Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RAP is a TB for CT as well....WAA precip to the north and the developing OES/weak wave precip moves up and develops over eastern areas cake-holing the state. Weird evolution we'll have to see if that is legit. 1z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM is just weird looking... never really gets good moisture at 700mb northwest of where the h7 low closes. Has an odd look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 looks like a max near nyc and a bigger max for e ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not exactly an exciting storm here. More like watching paint dry. But over 36 hours we'll creep our way to 8-12 inches of fluff I guess. 36 hrs of mostly -SN. I'm at the old place now 38 miles below Albany...where I have a small house I rent out now.... -SN has begun here and 23F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You can't wait to see me smoke salty subsidence. Nah not really. To me, suck holes are worse than flipping to rain. I wouldn't want to wish that on anyone. Once in a blue moon I wish it on Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On the NAM, it looks like most forecasted ranges can be hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On the NAM, it looks like most forecasted ranges can be hit. I usually like to see the NAM at this point showing something like 150% of forecasted ranges...due its wet bias. I still think this is not a widespread double digit event outside of the E coast of MA...there will be lollis to 10"+ NW of I-95, but I'm not convinced that there won't also be a lot of zones of 5-7" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks to me as though CT pounded. 36 consecutive hours 1/4mi vis in heavy, heavy regression R+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not exactly an exciting storm here. More like watching paint dry. But over 36 hours we'll creep our way to 8-12 inches of fluff I guess. 36 hrs of mostly -SN. I'm at the old place now 38 miles below Albany...where I have a small house I rent out now.... -SN has begun here and 23F. right there with you, Rick. Pretty boring. I suppose if we can get the breeze to blow some flakes around, we can pretend it's snowing harder than it actually is. Thank goodness for the WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I usually like to see the NAM at this point showing something like 150% of forecasted ranges...due its wet bias. I still think this is not a widespread double digit event outside of the E coast of MA...there will be lollis to 10"+ NW of I-95, but I'm not convinced that there won't also be a lot of zones of 5-7" too. So you actually agree with me. Miscommunication...I'm not an RPM hugger....just like it in this particular event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I usually like to see the NAM at this point showing something like 150% of forecasted ranges...due its wet bias. I still think this is not a widespread double digit event outside of the E coast of MA...there will be lollis to 10"+ NW of I-95, but I'm not convinced that there won't also be a lot of zones of 5-7" too. I think all but one or two ranges begin in single digits. Most with floors of 5-8 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So you actually agree with me. Miscommunication...I'm not a RPM hugger....just like it in this particular event. Well I'm not convinced it is right in this event either with all the monstrous topo features...though perhaps right near your BY, it could be ok. I'm just not a huge fan of using it in general. Sometimes it can give an idea of where the jackpots might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 right there with you, Rick. Pretty boring. I suppose if we can get the breeze to blow some flakes around, we can pretend it's snowing harder than it actually is. Thank goodness for the WAA snows. I think the thing I'm most excited about is the chance for some synoptic below 0F snows that aren't SWFE related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think the thing I'm most excited about is the chance for some synoptic below 0F snows that aren't SWFE related. CCB snows near or below 0F are reserved for places like Labrador. Pretty cool stuff that might happen late tomorrow night or early Fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not sure what to take from the NAM. Looked like garbage at 7h to me but it manages to spit out ~1" for most of E MA. 0.92" at TAN. edit, make that 1.00 exactly thru 48h. 12-15+ or bust per NAM. peace out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 But at least around here, aside from the one very wet run yesterday, the NAM hasn't been wetter than most other models which is kind of uncharacteristic. I usually like to see the NAM at this point showing something like 150% of forecasted ranges...due its wet bias. I still think this is not a widespread double digit event outside of the E coast of MA...there will be lollis to 10"+ NW of I-95, but I'm not convinced that there won't also be a lot of zones of 5-7" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well I'm not convinced it is right in this event either with all the monstrous topo features...though perhaps right near your BY, it could be ok. I'm just not a huge fan of using it in general. Sometimes it can give an idea of where the jackpots might be. Agreed. I liked it for e MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So I'm guessing we clear after the WAA snows taper and before the main show hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well I'm not convinced it is right in this event either with all the monstrous topo features...though perhaps right near your BY, it could be ok. I'm just not a huge fan of using it in general. Sometimes it can give an idea of where the jackpots might be. 48 hour QPF lines up well with the 18z GEFS mean. I think it's in the right ballpark we just need to watch now for tweaks and tucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I usually like to see the NAM at this point showing something like 150% of forecasted ranges...due its wet bias. I still think this is not a widespread double digit event outside of the E coast of MA...there will be lollis to 10"+ NW of I-95, but I'm not convinced that there won't also be a lot of zones of 5-7" too.I think you'll get a wide variety of reports due to the long duration nature if the event, the cold temps promoting fluff that settles, especially in wind, and how the measurements are taken. Some spots that are forecast to get 0.5-0.75" QPF do so without ever getting a 6-hour period to exceed 0.1-0.25" QPF. It's like 5 six hour periods of 0.15" QPF and so measuring and clearing every 6 hours may give you a value that's like 30-50% higher than what's on the ground come Friday afternoon (ie 9" snowfall, 6" depth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think you'll get a wide variety of reports due to the long duration nature if the event, the cold temps promoting fluff that settles, especially in wind, and how the measurements are taken. Some spots that are forecast to get 0.5-0.75" QPF do so without ever getting a 6-hour period to exceed 0.1-0.25" QPF. It's like 5 six hour periods of 0.15" QPF and so measuring and clearing every 6 hours may give you a value that's like 30-50% higher than what's on the ground come Friday afternoon. I hate events like that. This is going to be one of DT's worst performances ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I can't find my pic of Scoots looking at a toaster Anyway, NAM likes the overrunning bit, which is all I can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So I'm guessing we clear after the WAA snows taper and before the main show hits? I don't think anyone clears...we don't get the dryslot so we should maintain some -SN from the WAA right into the redeveloping secondary. The main show for us should be the WAA tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Seems like we have some that arent concerned about waa snow accums and other that are. I wonder when twc updates their maps (is it usually a given time) after digesting 0z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ratios on the SREF plumes for BDL are straight-up 20:1. .66" QPF, 12.72" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12:1 ratios are possible with this event across the Cape and Islands with 1.25" of QPF that gives us a nice 15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't think anyone clears...we don't get the dryslot so we should maintain some -SN from the WAA right into the redeveloping secondary. The main show for us should be the WAA tomorrow though. Lol yeah I know I was talking about measuring. Should've been more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Text extraction has. 82 in Smithfield RI.. 75 in my locale,. 62 at IJD, 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol yeah I know I was talking about measuring. Should've been more clear. heh...do whatever you want as long as you don't clear in less than 6hr intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I hate events like that. This is going to be one of DT's worst performances ever. Yeah his amounts are ridiculously high. Hopefully we get some more widespread areas of 0.25"+ QPF in those 6-hour blocks, as that's really when you get into the more sustained 0.5-1"/hr snows. But snow is snow so even long duration light snow events are much better than nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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