TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That is the most bullish map I've seen for this storm. lol Yeah same lol, I'd be very weary of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm glad I gave up worrying about qpf. Sticking 6-8", maybe get surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Those damn early release model runs again...lol At least someone has a sense of humor ... You see, the secret to roughing Kevin's feathers and getting his dome beady with sweat droplets, is you wait until about 9 minutes and 34 seconds prior to the actual public access time to make a post like that. The awesome deviance of that being that iT suspend disbelief, because some Mets have private access..etc, ... and it drills right into the darker recesses of his and his type's fears -- so gotta figure it's real, right? Muah hahahaha. Actually, I knew there was about a 99% chance that the NAM would NOT whiff actually, which is why it was so awesome to get Kevin all emotionally riled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I guess I am not seeing how I get more than 12" here in metrowest Boston, even with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I could discuss the CRAS too on every run..but it is probably not very relevant. These rpm runs are highly entertaining and many ocm mets will use these for their forecasts tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM doesn't throw down tons of QPF but based on the low track and winds it's going to get wicked for the coastal folks. Problem still is for you inland peeps how far west will the best moisture get and what geo effects are you going to have to contend with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Still the 18z nam is much worse then 06z run, but a bit better than the 12z run. I mean the 06z run was just amazing for eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 At least someone has a sense of humor ... You see, the secret to roughing Kevin's feathers and getting his dome beady with sweat droplets, is you wait until about 9 minutes and 34 seconds prior to the actual public access time to make a post like that. The awesome deviance of that being that is suspend disbelief ... and drills right into the darker recesses of his and his type's fears -- so they gotta figure it's real, right? Muah hahahaha. Actually, I knew there was about a 99% chance that the NAM would NOT whiff actually, which is way it was so awesome to get Kevin all emotionally riled up. You are going to lose it..totally and completly when the pack is wiped out on Monday. You always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just discussing what the model shows... Not making a forecast where does one find this RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some of these forecast totals outside of the meso OES enhancement spots look absurd to me...maybe I'm missing something... yeh - this widespread doesn't appear to have much model support, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm glad I gave up worrying about qpf. Sticking 6-8", maybe get surprised. Considering anything over 6" a win out here. Looking forward to the NWS Box and Alb afternoon discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah same lol, I'd be very weary of that I think you'd either be "wary" or that or "leery" of that. Unless you're very tired in which case I suppose you could be weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeh - this widespread doesn't appear to have much model support, but who knows I'm not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RPM fetish is back in full force this storm. RPM fetish is back in full force this storm. Do you disagree with its output, and why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The pack will survive Monday IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeh - this widespread doesn't appear to have much model support, but who knows That looks ......Herculean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Do you disagree with its output, and why?? Here it is for ****s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Plenty of snow remaining in trees here ... wonder if that'll increase power outage potential much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 These rpm runs are highly entertaining and many ocm mets will use these for their forecasts tonight Unfortunately you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think you'd either be "wary" or that or "leery" of that. Unless you're very tired in which case I suppose you could be weary. Lol yeah wary is what I meant. My grammar FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Do you disagree with its output, and why?? Yes. Because it is not a very reliable piece of guidance. It tends to overstate mesoscale effects of terrain and sometimes has little convective blobs. Its ok to look at it...and it might at least give a general sense of screwzones or jackpots...but you have to tone it down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 BOX prob map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Unfortunately you are correct. It appears that its honing in on some mega snowband... from BOS to Hanover area. If that doesn't materialize than the totals will be way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 These rpm runs are highly entertaining and many ocm mets will use these for their forecasts tonight I don't think it wise to hug any particular model, nor discount any. Pick your spots. Sometimes they're wrong, sometimes they're right. Did I think that I was really going to see the 50" of snow that that the RPM forecasted before the blizzard? No I do buy what it is selling in this particular instance, though; there is precedence for an FU-zone of subsidence just to the west of the area of cf enhancement in these very cold systems that have oes present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good Luck everyone, started an obs thread as snow should be arriving in far western areas of SNE in the next few hours. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42232-january-2nd3rd-storm-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yes. Because it is not a very reliable piece of guidance. It tends to overstate mesoscale effects of terrain and sometimes has little convective blobs. Its ok to look at it...and it might at least give a general sense of screwzones or jackpots...but you have to tone it down quite a bit. Tone it down, which I have. I do not expect to see the 6" that it implies, but I do expect to see anywhere from 8-12".....12" likely reserved for those just se of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You are going to lose it..totally and completly when the pack is wiped out on Monday. You always do That could be an interesting flood threat... I am not sure what the exact QPF numbers are, but the ground is undoubtedly going to be frozen solid and unavailable to moisture absorption. Should it really balm to the mid or upper 50s with DP, and we get a heavy line of slow moving showers paralleling the boundary sort of deal, than you got big melt-off and rain combined right into quick response water ways. There's always something to monitor... relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wrote something brief and to the point up... http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree that 6" is too low, but 8" is entirely within the realm of possibility. I have a question for the doubters: How much do you think I received in PD II and Dec 2003?? How about the October 2011 event? Everyone thought I was overplaying the subsidence in that, too. I don't doubt it's real. Happens more often than not especially with the given set-up. My thinking is more toward the N&W re: Merrimack Valley for ~2-4" less than surrounding environs I have +/- 14" MBY Those that you question are extreme examples. I agree and no argument here but with the trend I think you maybe underplaying given the QPF and depth of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't doubt it's real. Happens more often than not especially with the given set-up. My thinking is more toward the N&W re: Merrimack Valley for ~2-4" less than surrounding environs I have +/- 14" MBY Those that you question are extreme examples. I agree and no argument here but with the trend I think you maybe underplaying given the QPF and depth of the cold. I don't doubt it's real. Happens more often than not especially with the given set-up. My thinking is more toward the N&W re: Merrimack Valley for ~2-4" less than surrounding environs I have +/- 14" MBY Those that you question are extreme examples. I agree and no argument here but with the trend I think you maybe underplaying given the QPF and depth of the cold. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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