January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[bluewave]

The wind was incredible that night-we easily had gusts over 60 mph with the snow. The rates varied more where I lived since the most intense banding was just west of me that night. But we still ended up with nearly 20". I think it would have been a storm that killed a lot of people many years ago because of how it snuck up on us in the last 48hr before hitting. As it is, it takes a big time storm to paralyze NYC like that did.

 

12-26-10 to 2-2-11 was my favorite short stretch for multiple winter storms since 1-13-78 to 2-7-78.

[REDMK6GLI]

12-26-10 to 1-27-11 was my favorite short stretch for multiple winter storms since 1-13-78 to 2-7-78.

 

IMO the best and most intense snowfall and wind in my area I remember and ranked is: December 25, 2004 I believe ( changed to snow and heaviest ive experienced ), blizzard of 96' and Blizzard of 2013

[sferic]

12-26-10 to 2-2-11 was my favorite short stretch for multiple winter storms since 1-13-78 to 2-7-78.

Agreed, Never saw so much snow at my curb in that stretch of time, ever on Long island's SW side. Love to see that eclipsed one day.

[Superstorm93]

Upton: 

 

 

 

12Z MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
OF A COASTAL STORM AFFECTING US THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH FULL
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR
TO OUR EAST...A SHARPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS ITS AXIS IS NEAR US. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF THIS STORM
EVENTUALLY PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HEADING FARTHER NE ON FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ANTECEDENT COLD AIR WOULD HAVE
ANY PRECIP BEGIN AS SNOW...AND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE STORM...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MIXING AS USUAL WILL BE OVER SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN THE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THE STORM FOR A MENTION IN THE HWO. WOULD FIRST LIKE TO SEE SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR EACH MODEL AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY AMONG
THE DIFFERENT MODELS. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT BOTH THE 12Z
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ECMWF...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY FOR THE GFS...ARE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD
THEN BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

 

[jm1220]

12-26-10 to 2-2-11 was my favorite short stretch for multiple winter storms since 1-13-78 to 2-7-78.

Yeah, that was a great 6 week stretch. Constant, deep snowcover is hard to come by around here.

[wolfie09]

Mount holly

[+SNfreak21]

18z GFS is weaker (typical) but still has accumulating snow in the NYC metro. Weaker amplification of the trough in the Midwest leads to slightly offshore solution

[+SNfreak21]

Somehow GFS clown map still shows 6"+ for Philly to Long Island in an west to east fashion

[user13]

12-26-10 to 2-2-11 was my favorite short stretch for multiple winter storms since 1-13-78 to 2-7-78.

By far my fav, I have been spoiled ever since. I just wish the mid Atlantic storm went a little further north before the 2-2-11 storm. I would have been amazing to have 15" of snow on the ground with 15 more falling 2 days later.

[mob1]

Somehow GFS clown map still shows 6"+ for Philly to Long Island in an west to east fashion

There's a half an inch LE for LI and parts of NJ, this is a long duration light snow event verbatim on the GFS with around 3-6" for most areas, I think we'd all be happy with that but things can certainly trend better (or worse).

[NEG NAO]

it appears that HPC is delaying most of the heavier precip in this event - very little prior to OZ Jan 3....

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml

[donsutherland1]

Somehow GFS clown map still shows 6"+ for Philly to Long Island in an west to east fashion

QPF shown on the model is 0.60" at ISP, 0.40" at NYC, 0.52" at PHL. Pending verification from the soundings, ratios might be closer to 12:1 than 10:1 in places for at least a time.

[user13]

GEFS member # 10 on the 12z would be one of the most epic storms, hope the 18z still has some like that

[Stormlover74]

This run shows snow from midnight Thursday through midday Friday.. Essentially 36 hours of mostly light snow

[REDMK6GLI]

GEFS member # 10 on the 12z would be one of the most epic storms, hope the 18z still has some like that

 

mmmm indeed. that would be the most extreme but amazing solution though. feb. 2010 redux

[EasternLI]

This is fine by me (kfok)

[Allsnow]

I like how all models have overrunning snows, we are not totally reliant on costal low moisture.

[bluewave]

By far my fav, I have been spoiled ever since. I just wish the mid Atlantic storm went a little further north before the 2-2-11 storm. I would have been amazing to have 15" of snow on the ground with 15 more falling 2 days later.

 

No shortage of over the top weather events here in recent years.

[WeatherFox]

18z GFS, five days out is light snow for NYC. Plenty of modeling time ahead of us and only time will tell us for sure. Good luck to us and a happy & healthy new year to all.

[forkyfork]

No shortage of over the top weather events here in recent years.

we keep getting favorable blocking patterns, even during times of predominantly +AO modalities 

[REDMK6GLI]

No shortage of over the top weather events here in recent years.

 

yea and after sandy its not only winter storms. albeit sandy was more of a disaster not an awesome experience though

[earthlight]

DGEX looks good...lots of overrunning precipitation and the coastal low reforms just S of LI.

[PB GFI]

I would never want to b in the bullseye 5 days out

On the GFS. These like to come west so this is a good spot. This will b a cold storm. So I think u get 12 to 1

[SnoSki14]

I love how much cold air is in place, the high pressure placement is nearly ideal. Despite the OTS track we still get overrunning snows. I think the best case scenario is a very cold MECS. Late December of 2009 comes to mind.

[REDMK6GLI]

I love how much cold air is in place, the high pressure placement is nearly ideal. Despite the OTS track we still get overrunning snows. I think the best case scenario is a very cold MECS. Late December of 2009 comes to mind.

 

high ratios would be likely with the current setup and like how the GFS is still east. N&W trend at the right time

[mob1]

I love how much cold air is in place, the high pressure placement is nearly ideal. Despite the OTS track we still get overrunning snows. I think the best case scenario is a very cold MECS. Late December of 2009 comes to mind.

Don't... Ever... Mention... That... Storm...

[nzucker]

Don't... Ever... Mention... That... Storm...

That was a disappointment with only 8" in Dobbs Ferry.

[uncle W]

the greatest snowy and cold periods for NYC...

30" in 30 days...
The short list...
02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0"
02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2"
12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4"
01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1"
01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2"
02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8"
12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2"
01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2"
01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6"

................................................................

greatest winter periods of snow and cold...
The period covers 15 days...The 15 day period must have an average temperature of 32.0 or lower with at at least 10" of snowfall...Not every winter gets one...Some big storms in the past are not included because it wasn't cold enough....March 58 and January 64 are two examples...Most years have a period when the temperature averages 32.0 or lower...Many years had 10" in 15 days...These are the years that had both...1947-48 and 1995-96 had three such periods...last winter had one...1960-61 could have three...1/15-1/31...2/1-2/15...

15 day period.............AT..max/min...Precip"..Snow"BS"....SC"

Feb. 14-28 .......1940..29.6..42..16..1.96"..11.0"...9.0".....9"

Feb22-Mar 8.....1941..31.5..51..17..2.36"..22.1"..18.1"..18"

Jan. 6-20 .........1945..24.5..39....9..1.33"..11.9"...6.7".....8"

Dec. 10-24........1945..23.7..45..10..1.27"..12.2"...8.3".....9"

Feb. 7-21..........1947..30.6..49..10..1.51"..15.9"..10.7"...10"

Dec23-Jan.6.1947-48..29.7..37..18..4.55"..32.1"..26.4"...26"
Jan21-Feb.4.....1948...20.5..37...0..1.75"..12.2"....5.1"...12"
Feb20-Mar.6.....1948..30.7...57...9..2.33"..10.6"...5.7"......6"

Dec 14-28.........1948..30.8..51..10..2.70"..21.3"..16.0"...16"

Jan. 5-19..........1954..26.7..41....7..1.43"..12.7"....7.8".....9"

Feb. 7-21.........1958..21.4..39....3..1.37"..10.5"....7.9".....8"

Mar. 3-17.........1960..27.5..42..14..1.40"..16.4"..14.5"...14"

Dec 11-25........1960..25.8..49....8..2.50"..16.6"..15.2"...15"
Jan21-Feb 4.....1961..17.5..34...-2..2.97"..22.5"..17.4"...25"

Dec 11-25.........1963..27.0..39..11..1.19"..10.3"....6.6"....7"
Feb. 8-22..........1964..31.3..43..19..1.71"..11.9"....6.8"....6"

Jan. 10-24........1965..27.1..50....9..2.11"..14.1"....6.3"....6"

Jan20-Feb 3.....1966..28.2..44....8..1.73"..14.7"....6.8"....8"

Feb 6-20..........1967..27.7..60....4..1.73"..18.9"..12.5"...14"

Feb 9-23..........1969..31.7..43..17..2.47"..16.3"..15.3"...15"

Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0..58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5"

Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5..45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8"

Jan 5-19...........1977..20.2..41...-1..2.07"..10.9"....5.2"....6"

Jan 9-23...........1978..26.1..58..12..5.45"..19.3"..13.6"..14"
Feb 1-15..........1978..24.9..37..10..1.50"..21.9"..17.7"..18"

Feb 5-19..........1979..16.5..34....0..1.38"..20.1"..12.7"..16"

Jan 9-23...........1982..19.2..45....0..2.21"..11.8"....5.8"...8"

Jan 8-22...........1984..24.2..46....8..1.15"..10.5"....5.1"...6"

Jan25-Feb 8.....1985..27.3..41..14..1.36"..10.8"....5.7"...7"

Jan28-Feb11....1986..30.4..48..14..1.68"..11.5"....4.5"...6"

Jan 17-31.........1987..26.8..40....8..3.21"..13.1"....8.1"...9"

Dec29-Jan12...87-88..24.7..45....8..1.63"..13.8"....5.8"...9"

Jan30-Feb13....1994..25.8..46....7..2.45"..22.4"..12.8"..21"

Feb. 2-16.........1995..26.3..47....6..1.72"..11.1"..10.8"..11"

Dec 9-23..........1995..28.9..44..15..1.77"..11.5"....7.7"....7"
Jan 2-16...........1996..24.2..41....6..3.41"..25.2"..20.2"..21"
Feb 2-16..........1996..27.1..49....5..1.41"..20.4"..10.7"..10"

Jan20-Feb 3.....2000..24.5..38....8..1.78"..11.7"....5.5"....6"

Dec22-Jan5.....00-01..25.2..34..14..1.12"..14.6"..12.0"..12"

Feb. 5-19.........2003..25.6..41....8..2.32"..26.1"..19.8"..20"

Jan. 14-28........2004..20.0..39....1..1.36"..16.8"..10.3"..12"

Jan. 16-30........2005..20.5..38....5..1.27"..15.3"..13.8"..14"
Feb18-Mar 4.....2005..30.6..43..16..1.54"..18.7"....7.7"....9"

Dec19-Jan2.....09-10..31.9..55..16..3.07"..12.6"..10.9"..11"
Feb 2-16..........2010..31.2..42..17..1.86"..16.0"..10.0"..10"

Dec 14-28........2010..29.3..40..19..1.62"..20.1"..20.0"..20"
Jan. 13-27........2011..27.0..41...6...3.70"..25.2"..19.0"..23"

Jan26-Feb9......2013..31.5..61..11...2.81"..12.2"..11.4"..10"

[SnoSki14]

Don't... Ever... Mention... That... Storm...

 

That was the first major storm of that epic mid-atlantic winter, I don't think the cut-off will be that bad this time. That winter showed us though that there is such a thing as too much blocking or too much of a NAO. I think that winter was a nightmare for New England. 

[mob1]

That was the first major storm of that epic mid-atlantic winter, I don't think the cut-off will be that bad this time. That winter showed us though that there is such a thing as too much blocking or too much of a NAO. I think that winter was a nightmare for New England.

Yeah, the Feb. 5-6 storm was by far the worst, a trace for NYC will places in central NJ had 2 plus feet. I think this storm even if does go well SE of us can still produce some decent snows for us, it's a very broad LP system on the GFS and shows decent snow for everyone.