packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Definitely should be better the NS energy is less positive tilted and a tick south, the southern energy is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wouldn’t surprise me at all. It seem’s like around here, more often than not, when it gets to nowcast time the critical thickness lines wind up being 10 to 15 miles further north than everyone expected. The delay in arctic air coming through Georgia would reinforce that idea. I can second this - rarely do the colder temps make it far enough south, in our area at least, in time for snow. It seems it always takes longer than expected coming over the mtns. IMO that may be the only hope for most of us NW piedmont peeps, as the virtually none (other than the RAP) of the models give us anything other than a dusting from quick hitting showers tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It doesn't look like the northern energy dug as far south this run. This could keep precip east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Although now at 15 hours it has moved SOUTHeast of the 18z run after lagging behind it early in the run -- it is better organized, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That is last nights SREF, bing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z SREF Atlanta MEAN: 6.26" Figure around 3 then. Not a uniform cluster and SREFS run wet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is wetter for practically everyone in the SE out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The nam is coming in warmer also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks, Greg. However, Rome was supposed to be down to 28-31 an hour ago and that apparently will verify some two or more hours late as they are still at 35 at 8 PM. With the slower movement of the Arctic air, could the storm track be affected somewhat and be further north? Isn't everything interconnected? Edit; Nashville is on track, however. It just is that the cold air seems to be lagging in N GA and vicinity. I'll rephrase my Q: Why wouldn't that lead to a more northerly storm track? Certainly makes sense that it would come north some if you consider what Brad P. discussed in his video. His whole argument for everything staying east is the punch from the arctic air not allowing the precip to come further north (and west). If the push is not as strong as advertised, it should allow precip to head further north. i would agree is *should* (wishcasting) but now that i am witnesses the arctic front passage, increasingly roaring winds and rapidly dropping temps it probably will make it on down to the coast. if i am not mistaken, the RAP has actually done a fairly decent job with the microclimate areas around n central, ne ga, the nc mtns and upstate. its interesting but if the low dewpoints in TN crash on down looking to be a massive monster virga storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The SREF has been consistently far NW of most of the guidance throughout the model watching mayhem. Considering just how far offshore the arctic front is supposed to be tomorrow still lends credence to me that the SFC temperatures will still make it to 32, and evaporational cooling processes will continue to keep those temperatures at or below FRZ, particularly once heavier rates commence. A continual feed of shallow arctic air with breezy north winds 15-20 mph should continue to funnel down a fresh supply of cold, and drier air so temperatures IMO aren't going to go anywhere but hold or fall at the SFC. (albeit it could be later than currently progged, but I still think everything's pretty much on course). to me, it appears that the TD's remains in the mid-upper 20's during the event, with eventual full saturation as the column moistens up. SF, Thanks as always. Even a delay of a few hours of 32 could make a huge diff., especially in the Savannah area. I wonder if the 0z will be warmer at the surface and at 850 mb. My study of wx maps for big coastal winter storms tells me that if the low is just a little closer to the coast, it would put it closer than climo suggests fwiw. I respect your knowledge of the area, but wouldn't a closer in low mean warmer temp.s due to a little bit of ocean influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow, much much better, need to wait on more detailed maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Figure around 3 then. Not a uniform cluster and SREFS run wet anyway. Last nights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh my gosh, you can literally feel the southern stream energy STRAINING to link up .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Folks in ENC are going to pray this run is correct. It really beefs up total there with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 00Z RAP is already behind the curve on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The NAM is backing the flow even a bit more and focusing really nice upper level divergence over central/eastern Ga/Carolinas. Just really subtle differences seem to make a big difference run to run in exact placmeent of zone of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sorry for the bad info...I wasn't seeing what everybody else was. I had to clear my cache. Looks like a great nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Folks in ENC are going to pray this run is correct. It really beefs up total there with QPF. As was pointed out it is warmer, need to see temp profiles, could be some mixing east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The baja ULL is a little further east which IMO is the important feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i would agree is *should* (wishcasting) but now that i am witnesses the arctic front passage, increasingly roaring winds and rapidly dropping temps it probably will make it on down to the coast. if i am not mistaken, the RAP has actually done a fairly decent job with the microclimate areas around n central, ne ga, the nc mtns and upstate. its interesting but if the low dewpoints in TN crash on down looking to be a massive monster virga storm I agree with the RAP doing well for our area...it has depicted the last few clippers very well showing the lee side dry slot and picking back up east of the area. So it's the one im watching along with the hi res models. GSP's disco has peaked my interest as well talking of the widespread moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i would agree is *should* (wishcasting) but now that i am witnesses the arctic front passage, increasingly roaring winds and rapidly dropping temps it probably will make it on down to the coast. I think the high was supposed to be 1040, but it's showing 1034, could it have weakened a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does any of this further expand the precip shield into the foothills, or no? It does look like it's catching on to that burst of overrunning into western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Man, the trend of shutting off precip in the Gulf Coast and Mid South continues -- eastern NC/SC's gain is La./southern Ala./southern Miss.'s loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is wetter and colder at H85 and 2M across GA vs the 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SF, Thanks as always. Even a delay of a few hours of 32 could make a huge diff., especially in the Savannah area. I wonder if the 0z will be warmer at the surface and at 850 mb. My study of wx maps for big coastal winter storms tells me that if the low is just a little closer to the coast, it would put it closer than climo suggests fwiw. I respect your knowledge of the area, but wouldn't a closer in low mean warmer temp.s due to a little bit of ocean influence? yes, there would be some ocean influence. SST's nearshore are quite cold right now, low to mid 40's. wall of the Gulf Stream is a bit farther offshore and would argue the SLP would form around that area where the best baroclinicity should reside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM doesn't do much for CLT and points west at all. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As was pointed out it is warmer, need to see temp profiles, could be some mixing east of 95. We skate the 1550m line during the height of it, could still be all SN, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Status quo for the SC coast, although precip cuts off even earlier on this run...a few hours before 7am (by then the 700mb RH is below 60%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The baja ULL is a little further east which IMO is the important feature. Thanks! Can you also throw down some of your BOS magic you have had the past two winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM doesn't do much for CLT and points west at all. Sorry. Giant dry-ish slot right along 85 all the way from ATL to CLT, pretty much. That early piece of energy that scoots up 59 and 75 needs to come east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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