DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've found over the years the rap is most useful for mesoscale trends. in scenarios like we have right now you can almost use it to forecast what the nam/gfs will show. also if you know how to read wv loops, you can match it up and see how it's picking up shortwaves, trends etc. Thanks for the explanation. Makes the next run of the NAM and GFS a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rome, GA, was projected to already be down to 31 at 7 PM by the 18Z gfs and 28 by the 12Z NAM, but they were down to only 39 then. Any concern? Is this just another delay? I see Chat. was down to 31, but they were supposed to be down to 25 by 7 PM. Larry, Thanks for all the analysis, I just hit 33 and falling at a good clip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pure weather porn for me, CantonWx, EmersonWx and WeatherKid#27! Thanks for posting Burger.... Oh man that looks amazing haha! Like you were saying I doubt it's right, but woo that sure is fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Larry, I am just NE of Rome and I have 34 imby. Pretty much on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Larry, Thanks for all the analysis, I just hit 33 and falling at a good clip I wonder if the delay in the cold this will translate into a further north storm track. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Larry, I am just NE of Rome and I have 34 imby. Pretty much on track. Thanks, Greg. However, Rome was supposed to be down to 28-31 an hour ago and that apparently will verify some two or more hours late as they are still at 35 at 8 PM. With the slower movement of the Arctic air, could the storm track be affected somewhat and be further north? Isn't everything interconnected? Edit; Nashville is on track, however. It just is that the cold air seems to be lagging in N GA and vicinity. I'll rephrase my Q: Why wouldn't that lead to a more northerly storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks, Greg. However, Rome was supposed to be down to 28-31 an hour ago and that apparently will verify some two or more hours late as they are still at 35 at 8 PM. With the slower movement of the Arctic air, could the storm track be affected somewhat and be further north? Isn't everything interconnected? Edit; Nashville is on track, however. It just is that the cold air seems to be lagging in N GA and vicinity. I'll rephrase my Q: Why wouldn't that lead to a more northerly storm track? From my look is it getting hung in the mountains or was this supposed to happen and SC gets colder pretty late tonight? I wish I could answer your Northern track question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP pulls moisture way up into north AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks, Greg. However, Rome was supposed to be down to 28-31 an hour ago and that apparently will verify some two or more hours late as they are still at 35 at 8 PM. With the slower movement of the Arctic air, could the storm track be affected somewhat and be further north? Isn't everything interconnected? Edit; Nashville is on track, however. It just is that the cold air seems to be lagging in N GA and vicinity. I'll rephrase my Q: Why wouldn't that lead to a more northerly storm track? Certainly makes sense that it would come north some if you consider what Brad P. discussed in his video. His whole argument for everything staying east is the punch from the arctic air not allowing the precip to come further north (and west). If the push is not as strong as advertised, it should allow precip to head further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From my look is it getting hung in the mountains or was this supposed to happen and SC gets colder pretty late tonight? I wish I could answer your Northern track question. Shawn, thanks. This could potentially be a great help to us in the SAV-CHS corridor who don't want ZR. If it quite borderline. Any more small movement north of the storm track could save some or most of us from a major ZR as we could get mainly plain rain instead. If the Arctic air is late, why wouldn't the surface storm form further NW, i.e. closer to the coast and away from the climo position for the coast to get major wintry wx? The further north extent of the precip. would seem to be consistent with that idea. Any other opinions about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Some evening thoughts... 1. I still believe the 2/6-7/1980 and 3/1-2/1980 storms provide good insight into the upcoming event (Message #1227). 2. Some cities in the South and Southeast will likely set daily snowfall records. Below is a chart showing daily snowfall records for January 28 and January 29 for select cities: 3. What is interesting is that a number of the January 28 records were set in 1899 (highlighted). Following that storm, a temporary period of warming occurred during the February 2-5 period. Richmond reached 63° on February 4. February 6-7 saw colder conditions return and then severe cold gripped much of the region during the February 8-15 period. There was also a blizzard during the severely cold period. While one should not automatically assume anything close to as extreme as the 1899 case, the pattern evolution of temporary warming followed by renewed cold appears applicable. Certainly, the 1/27 12z and 18z runs of the GFS support that idea. Great information Don as always. Should note with Charleston (assuming this is KCHS, records only date back to 1930). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Cold air piling into NC now but may be held up a bit coming over the top. Dropped 20 degrees already since about 5:00 or so. Aided by crystal clear skies and a stiff breeze from the NW. I expect we will hit our teens number tonight but for those further south, the delayed frontal passage does raise an excellent question. Does this provide the wiggle room to track north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Shawn, thanks. This could potentially be a great help to us in the SAV-CHS corridor who don't want ZR. If it quite borderline. Any more small movement north of the storm track could save some or most of us from a major ZR as we could get mainly plain train instead. If the Arctic air is late, why wouldn't the surface storm form further NW, i.e. closer to the coast? The further north extent of the precip. would seem to be consistent with that idea. Any other opinions about this? Wouldn’t surprise me at all. It seem’s like around here, more often than not, when it gets to nowcast time the critical thickness lines wind up being 10 to 15 miles further north than everyone expected. The delay in arctic air coming through Georgia would reinforce that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From my look is it getting hung in the mountains or was this supposed to happen and SC gets colder pretty late tonight? I wish I could answer your Northern track question. GSP had our temp falling to 28° by 5:00 pm & we were in the low 40s. The arctic air was slow to arrive but punched its way through & we now have a decent NW wind with a temp of 25.5° approx. 10 miles N of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF is further north and west with a tongue of precip at 21....like a lot further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z sref at hr 21 is further north w/ the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF further west with precip. I'll bet some of those plumes are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z sref at hr 21 is further north w/ the precip. Yep, all consistent. I think we're going to see more northward adjustments and it ultimately MAY save the SAV-CHS corridor from a major headache (major ZR). We'll see how it all plays out. I may be grasping some, but it seems logical to me and we keep seeing northward adjustments. If that low would form, say 50 miles closer to the coast, that would result in several precious degrees warmer and maybe enough to get it above 32 for much of the storm. Stormsfury or anyone else in the area, any opinion about this idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z sref holding w/ a total qpf of .5 for RDU. Around .25 for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP got to admit that sort of has me scratching my head lol - certainly wouldnt complain, but that doesnt seem to match up to most of the other runs i have seen this afternoon/evening (although was super busy so didnt get a chance to look as carefully as i wanted). did i count right, that is for noon? lol, is this robert's overrunning? if so he scores big, i just hope its not all virga as it seems from the qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, all consistent. I think we're going to see more northward adjustments and it ultimately MAY save the SAV-CHS corridor from a major headache (major ZR). We'll see how it all plays out. I may be grasping some, but it seems logical to me and we keep seeing northward adjustments. If that low would form, say 50 miles closer to the coast, that would result in several precious degrees warmer and maybe enough to get it above 32 for much of the storm. Stormsfury or anyone else in the area, any opinion about this idea? Yeah, I'll be interested to see what the nam comes in w/ in about 45 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z sref holding w/ a total qpf of .5 for RDU. Around .25 for CLT. The amount of .10 pushing further west tells me that there are some really good plumes for everyone probably from about Shelby and HKY east. Not that it will happen but it will show that probability is rising that this overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, the SREF mean largely looked the same for much of NC, but it did push the 0.1"-0.25" pretty close to the NC/TN border. I'll take it. Now, it's NAM time. Are YOU ready to get NAMed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GSP is going with 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z sref holding w/ a total qpf of .5 for RDU. Around .25 for CLT.Looks like around .25 for the triad region as well. Southern regions of GA and SC look drier to me. Indicates more overrunning and less emphasis on the gulf/Atlantic part of the storm maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 448 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 NCZ021-022-038-281000- FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON- 448 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TRIAD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can anybody post the SREF mean total precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like around .25 for the triad region as well. Southern regions of GA and SC look drier to me. Indicates more overrunning and less emphasis on the gulf/Atlantic part of the storm maybe. I think it is all interrelated. Arctic boundary slower than projected. Arctic air doesn't get as far south as fast and results in precip further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 GSP is going with 15:1 ratios. I'm really liking our odds. You are in a better spot than me, but with those ratios if we can eek out .25 or .30 or if this really overperforms and get .40 or so this will be one awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, all consistent. I think we're going to see more northward adjustments and it ultimately MAY save the SAV-CHS corridor from a major headache (major ZR). We'll see how it all plays out. I may be grasping some, but it seems logical to me and we keep seeing northward adjustments. If that low would form, say 50 miles closer to the coast, that would result in several precious degrees warmer and maybe enough to get it above 32 for much of the storm. Stormsfury or anyone else in the area, any opinion about this idea? honestly i dont buy it, models have honed in on the frz rain/sleet for our area for the past 2 days, and i have been burned many times with these short range models fluctuating close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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