 48 -- 24 hour precip totals between .5 and .75 at RDU airport. Even taking the lower number .5 (maybe 6") would be very welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z tries to phase the two systems... But lets remember what the 18z did lastnight before we try and draw conclusions. Which two systems? From what I see it doesn't phase at all with the southern stream. It's digging further south than last nights runs which should be helping with lift. Someone can correct if I'm wrong on that but that's what it looks to me. Let's also remember systems have typically over performed on moisture these last few months as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z tries to phase the two systems... But lets remember what the 18z did lastnight before we try and draw conclusions. The GFS sometimes has significant weather events where a particular off hour run in the days leading up to it, be it the 06 or 18Z is haywire every damn day, I recall this occurring on numerous occasions, the 06Z run may be fine but for 3 straight days the 18Z does something odd...often times, the same thing too each day...never figured out why but it happens, again there is some support from the RAP/RGEM on its idea but lets see if it waffles back at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 2" of snow northern ATL burbs per 18Z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The big thing to me, as far as my back yard, is how close the euro and GFS is on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Back up to close to .3 on the GFS for MBY. Terrible timing too, looks like the bulk would fall during rush hour. Yikes. We need to keep that wet trend up. You're in a little better location than me but I'll take my .25 with 15:1 ratios. I'll take that chance 10 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS gives me .14 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My county in three different categories! Trinity, NC. Seriously? Lol, that is a little hole in the wall town next to me and not close to being shown on that map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yea. I'm liking the odds for MBY. I hope the RAP can get that southern energy moving but I think it's starting to look totally out of play here. I could be wrong, but I don’t think this is accurate. Take a look at 700mb RH on the 18z GFS at 18hrs. You can see a stream of moisture originating from the southern energy in mexico and feeding all the way up into that finger of moisture that runs into the mountains of NC. I feel like the further east that feature gets, the more moisture our northern trough is able to scrap off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's probably catching on to the overrunning. Yeah, wasn't that Robert's theory? He seemed key'd in on that the lift and gulf feed was just going to be very good over our area. Hopefully the QPF creeps up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Which two systems? From what I see it doesn't phase at all with the southern stream. It's digging further south than last nights runs which should be helping with lift. Someone can correct if I'm wrong on that but that's what it looks to me. Let's also remember systems have typically over performed on moisture these last few months as well. form my point i see the two PVA interacting to deepen the trough. If the two troughs can combine again, then it will deepen. The GFS sometimes has significant weather events where a particular off hour run in the days leading up to it, be it the 06 or 18Z is haywire every damn day, I recall this occurring on numerous occasions, the 06Z run may be fine but for 3 straight days the 18Z does something odd...often times, the same thing too each day...never figured out why but it happens, again there is some support from the RAP/RGEM on its idea but lets see if it waffles back at 00z. I hope it shows the same thing at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 finally off work. the gfs looks nice for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 gfs and nam have trended colder since last night, when yesterday they were showing mostly frz rain now gfs and nam are showing a good but of sleet before the changeover. i am hoping for minimal frz rain here. we all are. I would take a significant sleet storm over ZR anyday, and I'm just hopeful that warm nose cools more significantly than that's being shown, NAM/GFS taking steps in that direction, but would it be enough to save many from a severe ice storm beforehand. precip rates could be quite sufficient to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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