GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know it is the pretty awful NAM at 48-54 hours, but is that second wave producing snow in Jacksonville on Wed. night? Edit: It looks like the 0z Nam may actually be a little colder during parts of the storm in the SAV-CHS area? Anyone know? The low isn't closer to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 OZ RGEM very, very similar to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 we've reached the wetter and colder phase of the model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It would be great if we had the HRRR right now but of course it was still down on last check +1: More info the better. Anyway NWS has 1-2 my county. Since it's so large I'll use Asheboro as center point and take the over. Very confident right now they see 3.5 min. I'm using 15:1 ratios also out east of a line from Seagrove to Ramseur 4+ min using same ratio based off all guidance since lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ha! All my Shelby peeps kept asking me for a call so I predicted a surprise 2-3 inches. Hell, I never see 'em, what are they going to do if it's wrong? lol that's cause you're chillin in florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New RGEM has come west a little, showing the crazy wake county gradient the euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh, well in that case ... I really just wanted you to post a map, because I'm too lazy to find it myself. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 West compared to 18z similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Total snow through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 "Watching this little piece of energy over Colorado race east and wondering if this might not perk the totals up a bit over the western Carolinas. Something to watch." Brad p via fb Looks like the energy in Colorado is over performing. Could be help with west qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Total snow through 36 hours.That's a tight gradient. 1 to 7 inches in ~20 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Total snow through 36 hours. Just gotta laugh at that hole in the foothills!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Radar is getting ready to light up over TN over next several hours. Will be interesting to see how the returns develop over North GA/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's a tight gradient. 1 to 7 inches in ~20 miles? What's 10" of IP between friends, 3:1 sleet ratio may need some work under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It appears Robert was right on the money with the TN Valley finger of precip. That has materialized right before our eyes as the day has progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's a tight gradient. 1 to 7 inches in ~20 miles? It's going to be painful if the gradient is that extreme and your on the wrong end of it. I am 10 miles from 2" and 2 miles from 7", sitting right on 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF plumes have updated. Just over 3" for Greensboro and Charlotte. Just over 5" for raleigh for the mean. For Greensboro, all but 2 members had at least one inch of snow. Better agreement than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z NAM total precip at hour 39(looks like most models now have RDU at > .5): Ok, this makes more sense. Looks great for CAE to FLO - have family in FLO; maybe I should go visit! On the other hand- still looks extremely paltry for peidmont Anyone have any thoughts on the current satellite trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ok, this makes more sense. Looks great for CAE to FLO - have family in FLO; maybe I should go visit! On the other hand- still looks extremely paltry for peidmont Anyone have any thoughts on the current satellite trends? This is not that great. We have a bit of warm air up in the upper levels that turns a lot of this into a predominate sleet deal for the Midlands like KCAE. You may have a higher snow total in Florence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's going to be painful if the gradient is that extreme and your on the wrong end of it. I am 10 miles from 2" and 2 miles from 7", sitting right on 5". Tomorrow is going to be a lot of fun or very disappointing for our area. That gradient is tight. Every model I've seen has put Wake right on that fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF plumes have updated. Just over 3" for Greensboro and Charlotte. Just over 5" for raleigh for the mean. For Greensboro, all but 2 members had at least one inch of snow. Better agreement than prior runs. Yeah, every member but three showed 1-5.5" of snow and only one drew a blank. There were two weenie members with 10" and 12", but even if you discount those, you still end up with a mean of 3". Even if it's a little wet, we might be able to sneak away with something from this one. The RGEM came a little west for us, too, and put us squarely in the 1-2". The NAM looked like 1" or maybe 2" if ratios were stretched. The members are 15z were pretty varied, despite a similar mean (about half showed <1" while another half showed 4-7"), but now there's decent agreement among them. Time for the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know it is the pretty awful NAM at 48-54 hours, but is that second wave producing snow in Jacksonville on Wed. night? Edit: It looks like the 0z Nam may actually be a little colder during parts of the storm in the SAV-CHS area? Anyone know? The low isn't closer to shore. 850mb might be a tad cooler, but 925mb pretty cold. on Twisterdata, 24hr 925mb looked like -3 around KCHS unless my eyes really need checked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Big time Ice storm this run for ILM - MYR - CHS, more-so than 12z, >.75" in many spots along the coast, >.5" inland. RGEM does a better job imo than the NAM identifying amounts, transition zones and dominant type, this should be taken seriously, scattered power outages would be a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z gfs coming in w/ precip further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tomorrow is going to be a lot of fun or very disappointing for our area. That gradient is tight. Every model I've seen has put Wake right on that fine line. Agreed. Between you, pack backer, and me all could end up with great differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice little NE jog at 9 hours of 0z GFS vs. 18z at 15 re: Southern energy -- going to take more than 50 miles though, I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z SREF numbers for ATL: Max: 12.11 Mean: 3.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z GFS looking better than 18z which we feared was anomalous -- more eastward progression of southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 gfs is a devastating ice storm for chs, mainly frz rain, yikes. and precip lasts much longer than the nam and ends as a bout of snow for the coast, just imagine .50-.75" of ice with an inch or two of snow on top. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS 0Z 24 hour precip (liquid): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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