earthlight

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About earthlight

  • Birthday 05/06/1990

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  1. Yeah, it looks to get quite volatile for a period of time here toward the end of November. But I think we will see a bit of a relaxation with tendency for warmer than normal temperatures thereafter from early Dec onward -- for a few weeks at least. Should be sufficient to cause weenie suicides as per usual. Despite the daily ups and downs, new ENSO news, etc, everything seems generally on track to me. The pattern seemed to have a propensity to produce a colder than normal/active period in late Nov, but likely to snap back in Dec. Onward from there, everything still seems on track to me for a slow-play developing into a "second half slammer" of a winter...or whatever they're calling it nowadays .
  2. This post legitimately made me laugh out loud.
  3. Spent the weekend in Vermont..hiked to the Bromley summit. 4-5" solid up there with a bitter cold wind. We had snow in Londonderry too which was a nice surprise. Stratton looked like it got a nice event too on Sat AM
  4. I think the focus has to be less on whether it's technically a Super El Nino or not, and more on where the tropical forcing is, where the warmest anomalies are, and how that is going to affect the global circulations down the road over the next few months. Monitoring that will have much more major implications than whether or not this El Nino crosses a certain number threshold or doesn't.
  5. It also doesn't have to be that much different to be an above normal snowfall winter either.
  6. For those who may not have seen it, we released our winter forecast on Monday here: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/02/winter-forecast-2015-2016/
  7. We are essentially in uncharted territory right now in regards to analogs for this particular winter. For these global sea surface temperatures and anomalies, the way things have progressed in the past two years, solar conditions, snow cover, etc, there are no true analogs or years which help us along in terms of guidance. In reagrds to winter forecasting, this year will present a tremendous challenge and skills test for anyone who is involved with seasonal forecasting.
  8. The southwestward drift over time (that very few models were able to recognize, by the way) and then eventual northeastward movement also helped. A weird looking wind field map for sure.
  9. Remarkable loop on many levels. In addition to the moisture plume feeding in to the Southeast States in tandem with the upper level low, you can really visualize the small escape route that Joaquin took into the Atlantic. Meteorologically, despite the fact that Joaquin escaped seaward, a tremendous evolution of events.
  10. No, you said the pattern change has been 2 weeks away since October, which is wrong.
  11. Yup. But that being said, nobody should be complaining about this look:
  12. Correct. But not necessarily long term. Things can get favorable very quickly with an elongated ULL over Southern Canada and a block to its north over Central Canada and an active pac jet.
  13. 552 DM block heading toward the D Straight on the GFS at 177. Exciting stuff.
  14. Unlikely. And you don't want it anyway. Let it cut into the Great Lakes and pump up the heights north of it. The pattern is favorable for high latitude ridging to move into a very favorable position if it does that.