Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pickles has lost it. Ease back man. Nothing has been decided yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know if that Meteostar 16 day model is accurate or where they get their info but I really like the layout for a numbie like me that doesn't know anything. I do know that the 850mb on the 2/4 range was maxing at 3+ on the chart yesterday, way below it now. Of course, I have absolutely no idea how significant the 850mb temp is but anything above zero anywhere on the chart and I start huffing and hyperventilating and going oh no the sky is falling in ways I don't like. All I know is too much ice for a fat bike and I would be dead if I tried to ride the road bike outside so forgive me if the fumes from the paint cans have eaten my brain with the 12 hours of riding to nowhere every week down cellar. At the top of the output it shows you what model and run.. Like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The first week of February could be rather interesting though. While we do lose the strong ridging poking well into Alaska, there may be enough ridging up there to prevent the developing SE ridge from pushing into our region...is that a given? Certainly not but at this timeframe it's impossible to say which way this will go. Regardless, even if we go get into a period of ridging and mild weather, the Euro only keeps that in place extremely briefly as it redevelops the ridging well into Alaska. What's also good is Canada never warms, so the source region remain cold. The STJ though looks like it could be quite active so we could have a solid storm threat the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Geezus what the heck is going on in here. Take the GEFS/ECENS and run. A euro op run at 200 hours that cuts and all of a sudden all of Feb is rainers? Has anyone looked at any Ens runs? Wow, there are some here I thought had more knowledge who have made some really strange posts lately. As far as a neg PNA in Feb being a bad thing???? History, 1994 being just one, says different. I guess we toss all Ens, CFS, weeklies and think one op cutter determines a months fate. as long as that PV is over Hudson Bay region and rotating around as shown on ENS its going to stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 wow this thread is mostly unreadable. Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wasn't a slight relaxation in the cold expected in early February (followed by a return to below normal)? At least that's what I've been gathering from reading thoughts in the main forum over the past week or so. Exactly 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As has been the case the last few days...12z guidance will come in colder and everyone will be happy...only to swan dive off the nearest elevated platform tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 wow this thread is mostly unreadable. Christ no, pretty lively discussion, you post that same post about once a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be funny if coastal NC saw a bigger snowstorm than many of you all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 no, pretty lively discussion, you post that same post about once a weekIf you only knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 There's about 4 shortwaves in the flow between D5-D9 that could impact our sensible wx in a fairly large way...so the early advice would be to sit back and watch it unfold for the next 2-3 days on model guidance before getting too married to any solution. There's also a pretty strong confluence signal north of us, so even if the sfc low tries to track west, I wouldn't be shocked if we see stubborn cold which can produce ice in the interior and front end thumps for a larger area. We might even still see a smaller event of either snow or liquid on SB weekend....that event is still pretty undecided and its 2-3 days sooner than the D8-9 stuff...so honestly, its foolish to make deterministic posts in a situation that requires probabilistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be funny if coastal NC saw a bigger snowstorm than many of you all season. Lol, thats just mean, "many of you" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm a bit confused... GFS was not bad, Euro has not been great at these... expecting warm and wet, but not locking that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We are a re-active bunch of irrational diaper wearing me first winter snobs. nothing is ever good enough until our backyards have snow up to our windows....but if our next door neighbor has it up to his gutters, we'll run over there in the middle of the night with a blow dryer and melt it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be funny if coastal NC saw a bigger snowstorm than many of you all season.not much of a stretch here in death valley lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol, thats just mean, "many of you" It wasn't meant to be...but that's quite the storm down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It wasn't meant to be...but that's quite the storm down there. LOl, it was funny at the same time, Pawleys Island FTW? dude those folks are screwed, especially with an Arctic blast to follow, serious ice storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be funny if coastal NC saw a bigger snowstorm than many of you all season. Damn, that is impressive for my old stompng grounds on Camp Lejune. Wow. 4-8", perhaps lollis to 1'. Highs int he 20s and lows near 10....omfg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 LOl, it was funny at the same time, Pawleys Island FTW? dude those folks are screwed, especially with an Arctic blast to follow, serious ice storm too Wow. Have to offer up a tip of the cap to mother nature for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Damn, that is impressive for my old stompng grounds on Camp Lejune. Wow. 4-8", perhaps lollis to 1'. Highs int he 20s and lows near 10....omfg. serious bidness down there not like up here, you know even further south is worse, they are not equipped, and the ice storm followed with Arctic air, oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whoa - just saw the 00z Euro. That is absolutely hideous. Cutter followed by a cutter. Let's hope that doesn't happen or I will have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whoa - just saw the 00z Euro. That is absolutely hideous. Cutter followed by a cutter. Let's hope that doesn't happen or I will have a meltdown. you sleep too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 50 degrees. Leon must be watching Alf reruns. Nice little hit for the cape this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey bob, don't tell me to look at the whole thing... how am I going to cherry pick what I want to see out it if I start doing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 you sleep too late Was up at 8 - didn't get on the computer until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Was up at 8 - didn't get on the computer until now. LOL, I know I was mad busy just got on at like 10. Epic just epic southern storm progged. Pawleys Island jackpot, beach, babes, beer cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whoa - just saw the 00z Euro. That is absolutely hideous. Cutter followed by a cutter. Let's hope that doesn't happen or I will have a meltdown. now im really nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 now im really nervous Shaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As has been the case the last few days...12z guidance will come in colder and everyone will be happy...only to swan dive off the nearest elevated platform tomorrow morning. And it starts with the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And it starts with the SB. Those that didn't melt down this morning smiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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