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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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Nice euro run. SB eve system that cuts west of us has its torchiness minimalized. 2/3 system hits SNE with a light event which is a good spot for it right now. And then the 2/6 system is still on. Ens came in quite a bit colder too and have the 2/10 threat. Potentially active times.

High potential patterns mean might as well get the "toaster bath watch" up for someone...either far north or far south depending on how it shakes out, lol. Weenies going to want full potential reached.

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I feel like I have a shot for a light-mod event on the weekend...maybe a bit tainted, but HPC is talking about an expanding area of precip moving towards the northeast. Lots of cold air around, decent snowpack, early Feb, I think it could turn out well. And then it gets really fun.

Looks good for you
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I'm not bitching, haha. We all may not be as content as you Ginxy ;) I'm just looking for a solid 7+ event. I'm with 40/70 in that by Feb and March you start looking for something bigger tha nickel and dime. This pattern has that potential and we still have some ground to make up on climo, let's do it in Feb.

hopefully May produces for you
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interestingly colder on the GFS than depicted by posters here. I mean people like MPM don't break 25

Seems like the mild consensus is based on the depiction of the low tracking across SNE. Tough to get a cold/snowy solution out of that regardless of what the temp. isobars on the model map suggest. Even up here that looks wet, at least near the coast. May be a different story for those well north and west.

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I remember in the same time frame (4-5 days out) gfs had us wintry which ultimately verified as 65 for Kevin and backdoor pike northward but no snow anywhere. This was for the weekend if 12/20 I think.

GFS had yesterday's event south of SNE last week lol. I remember when I said this was a NNE storm and even that turned out too far south.

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