Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Revised Warning from KCAE says the risk has gone to 80% chance and the cold air possibly being slower isn't a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Eeking out over .20 would be stellar around your area. With every tick west, it will increase. I might be a little to far west and north. I'm really liking our odds. You are in a better spot than me, but with those ratios if we can eek out .25 or .30 or if this really overperforms and get .40 or so this will be one awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z SREF Probabilities RDU 70-80% chance of 4" 50-70% chance of 6" 30-50% chance of 8" 15-30% chance of 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z SREF Probabilities RDU 70-80% chance of 4" 50-70% chance of 6" 30-50% chance of 8" 15-30% chance of 12" Are the probabilities like that on a free source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, all consistent. I think we're going to see more northward adjustments and it ultimately MAY save the SAV-CHS corridor from a major headache (major ZR). We'll see how it all plays out. I may be grasping some, but it seems logical to me and we keep seeing northward adjustments. If that low would form, say 50 miles closer to the coast, that would result in several precious degrees warmer and maybe enough to get it above 32 for much of the storm. Stormsfury or anyone else in the area, any opinion about this idea? The SREF has been consistently far NW of most of the guidance throughout the model watching mayhem. Considering just how far offshore the arctic front is supposed to be tomorrow still lends credence to me that the SFC temperatures will still make it to 32, and evaporational cooling processes will continue to keep those temperatures at or below FRZ, particularly once heavier rates commence. A continual feed of shallow arctic air with breezy north winds 15-20 mph should continue to funnel down a fresh supply of cold, and drier air so temperatures IMO aren't going to go anywhere but hold or fall at the SFC. (albeit it could be later than currently progged, but I still think everything's pretty much on course). to me, it appears that the TD's remains in the mid-upper 20's during the event, with eventual full saturation as the column moistens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good discussion folks, just wanted to add SREFS have been awful up here, be careful putting any stock in their outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Temps now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z SREF Probabilities RDU 70-80% chance of 4" 50-70% chance of 6" 30-50% chance of 8" 15-30% chance of 12" I like those percentages...Showing 15-30% chance of 12" means there have to be some good plumes for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Footer probs... Like the idea of being a little north at this stage, especially with the warm punch at 925-875mb coastal areas may see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good discussion folks, just wanted to add SREFS have been awful up here, be careful putting any stock in their outputs. Thanks Ginxy...What models have you put a lot of stock in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks Ginxy...What models have you put a lot of stock in?obviously the Euro but close in the RGEM has handled thermal profiles very well. Also hi Res NAM inside 36. Real tough forecasts at any rate, hope everyone overperforms on snow and ice underperforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like those percentages...Showing 15-30% chance of 12" means there have to be some good plumes for our area. For RDU the short range models at 18z were roughly (0.25", 0.3", 0.35") for the (12km NAM, 4km NAM, RGEM), where as all the global models (GFS/Euro/UK) were showing 0.5", obviously the short range models higher resolution must be picking up on something, very concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good discussion folks, just wanted to add SREFS have been awful up here, be careful putting any stock in their outputs. Yeah if you are going to give them any weight, go with the mean on the plumes and half it. That is a safe bet. They tend to be too wet. They were rock steady here run after run in the 10-12 inch range for last tuesday on the plumes....I ended up with 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rome, GA, was projected to already be down to 31 at 7 PM by the 18Z gfs and 28 by the 12Z NAM, but they were down to only 39 then. Any concern? Is this just another delay? I see Chat. was down to 31, but they were supposed to be down to 25 by 7 PM.im down to 31 currently so it's not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 obviously the Euro but close in the RGEM has handled thermal profiles very well. Also hi Res NAM inside 36. Real tough forecasts at any rate, hope everyone overperforms on snow and ice underperforms Yeah if you are going to give them any weight, go with the mean on the plumes and half it. That is a safe bet. They tend to be too wet. They were rock steady here run after run in the 10-12 inch range for last tuesday on the plumes....I ended up with 5. Thanks...Good to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 dewpoints in TN are running single digits to single digits below zero, temperatures in the teens already many locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z RAP trends east with southern energy through about 10 hours, then it ends up being a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For RDU the short range models at 18z were roughly (0.25", 0.3", 0.35") for the (12km NAM, 4km NAM, RGEM), where as all the global models (GFS/Euro/UK) were showing 0.5", obviously the short range models higher resolution must be picking up on something, very concerning. That's not good news. I'm surprised at the nam, it's usually overdone on the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For RDU the short range models at 18z were roughly (0.25", 0.3", 0.35") for the (12km NAM, 4km NAM, RGEM), where as all the global models (GFS/Euro/UK) were showing 0.5", obviously the short range models higher resolution must be picking up on something, very concerning. very good point, thanks for adding to my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Footer probs... Like the idea of being a little north at this stage, especially with the warm punch at 925-875mb coastal areas may see. 1foot.JPG That tends to go hand in hand for what I have been hearing in the Southeast NC discussions from the local meteorologist. Said some of the numbers on the extreme coast were a little over done because of ice but that us 30-40 miles inland would see 96% snow. Still crazy seeing those numbers. That go along with your thinking as well WeatherNC? Thanks for all you and your comraides are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 No east trend for southern energy coming with 0z NAM, it appears -- through 6 hours it's actually a bit SW of 18z NAM position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rain already breaking out in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Northern energy also trending the wrong way on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the precip back in arkansas part of our system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wonder if the delay in the cold this will translate into a further north storm track. Any opinions? lol well i have to admit that thought did cross my mind earlier this evening but its coming in now big time and fast and furious. winds have really picked up and down a couple more degrees in the last hour or so (35 currently, down from 55 430ish or so). first thought was figures, we have a storm without worry about cold and then its not here. then oh maybe the boundary sets up in a better location its just roaring in now so am thinking unfortunately no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks to me like our energy is oriented better on this run. More precip around TX, LA vs. 18z on the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I was actually going to say the NAM looked better, the souther vort is a tick east and he NS is a touch south, a little more interact too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the precip back in arkansas part of our system? Mosaic will start to blossom here in the next 4-6 hours. You can classify this as one system, but there are several pieces coming together which is gonna make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 8:30 GSP disco update: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...AS OF 830 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WASSLIGHTLY EAST OF I-85. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OFTHE FRONT. IN FACT...HICKORY COOLED OVER 14 DEGREES OVER THE PASTTHREE HOURS. THE UPDATE WILL CONTAIN SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLYTEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY. TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULDRANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S EAST...OR 35 TO 40 DEGREES COLDERTHAN TODAY/S HIGHS. STRONG CAA AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDCHILL VALUES FALLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THE CURRENTWIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED.SNOWFALL FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLYSTATIONARY ACROSS NRN FL NE ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. BY 12ZTUES...THE AXIS OF A POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL BE OVER THECENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 0ZWEDS. THE 18Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING THATA WIDE FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THESOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BETWEEN 18Z-0Z WED. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIDLEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE FROM THE WEST...PRIMARILY OVERTHE NC MTNS. MODELS RESPOND TO THE EARLY MORNING FORCING WITH LIGHTQPF ACROSS THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTTO INDICATE AN EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. BYMID DAY...AS THE MID LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THEREGION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE SCCOAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...H85-H7FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND THE UPSTATE OFSC...PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z. IN ADDITION...FORCING WILL DEEPENWILL THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THE PEAK OF THELOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A BROAD AREA OFPRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE BEST RATES BETWEEN18Z-6Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL EXTENDFROM BELOW 1 KFT TO 35 KFT DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST FORCING. INADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW...WITHMOISTURE EXTENDING FAR BEYOND THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE.I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE WPC QPF WITH NAM THROUGH 0Z WED. THISAPPROACH WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND ACROSS THEEASTERN PIEDMONT. SNOW RATIO GUIDANCE FAVORS VALUES AROUND 15 TO 1.THE AREA ACROSS GRAHAM TO SWAIN IS CLOSE TO ADVISORY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not compared to 18z. I was actually going to say the NAM looked better, the souther vort is a tick east and he NS is a touch south, a little more interact too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.