weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I thought rap in the post 6 hour range has a NW bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR and RAP are not exactly in their wheelhouse yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've never understood the whole school closing before a flake has fallen. Wake up at 4am and assess then. Why waste snowdays especially early int the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I thought rap in the post 6 hour range has a NW bias? It sometimes does, but doesn't usually have a dry bias...it's usually moist. I think the main point wasn't the location of the WAA precip but how weak it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray if these waa snows dont produce more than 2-3/4 this event looks pedestrian outisde cape Ann/route 1 corridor and se mass /cape imo. And when i say predestination i mean under warning totals. We need big amounts from WAA and it needs to produce , i have only heard phil sound alarm on this looking weaker but ...meh this storm is sort of a mess. That lead vort w precip blossoming off se coast pushing best barcolinity off shore doesnt inspire much confidence in me of much of a coastal. I got ripped a new one for suggesting that I may only see 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've never maybe thought more then 6-10" here and I'll stick to that. BOXs 10-14 is extremely bullish IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR and RAP are not exactly in their wheelhouse yetWell snow will start falling in shortly (flurries already) in western areas, so it's pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the SREF mean is pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I got ripped a new one for suggesting that I may only see 8". I agreed with you but was just giving you a hard time. Never posted that part once everyone else gave you a hard time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Would weaker WAA snows have a positive affect on the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well snow will start falling in shortly (flurries already) in western areas, so it's pretty close. I think that was an hour 18 image though. Sort of the equivalent to late hour nam. I just wouldn't worry yet. I'll continue to through caution flags for portions of the western interior specifically portions of CT. Coastal enhancement should keep things going during the duration for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Srefs: 1.0 immediate shore cape ann to about 5 miles east of BOS but including south shore to the mid cape. 1.25 mid cape east. 0.75 Essex and middlesex cty in ma and PSM in nh only...just immediate nh coast. 0.5 widespread elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The worrying is underway, Just make another pot of coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agreed with you but was just giving you a hard time. Never posted that part once everyone else gave you a hard time lol. This has just never struck me as a region-wide 1' type of deal. Maybe I'll be wrong, but just some advice.....don't ever hold back in far of criticism. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've never maybe thought more then 6-10" here and I'll stick to that. BOXs 10-14 is extremely bullish IMO.yeah that is a reasonable forecast for our area .. imho if everything goes 'right' then maybe we'll see a 1' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the SREF mean is pretty lame Yeah...backed off some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NECN? Not a fan of the single numbers. Is that the low/high/average in those areas? From a pure contouring, I don't mind it. Never understood why NECN refuses to employ ranges...so dumb. I always interpreted it as "up to x inches of snow". That way they can never say they busted badly because they never set a minimum amount. I like the single numbers if they're the average expected accumulation +/- an inch or two, but if that's the case narrow ranges would work just as well and probably not confuse the public as much. Maybe I can help. Matt prefers to put single numbers on his maps that represent what he feels is a realistic expectation for what is going to happen. So I guess in a way it is an average. He told me that past experience has shown him that most viewers only recognize the number at the top of the forecast range. So to fix this problem he went to single number forecasts believing that even though his forecast was a single number people would still be able to recognize it as really x +- 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The worrying is underway, Just make another pot of coffee People will worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah...backed off some more. Whatever the makeup of the individual members the GEFS mean shifted the last 3 or so runs SE, now the SREFs too. To me it looks as though a lot of what falls is going to be driven by the OE type processes down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe I can help. Matt prefers to put single numbers on his maps that represent what he feels is a realistic expectation for what is going to happen. So I guess in a way it is an average. He told me that past experience has shown him that most viewers only recognize the number at the top of the forecast range. So to fix this problem he went to single number forecasts believing that even though his forecast was a single number people would still be able to recognize it as really x +- 1 or 2. Maybe I can help. Matt prefers to put single numbers on his maps that represent what he feels is a realistic expectation for what is going to happen. So I guess in a way it is an average. He told me that past experience has shown him that most viewers only recognize the number at the top of the forecast range. So to fix this problem he went to single number forecasts believing that even though his forecast was a single number people would still be able to recognize it as really x +- 1 or 2. Makes sense. Thanks. Only thing is that NECN has always done that, long before he got there. As long as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This has just never struck me as a region-wide 1' type of deal. Maybe I'll be wrong, but just some advice.....don't ever hold back in far of criticism. Who cares. Haha yea, thanks. Not sure why there was criticism on Bruchards map earlier, for once I agree with him. He even mentioned if anything he would expect some smaller 6" or 7" totals amid the general 8-10", only seemed excited for SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 People will worry. How much would you like to bet me that I will not reach double digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah...backed off some more.This forum died, it seems. Is it just time to feed the kids, or is the storm a no-go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 This forum died, it seems. Is it just time to feed the kids, or is the storm a no-go? Just emerging from the "dead zone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This forum died, it seems. Is it just time to feed the kids, or is the storm a no-go? Patrick there's not much to talk about really. SREF and even the HRRR/RAP are unreliable at the given ranges. Basically most of us are just watching and waiting. It is an interesting look right now at 0z so I do not expect this to be smooth forecast sailing and I'll leave it at that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This forum died, it seems. Is it just time to feed the kids, or is the storm a no-go? typical lull b/w model suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How much would you like to bet me that I will not reach double digits? Why would I bet you that you would reach it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just emerging from the "dead zone". Yeah...coming back to the seats after halftime with more beer...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah that is a reasonable forecast for our area .. imho if everything goes 'right' then maybe we'll see a 1'Yeah, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Whatever the makeup of the individual members the GEFS mean shifted the last 3 or so runs SE, now the SREFs too. To me it looks as though a lot of what falls is going to be driven by the OE type processes down this way. I expressed concern yesterday the WAA was not gonna work out as well as many hoped...the first hint of that was the 12Z SPC WRF today which was putrid on the SIM radar echoes with it for tomorrow and I have been following the HRR for hours and it does not look good nor does the RAP...it seems with these systems that dying low or inland vort tends to either die way before or later than modeled and the trends for the last day or so were for it to hit the crapper earlier which would mean less of a vort back west and hence less WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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