Patrick-02540 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Patrick there's not much to talk about really. SREF and even the HRRR/RAP are unreliable at the given ranges. Basically most of us are just watching and waiting. It is an interesting look right now at 0z so I do not expect this to be smooth forecast sailing and I'll leave it at that for now. Ok. So I guess I'm going to take my Great Pyrenees for a walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z Nam thru 9hrs looks much drier with lead impulses off southeast... whether that means the lead spoilers are weaker vs. we have less moisture influx to work with, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM looks to have initialized stronger at 5h compared to 18z 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah...backed off some more.now watch the nam show 1" back to ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 At 12 hours, rather decent for waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Before the NAM comes in......does anyone know where the Weather Channel is getting the 12-18"+ swath for everyone? Are they riding the RGEM and ignoring everything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z NAM is def a bit more impressive with the trough/vortmax down south...I suspect that round 2 will be more robust than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know it's early, but based on 500mb...I would think this run will be at least a bit better than 18z. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 At 12 hours, rather decent for waa. Too late, storms over RAP and HRRR say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe I can help. Matt prefers to put single numbers on his maps that represent what he feels is a realistic expectation for what is going to happen. So I guess in a way it is an average. He told me that past experience has shown him that most viewers only recognize the number at the top of the forecast range. So to fix this problem he went to single number forecasts believing that even though his forecast was a single number people would still be able to recognize it as really x +- 1 or 2. That makes a lot of sense...i always just take their numbers and think about it as the average of a given range. If it says 12" and NWS has 10-14", they are the exact same forecast. But people will focus on the 14 in the NOAA forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I expressed concern yesterday the WAA was not gonna work out as well as many hoped...the first hint of that was the 12Z SPC WRF today which was putrid on the SIM radar echoes with it for tomorrow and I have been following the HRR for hours and it does not look good nor does the RAP...it seems with these systems that dying low or inland vort tends to either die way before or later than modeled and the trends for the last day or so were for it to hit the crapper earlier which would mean less of a vort back west and hence less WAA I stayed out of the WAA conversations, didn't interest me then nor does it now. Should contribute some, but we will have to see how much. The RAP and others show that first weak wave moving by towards 12-15z and at that point the OES type contributions start. Could be a snowy situation in east coastal sections but where it sets up is a big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think the WAA will be fine. It;s prolonged. That is an arctic dome, Forky can fart and 6 hrs later light snow will blossom over Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm liking the waa part. Looks like a nice burst on. 0z nam through hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Too late, storms over RAP and HRRR say so lol...all a met did was comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Before the NAM comes in......does anyone know where the Weather Channel is getting the 12-18"+ swath for everyone? Are they riding the RGEM and ignoring everything else?It's because they are a joke and aren't a respectable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The weenies on the bus go round and round, round and round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Peeps be hatin' on my WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 this run should be better than 18z; the s/w over AR appears to be amplifying more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The worrying is underway, Just make another pot of coffee Haha...as long as expectations were in check there should be no worrying. If I was TWC though I'd be worried about 12-18" from Syracuse to Boston, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pike area already up to 0.25+ through 18 hours qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 At 12 hours, rather decent for waa. Some of that esp by morning is OES contribution I think too. Off Topic but the premium NAM products on this site really need an accumulated 6 and 12 hour precip total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Verbatim BOS has 3-5 by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's because they are a joke and aren't a respectable source. TWC has the best verification scores of any commercial forecast outlet, and better than the NWS. That said, widespread 12-18 is way too bullish here, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Some of that esp by morning is OES contribution I think too. Off Topic but the premium NAM products on this site really need an accumulated 6 and 12 hour precip total. Yeah...I've been realizing that. I'll talk to Allan about it...48hr too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm amazed so many schools are already closed for Thursday. Looks meager tonight. Strong hints of oes getting involved even by this panel though. We will have to see how that goes overnight I'm kinda surprised how many people are going with > 10" amounts for a large chunk of the region. Yes we should have decent snowfall ratios, but you still need decent frontogenesis to really rev up the omega into the snow growth region aloft. It starts with lift, and if there isn't any or its limited at best, you can be as cold as you want and not much will happen :-/ Now obviously its too early to sound the alarm yet, but I like to use the hourly mesoscale guidance to get a feel for how things are lining up in comparison to the global models to see if there are significant deviations. Thus far it looks like the major deviation is that the initial frontogenetical forcing expected for tonight is largely absent or diminished. This has implications not only for the short term WAA induced snowfall, but also how much the coastal cyclone will ramp up, as a stronger temperature gradient traditionally aids in more robust surface cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah...coming back to the seats after halftime with more beer...lol. Bacardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Some of that esp by morning is OES contribution I think too. Off Topic but the premium NAM products on this site really need an accumulated 6 and 12 hour precip total. 21 hours shows that well with continued decent snow in eastern areas ORH and east and up and down the coast including the cape as well a lower nh/vt with less in ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I just can't figure out the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know it's early, but based on 500mb...I would think this run will be at least a bit better than 18z. Lets see. H5 was better, Should be a little more amped and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 TWC has the best verification scores of any commercial forecast outlet, and better than the NWS. That said, widespread 12-18 is way too bullish here, IMO. Best verification scores nationwide? Or in the region? How is that determined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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