CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You know the other thing that is wavering are the heights by the Davis Straits too. Models seem to have a more +NAO there which also is causing them to come closer regarding storm track. However, the blocking is strong enough such that if any piece breaks off or branches over..that storm sure ain't cutting. The blocking in AK if anything has been steady to slightly increasing. I sit here looking at all the pieces and this reeks of model mayhem...perhaps the toughest pattern yet to resolve for New England. The Plains are easy...cold and more cold....but the question becomes the populated northeast. If that isn't enough...good luck figuring out which s/w will cause a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well lets see what model is correct w MJO . Phase 6 rain Or phase 7 white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow at some on here............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow at some on here............ Lol @ most everyone Currently 43 and R- Snow pack holdin tight Its a good thing we had that high qpf wet snow last saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well lets see what model is correct w MJO . Phase 6 rain Or phase 7 white Meh, more to it than that. That is a part of it, but the ridge retro is something that has picked up a little steam. There are some factors that are leading to the MJO RMM plots weakening and dying out when in fact the MJO isn't weakening..there are just competing factors that are negating the signal. The amount of retrogression of the ridge is somewhat in question from what I gather and models might be trying to retro this more than it should. The other question is what happens by the arctic and Davis Straits. The GFS op tries to have some weenie -NAO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If you only knew.Steve has a pretty good idea, just not the latest garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Damn, that is impressive for my old stompng grounds on Camp Lejune. Wow. 4-8", perhaps lollis to 1'. Highs int he 20s and lows near 10....omfg. Paris Island get in on the fun? Recruits out for a shovel party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Meh, more to it than that. That is a part of it, but the ridge retro is something that has picked up a little steam. There are some factors that are leading to the MJO RMM plots weakening and dying out when in fact the MJO isn't weakening..there are just competing factors that are negating the signal. The amount of retrogression of the ridge is somewhat in question from what I gather and models might be trying to retro this more than it should. The other question is what happens by the arctic and Davis Straits. The GFS op tries to have some weenie -NAO ridging. Hopefully the ridging was over retro'd Scott is there anything that makes u think gfs is right with weenie ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hopefully the ridging was over retro'd Scott is there anything that makes u think gfs is right with weenie ridging Nothing stands out to me. GEFS rolling out now and seem to have some higher heights there. The day 8-9 event is there and still cold on them. The SB storm seems touchy. Weak and a little mild for some..especially s coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The low for the day 8-9 system on the GEFS mean passes off the NJ coast and towards Cape Cod. No real surprise there. The ensembles are doing a better job of handling the gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 LOL, I know I was mad busy just got on at like 10. Epic just epic southern storm progged. Pawleys Island jackpot, beach, babes, beer cancel If I can't golf, nobody can! Pretty epic forecasts in that area right now. GFS spitting out nearly an inch of ice at ILM. It's pretty rare to see significant icing on the coast of New England let alone North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro about to make Eyewall swan dive for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If I can't golf, nobody can! Pretty epic forecasts in that area right now. GFS spitting out nearly an inch of ice at ILM. It's pretty rare to see significant icing on the coast of New England let alone North Carolina. Having grown up partly around Charleston, SC I got a kick out of reading their AFD this morning and remembering what it's like down there when anything frozen appears. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro about to make Eyewall swan dive for Saturday. That is quite the mini-torch on Saturday...low going up through Toronto. That's a SE MA special for 50F. Kind weird how far NW the Euro is on that system given other guidance...but we're getting to about D5. So someone will have to make a move soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That is quite the mini-torch on Saturday...low going up through Toronto. That's a SE MA special for 50F. Kind weird how far NW the Euro is on that system given other guidance...but we're getting to about D5. So someone will have to make a move soon. 558 thicknesses with srly flow would get a lot of us into the 50s if that happened. GEFS weren't pretty either despite the cold look, so something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lets see which model blinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think GFS had support of its ensembles. If Euro Op does as well, then we have a true war. If they are both supported by their ensembles then I would take the compromise, allowing for each model's biases. And then....as Eyewall plunges off the cliff he will grow pretty angel wings and glide softly onto a bed of white goose down feathers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Cutters gone cut. I have no chips in on this one but I feel "wagons north" with SB weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 558 thicknesses with srly flow would get a lot of us into the 50s if that happened. GEFS weren't pretty either despite the cold look, so something has to give. I did not like the look of the GEFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I thought someone said the 12z models came in colder? Sounds warmer, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be funny if coastal NC saw a bigger snowstorm than many of you all season. Har-har-har. We'll get you back sometime for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I thought someone said the 12z models came in colder? Sounds warmer, lol. 40's into VT with RA- and FROPA haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Let's see. GFS vs Euro at d5 with major H5 differences. I think I know where I would lean. Hopefully the GFS scores a coup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Har-har-har. We'll get you back sometime for that one That wasn't meant to be a dig...lol. Well weenies now jump for joy next week with a big snow and icestorm...lol. This pattern is going to cause heart attacks for some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 D8-9 looks great for CNE/NNE. I hate to even be watching it at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Gfs probably wins Saturday and Euro probably wins early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Let's see. GFS vs Euro at d5 with major H5 differences. I think I know where I would lean. Hopefully the GFS scores a coup though. I still doubt the op gets that wound up. Also looking down the road..you can see how the PV is your friend with confluence on the 12z euro op. That will change about 15 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Let's see. GFS vs Euro at d5 with major H5 differences. I think I know where I would lean. Hopefully the GFS scores a coup though. GFS showed the way on last weeks storm, the Euro totally caved to it, and then the GFS ended up being a bit too amped. But the Euro was way off 5 days out. (disclaimer: this was written with a slight sense of panic moving into my chest and through my fingers.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The EURO just shifted from toronto to cape cod in one run.. for the day 9 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man watch Greenland going forward. It might be a fairy tale...but any ridging there is crucial to our sensible wx. Euro op has it too. That's the difference between congrats Ottawa and congrats us as New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.