powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pike area already up to 0.25+ through 18 hours qpf. Should be less comments about how bad the NAM is this run, lol. At 12z people were wondering why folks bother looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 lol...all a met did was comment on it. Sure, but I think way too much credit being given to the previously mentioned runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Should be less comments about how bad the NAM is this run, lol. At 12z people were wondering why folks bother looking at it. It still blows but I'm reporting the results dutifully...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 TWC has the best verification scores of any commercial forecast outlet, and better than the NWS. That said, widespread 12-18 is way too bullish here, IMO. Really? I normally think they're pretty good but this one seemed way off the mark to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah...I've been realizing that. I'll talk to Allan about it...48hr too. Cool...makes it hard at times to compare...IE it looks less impressive than it is in some cases. I'm kinda surprised how many people are going with > 10" amounts for a large chunk of the region. Yes we should have decent snowfall ratios, but you still need decent frontogenesis to really rev up the omega into the snow growth region aloft. It starts with lift, and if there isn't any or its limited at best, you can be as cold as you want and not much will happen :-/ Now obviously its too early to sound the alarm yet, but I like to use the hourly mesoscale guidance to get a feel for how things are lining up in comparison to the global models to see if there are significant deviations. Thus far it looks like the major deviation is that the initial frontogenetical forcing expected for tonight is largely absent or diminished. This has implications not only for the short term WAA induced snowfall, but also how likely the coastal cyclone will ramp up, as a stronger temperature gradient traditionally aids in more robust surface cyclogenesis. Phil I'm not willing to go that far yet I was mainly commenting on the fact that there are schools already closed through Monday before the first flake fell. Ridiculous IMO for a storm that may largely produce 6 to 10" or so over many, many hours in some parts of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Why would I bet you that you would reach it? You seemed very critical of my earlier thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 well at least at h5 it looks better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Should be less comments about how bad the NAM is this run, lol. At 12z people were wondering why folks bother looking at it. well it's getting closer to it's usefulness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 well at least at h5 it looks better than 18z Ray's favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I just can't figure out the NAM. Here's how to handle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The weather channel has shown the 12-18 since yesterday for Mass...not sure what run they base that prediction on...But again they are riding this hercules name like there's no tomorrow..NOAA doesn't name Winter Storms...what ever makes their weather ballon float. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Coming together for ENE after 27hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Immediate coast of Massachusetts already 0.5 qpf just as round 2 getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 999mb slp at 27hrs mod snow in eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I want to live at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray's favorite! lots of snow in the clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think the WAA will be fine. It;s prolonged. That is an arctic dome, Forky can fart and 6 hrs later light snow will blossom over Ray. Forky, get some rea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Already better then 18z with the WAA up here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've never understood the whole school closing before a flake has fallen. Wake up at 4am and assess then. Why waste snowdays especially early int the season?As a parent, it does make our lives a bit easier. Arrange daycare or juggle work stuff. As a teacher, I am psyched. Although it just prolongs the year. Our district was a comedy if errors calling off this one though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is great for eastern areas and the berks but horrid for ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is great for eastern areas and the berks but horrid for ct. The dual evolution is going to have some real jackpotters and some real bendovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Congrats, Kev. Tolland peaks at H5, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You seemed very critical of my earlier thoughts. No, just on the RPM fetish as it has its many issues...I never disagreed that you are thnking 8" for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Was nice to step away and go out for food and libations with the family. Even nicer to get back to no major changes. This area still looks for overruning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 33 hours, coastal ma including BOS and more generously south shore with 0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow that's a toaster bath back this way. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 33 hours, coastal ma including BOS and more generously south shore with 0.75 At 33 hours the contours of the heavy stuff mirrors the GEFS pretty well. THis is going to be a snowjob for east coastal MA....liking the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pretty much a crush job for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The weather channel has shown the 12-18 since yesterday for Mass...not sure what run they base that prediction on...But again they are riding this hercules name like there's no tomorrow..NOAA doesn't name Winter Storms...what ever makes their weather ballon float. OT but It doesn't help that some local stations also name them with different names. We're not talking about a storm on the level of a tropical system and I don't think there's any real criteria as to which events get named and which ones do not. This looks like a pedestrian event save for the temps but media outlets will do what they need to in order to drive viewers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No, just on the RPM fetish as it has its many issues...I never disagreed that you are thnking 8" for your backyard. I wasn't endorsing the model in general, I just feel as though in this particular instance, it has a good handle on the mesoscale aspects in e MA. That's it. You agree that the JMA correctly signaled 2/06...has it been your go-to model since? Every dog has its day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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