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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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Well the Euro looks horrible for the 2nd/3rd, unless you like rainers. It brings the sfc low from the lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Definitely looking more cutter-like. Temps climb into the 40's all the way to the CPV here, through north-central NH through southern ME with 50's in Southern New England. There may be some front end overrunning snows before a changeover, but either way this would be a toaster bath scenario for NNE given the track record of this winter, and SNE people wouldn't be thrilled either.

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I wouldn't swallow a shot gun because the op run has that solution.

 

No, only if that solution is the one to verify ;). However it has consistently showed an overrunning  snow to mixed-p to rain solution for that time frame. That is where the run I have access too ends so I can't see the pattern it tries to set up after, but it doesn't matter all that much that far out in a model anyway.

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Well the Euro looks horrible for the 2nd/3rd, unless you like rainers. It brings the sfc low from the lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Definitely looking more cutter-like. Temps climb into the 40's all the way to the CPV here, through north-central NH through southern ME with 50's in Southern New England. There may be some front end overrunning snows before a changeover, but either way this would be a toaster bath scenario for NNE given the track record of this winter, and SNE people wouldn't be thrilled either.

I would not complain.

If it snows, awesome, but if it doesn't, lets warm up.

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No, only if that solution is the one to verify ;). However it has consistently showed an overrunning snow to mixed-p to rain solution for that time frame. That is where the run I have access too ends so I can't see the pattern it tries to set up after, but it doesn't matter all that much that far out in a model anyway.

It's an outlier right now including this 12z gfs op. I wouldn't worry about snow to rain there. Even I it did mix, it would be a net gain.

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It's an outlier right now including this 12z gfs op. I wouldn't worry about snow to rain there. Even I it did mix, it would be a net gain.

 

Yes it is and the 12z GFS Is certainly colder and snowy with its solution for that time frame. It is also quite a bit slower with the timing for the system.

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Yep, we shouldn't... but worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. Just like the rest of the guidance. Hopefully it threads the needle. That time frame has been flagged for a little while now.

 

I wouldn't mind pushing it to Feb 4th as I will be trying to fly back to BTV on the 3rd.

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Yep, we shouldn't... but worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. Just like the rest of the guidance. Hopefully it threads the needle. That time frame has been flagged for a little while now.

Yup , i mean given the amount of cutters we've had this year, we shall see.

Hopefully it gets squashed , are we in a situ where anything amped will cut?

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I would not complain.

If it snows, awesome, but if it doesn't, lets warm up.

Heck ill a warm up as well, just not a wet one.

Im goin back and forth on sne winter . part of me is afraid if i dont move to a snowier climate in a year or two (150"+") , soon i may rather be in fl for winter, aside from a KU or ski vaca up here. I need to start enjoying this winter more and skiing @ a good mtn will help.

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