Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Foxboro/mansfield are not prime OE targets, i think it is clearly east of foxboro Where they border Easton and Sharon most certainly are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM. Check out that s/w I mentioned earlier. That gets really intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.GFS has had a good handle on what I perceive dynamics should look like with the parameters given. Lt snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 True, but if they jackpotted I wouldn't consider it a south shore jackpot. Either way, I'm sure they do well but not quite as well as the areas you outlined Whatever, they are south of Boston, so they aren't on the n shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS has had a good handle on what I perceive dynamics should look like with the parameters given. Lt snow here What's with your perpetual 34 temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Where they border Easton and Sharon most certainly are Folks forget how far inland oes penetrates on the s shore....and they benefit from an upslope component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Whatever, they are south of Boston, so they aren't on the n shore. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GGEM is respectable...not quite as good as the GFS, but solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You guys and your arguments...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Very best is east, but they are in a very good spot.They benefit from that weenie incline in elevation...they are the Tug Hill plateau of the s shore.In this set up i respectfully disagree w idea easton/canton are worth mentioning wrt enhancement- this is more diff of opinion w messenger. but JUST discussion.they are often an area foxboro and canton over to nw easton as a spot where the rain -snow like sets up just se of, I grew up in raynham and have seen time and time again where real enhancement helps Abington, norwell, s weymouth over to e bridgewater and negligable west of there...and mansfield /foxboro are not really aided much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There's going to be OES advantage along the coast for sure tomorrow evening...still can't get over how cold the BL is. BOS tomorrow night is out of 050 at 900mb with like -13C temp. That's going to add some fluff inflation into whatever synoptic snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WOOOAH WOAH WOAH WOOOO HO HOOOO. The NWS Chaaaaanged their rules? This would be life changing for me. Litterally. I fully believe that swiping the board every 6 hours is the right way to do it. Is fair to the snow. And it's a Right of Passage for The Real weather people vs. the standard people that just think whatever is on the grounds is on the ground. I could go on for hours on this. They better have not changed it cause we should not change. when the differences climb more than ten to fifteen percent it just doesn't seem right to me...Baltimore and Boston PD 2003...Central Park 2006...BDL Dec 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pickles has to get a keyboard or shift key...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In this set up inrespectfully disagree , they are often an area foxboro and canton over to nw easton as a spot where the rain -snow like sets up just se of, I see this not being an issue in this and i see this as more south shore storm. WTF are you disagreeing with? I said that the best will be east of them...I outlined my circle of win. Man, b*tches be mesosemanticing me to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There's going to be OES advantage along the coast for sure tomorrow evening...still can't get over how cold the BL is. BOS tomorrow night is out of 050 at 900mb with like -13C temp. That's going to add some fluff inflation into whatever synoptic snow is falling. Check out some of the low level omega and even CAPE on the 4KM NAM on BUFKIT if you can, Look at PYM..LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WTF are you disagreeing with? I said that the best will be east of them...I outlined my circle of win. Man, b*tches be mesosemanticing me to death. Meso-massages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lmao Skiing tmrw then driving home in blizzard, hopefully i can catch 7 hrs of work pay w nobody at gym fri am. Lets see in other try and get mid levels going so more can share in drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm out. Hopefully euro is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Man that 12z GFS is pretty awesome for SNE... H85 closes off well SE of the area, with H7 closing off along the southern coastline. Would advect some better moisture into the area and I haven't really looked at the soundings, but gut feeling is snow growth will be great with 850s in that -10C level. Ratios will likely even decrease as one heads north due to the arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong. Period. They jackpot because: 1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston. 2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands. I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's with your perpetual 34 temperature?got me, I signed up on the profile for local weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong. Period. They jackpot because: 1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston. 2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands. I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them. Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot. That was a weird storm. I remember that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot. What I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen. Dendritic growth in the boundary layer for one....it will be very interesting to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen. Normally a perennial jack pot candidate here on the cp, I bowed out of the running as soon as I saw how cold this would be. Zero chance. Nada. OES does not penetrate on the n shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Dendritic growth in the boundary layer for one....it will be very interesting to see how that plays out. Yeah no kidding. Not often the DGZ can start at sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Scooter and I have been "asleep" for like 2 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Normally a perennial jack pot candidate here on the cp, I bowed out of the running as soon as I saw how cold this would be. Zero chance. Nada. OES does not penetrate on the n shore. Sometimes you guys even in Wilmington get that "indirect" ocean effect snow. It occurs when your winds are north, but aloft at like 950 or 900mb winds are ESE. You get an overrunning kind of deal hence "indirect" OES. Doesn';t add to a lot..but will add to totals or precede a main snow shield. See Jan 2005 just east of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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