SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes my QPF tag - What the heck are so excited about for 0.5"-0.6"???? You guys make it sound life we all got 1.25-1.75". **QPF QUEEN** (Though I am kind of serious since 0.6" doesn't equate to the 8-15 predictions from here to TWC to Timbuktu that are out there right now. ) .6 QPF with 15:1 or 20:1 ratios will be 9-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 America the beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z RPM. I like for here. lol on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro has really struggled with this storm. Props to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Americans FTW I mean... I really hope someone will plaque this recent Euro's modeling performance to a baseball bat, and use it to topple this idea that it is the best thing ever contrived by man. It's not infallible, as Ray so eloquently put it the other day, and this last 3 or 4 days has been atrocious dude. Really, I think the NAM has had better continuity, and that is including its rather disconcerting 12z pull back. The Euro has sucked really bad people. Don't forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That rpm map jacks scooter with 16-20 while Kevin gets 2-4? Seems a ilittle nuts to me.. It can go a little overboard with terrain enhancment/shadowing (SW NH for example). Coastal band/subsidence is probably legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With regards to the Rpm posted. I don't think 2-4 in northern Connecticut would verify. That seems a little over the top. Seems to be hitting the areas outlined pretty hard still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I mean... I really hope someone will plague this recent Euro's modeling performance to a baseball bat, and use it to topple this idea that it is the best thing ever contrived by man. It's not infallible, as Ray so eloquently put it the other day, and this last 3 or 4 days has been atrocious dude. Really, I think the NAM has had better continuity, and that is including its rather disconcerting 12z pull back. The Euro has sucked really bad people. Don't forget it. Was there some major change made to it in the last 6 months to a year? I don't know how to do verifications, and I don't want to go OT lest people get cranky, but from a layman's view it has been the lesser of the 2 biggies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro 2-m at 00z SAT at BOS is -19.9C. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I mean... I really hope someone will plague this recent Euro's modeling performance to a baseball bat, and use it to topple this idea that it is the best thing ever contrived by man. It's not infallible, as Ray so eloquently put it the other day, and this last 3 or 4 days has been atrocious dude. Really, I think the NAM has had better continuity, and that is including its rather disconcerting 12z pull back. The Euro has sucked really bad people. Don't forget it. I mean... I really hope someone will plague this recent Euro's modeling performance to a baseball bat, and use it to topple this idea that it is the best thing ever contrived by man. It's not infallible, as Ray so eloquently put it the other day, and this last 3 or 4 days has been atrocious dude. Really, I think the NAM has had better continuity, and that is including its rather disconcerting 12z pull back. The Euro has sucked really bad people. Don't forget it. Euro will have a total flop every once in a while, but it certianly is right more often than not. I recall its atrocious handling of Feb 2006, December 5, 2009, a couple problems in Dec 2010, and even last year it really shat the bed in the 2/26/13 event right up to 24 hours out...though surrounding that it destroyed the competition on the two KU events (3/8/13 and 2/8/13) I think you can sort of recognize at times when the Euro is struggling...which is why many of us have been expecting warning criteria snowfall despite a couple Euro runs in past 24 hours that give barely advisory snows. But yes, it is important to recognize that it does fail...it is still only model guidance, not reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking forward to seeing the first blizzard warnings of the season. Drifting could be huge on the cape and South coasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking forward to seeing the first blizzard warnings if the season. Drifting could be huge on the cape and South coasts How does Westerly, UUU look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro 2-m at 00z MON at BOS is -19.9C. LOLSaturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro 2-m are nuts...probably literally nuts. can't see how it's that cold. that whole snow-cover issue with the 2-m makes for comical numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Saturday? yeah i meant 00z sat actually...this holiday has me all screwed up with what day today is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 School closings have started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 When it gets right down to go-time, the model with the greatest resolution is your own, in-house climo model. The models construct the situation, and we can apply that to are own internal databases of past experiences. Attleboro is a little too removed from the ocean....Situate is right on the ocean, and therefore unable to reap the benefits of that slight incline that is representative of the s shore topography. I like the S Weymouth, Holbrook, Avon, Stoughton, Brockton, Abington, Whitman, Rockland circle for jack pot potential. Positioned optimally to maximize fetch of the Atl, yet avail of the very same orographic phenomenon that the TUG does in LE events, though on a much smaller scale. On the N shore, the topography is a non issue, so the KBEV, Peabody, Danvers, Salem circle is likely to prevail in the battle for local supremacy. I suspect the reason being is that further out on the peninsula, the Manchester-by-the-sea, Gloucester, Rockport contigent is just a little too exposed to maximize the oceanic contributions, and further n, up toward Rowley, Ipswich, Newbury, Newburyport,, and Salisbury etc, they don't have quite as efficient a fetch off of the ocean due to the angle of the Maine coastline. In and around the immediate Boston metro portion of the coast line, from Lynn, down through the n half of Braintree, I suspect the angle of the fetch to not be optimal, however that is admittedly speculative on my part. Just some arbitrary analysis derived from my own experience of which precise spots should be favored in cold events, with oes contributions. Ultimately time will tell and I shall adjust accordingly for future considerations. 15z RPM. I like for here. I'll tell you what, I buy that. 100%. 6" here, rapid buildup once you hit rt 128. Jives with the my circular jackpot area on the s shore, as well....16"+ there. I'm expecting to be screwed with subsidence.....just se of me does well. I endorse the RPM in this articular instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This one is a head scratcher for school superintendents. Have school Thurs then early release and no school Friday? Cancel both days? Open Friday with a delay and single digit temps (old buildings that take a while to heat up)? No head scratching.....just cancel. Then who know what might happen Sunday night. 15z RPM. I like for here. On behalf of the 3 people in GC, we humbly accept this RPM. Americans FTW Olympics precursor?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This one is a head scratcher for school superintendents. Have school Thurs then early release and no school Friday? Cancel both days? Open Friday with a delay and single digit temps (old buildings that take a while to heat up)? Very interesting. Schools have been closed for a while now. Are they really going to heat up and open for a day?. I could see them closing both days. However as I've talked to my bro who is still on high school. He's hearing school tomorrow, probably not Friday. Friday is just not worth it, heavy snow early on at least, and harsh temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeah i meant 00z sunday actuallyLOL even more rediculous. Down below zero in BOS by 7pm Saturday? What does it have for inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 School closings have started. Yup Braintree is the first I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does Westerly, UUU look?should be some good winds, let's not forget the coastal issues too from North Shore to the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yup Braintree is the first I saw Fall River was the first I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL even more rediculous. Down below zero in BOS by 7pm Saturday? What does it have for inland areas? LOL...no...7PM Fri. this holiday has me all confused. fwiw...it has ORH at -22C. i have hard time with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro will have a total flop every once in a while, but it certianly is right more often than not. I recall its atrocious handling of Feb 2006, December 5, 2009, a couple problems in Dec 2010, and even last year it really shat the bed in the 2/26/13 event right up to 24 hours out...though surrounding that it destroyed the competition on the two KU events (3/8/13 and 2/8/13) I think you can sort of recognize at times when the Euro is struggling...which is why many of us have been expecting warning criteria snowfall despite a couple Euro runs in past 24 hours that give barely advisory snows. But yes, it is important to recognize that it does fail...it is still only model guidance, not reality. This event reminds me of Dec 2003, PD II, and Boxing day with respect to the qualitative distribution of snowfall in e MA. Could even add in the Jan 1994 event..very good analog to what will transpire imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yup Braintree is the first I saw Surprised your son's school hasn't closed through Tuesday by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL even more rediculous. Down below zero in BOS by 7pm Saturday? What does it have for inland areas? This has been mentioned before with this storm. The euro seems to go koo koo wrt temps on this... some weird goof, but it will be nastily cold Sat morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro will have a total flop every once in a while, but it certianly is right more often than not. I recall its atrocious handling of Feb 2006, December 5, 2009, a couple problems in Dec 2010, and even last year it really shat the bed in the 2/26/13 event right up to 24 hours out...though surrounding that it destroyed the competition on the two KU events (3/8/13 and 2/8/13) I think you can sort of recognize at times when the Euro is struggling...which is why many of us have been expecting warning criteria snowfall despite a couple Euro runs in past 24 hours that give barely advisory snows. But yes, it is important to recognize that it does fail...it is still only model guidance, not reality. Completely agree ... It also has better long term verification scores. I do not mean that folks should adopt an immediate poo-poo tact with the Euro, no -- more at what you say, knowing that it can at times flop around a bit. I think trying to identify when those times will be (perhaps using this and others to case study) would be useful for the future. One question I do have re its verification scores: Is that in quadrature, or is that the whole hemisphere ... planet, integrated ? I mean, if it has the best scores overall for the integrated domain of the entire NH (or the planet...), but consummately f-ups up say ...just over N/A, that would be less useful to us to put it nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 should be some good winds, let's not forget the coastal issues too from North Shore to the Cape Yeah. Flooding is going to be a big problem in the usual spots. New moon, long duration, high winds piling up water. Fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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