January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[PB GFI]

[PB GFI]

Those temps are more impressive than if we get 6 to 10 inches of Snow .

[earthlight]

Those temps are more impressive than if we get 6 to 10 inches of Snow .

Those maps are off and are likely being skewed by a model artifact of the land surface model. Snow cover/etc.

[PB GFI]

Those maps are off and are likely being skewed by a model artifact of the land surface model. Snow cover/etc.

The gfs does show minus 25 air over it's snow cover. The euro thinks there's 10 inches of snow on the ground. But single digits in nyc poss

[REDMK6GLI]

Those maps are off and are likely being skewed by a model artifact of the land surface model. Snow cover/etc.

Todays consensus: models hone in on a MECS looking miller B. however, pattern is fragile and caution is still urged and i am on the side of caution. Im going to use boxing day as a comparison as too how fragile the setup is and not in its intensity and wide impact point of view. we dont really have established blocking and were depending on the PNA spike and northern stream to dig and time correctly with the southern branch. Not till monday 12Z model suite will i totally indulge myself in this threat. However, it is trending towards a MECS for us currently. Correct me on any errors in this statement if you will john, your opinion is greatly appreciated

[+SNfreak21]

Todays consensus: models hone in on a MECS looking miller B. however, pattern is fragile and caution is still urged and i am on the side of caution. Im going to use boxing day as a comparison as too how fragile the setup is and not in its intensity and wide impact point of view. we dont really have established blocking and were depending on the PNA spike and northern stream to dig and time correctly with the southern branch. Not till monday 12Z model suite will i totally indulge myself in this threat. However, it is trending towards a MECS for us currently. Correct me on any errors in this statement if you will john, your opinion is greatly appreciated

 Heights will build in the Davis strait/Greenland and PV will act as a 50/50 low just in time for the storm

[David-LI]

I remember we had an euro fantasy run a couple storms ago only to change dramatically next day. Too bad it's 5 days out. Hopefully it will trend closer to a big storm but I believe this will be a NE special.

[SnoSki14]

 Heights will build in the Davis strait/Greenland and PV will act as a 50/50 low just in time for the storm

 

There's more than one way to get blocking and that's a way to do it. Getting a strong, perfectly placed Greenland Block or west based block is not an easy task and we've been incredibly spoiled as of late. Most don't realize how rare the storms of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 really are and I'll even toss in the February storm of last winter especially for those in SNE. 

 

There's been multiple awful winters in past years. Since 2000, we've only seen 2 or 3 total dud winters whereas the 80s an 90s had dud winters in bunches. 

[+SNfreak21]

There's more than one way to get blocking and that's a way to do it. Getting a strong, perfectly placed Greenland Block or west based block is not an easy task and we've been incredibly spoiled as of late. Most don't realize how rare the storms of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 really are and I'll even toss in the February storm of last winter especially for those in SNE. 

 

There's been multiple awful winters in past years. Since 2000, we've only seen 2 or 3 total dud winters whereas the 80s an 90s had dud winters in bunches. 

Thank God I was born in the late 90s, Ive heard the winters of 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 was the worst stretch of winters ever ha

[bluewave]

Will see if the euro ensembles come in further east than the Op in a little bit?

[Superstorm93]

ECMWF Ensembles actually looks pretty decent. The control run still has warning criteria snow for the entire region. 

[supermeh]

Will see if the euro ensembles come in further east than the Op in a little bit?

Ensembles are north and west of last nights ensembles.

[NEG NAO]

Will see if the euro ensembles come in further east than the Op in a little bit?

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/statuses/417025471662919680

[earthlight]

Will see if the euro ensembles come in further east than the Op in a little bit?

 

They are slightly flatter than the OP but it's pretty clear that the signal is about the same. The 850mb low goes just southeast of Long Island. 

[PB GFI]

The ensembles look fine. They still seem to b in the slot

The difference w the op are small and nothing that's really alarming

Every storm has a little variance to it. Nothing glaring

[Absolute Humidity]

There's more than one way to get blocking and that's a way to do it. Getting a strong, perfectly placed Greenland Block or west based block is not an easy task and we've been incredibly spoiled as of late. Most don't realize how rare the storms of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 really are and I'll even toss in the February storm of last winter especially for those in SNE. 

 

There's been multiple awful winters in past years. Since 2000, we've only seen 2 or 3 total dud winters whereas the 80s an 90s had dud winters in bunches.

Coincides with the PDO shift. 1940's and 1960's saw these storms nearly as common as the 2000's.

[TWCCraig]

Thank God I was born in the late 90s, Ive heard the winters of 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 was the worst stretch of winters ever ha

 

Looks like I'm not the youngest here. 

 

Hearing Euro ensembles are just a tad south of OP.

[Storm At Sea]

Euro ensembles are exactly where we want them at this point. If they were showing a major hit at this point in time, I would worry. We want them to be slightly east of the area and slightly east of the OP.

 

The ensembles look fine. They still seem to b in the slot
The difference w the op are small and nothing that's really alarming
Every storm has a little variance to it. Nothing glaring

[SnowGoose69]

Coincides with the PDO shift. 1940's and 1960's saw these storms nearly as common as the 2000's.

 

The 80s were more bad luck repeatedly than anything else, almost a perfect storm of timing never ever being right, the NAO was negative plenty of times from 1984-1992 and yet only one 8 inch storm occurred in NYC in those 8 years.,,,86-87 and 87-88 had tons of chances but they all missed down in the MA and 88-89 was similar...we'll undoubtedly see another period whjere the PDO/AMO/NAO/ENSO all are similar to the 80s but odds of us even coming close to a snow drought like that again would be near zero.

[PB GFI]

That is about what we normally see at 144 hrs. Even if the OP was a little too amped up, a slightly

further east track would still probably be a warning criteria event here.

Nice deep  D10 trough into the Northeast on the ensembles .

[mimillman]

This is exactly the kind of thing I would've expected from this pattern. Redeveloping clippers/southern stream systems ftw when you have an utterly suppressive PV and a steep ULJ out west.

[SnowGoose69]

Nice deep  D10 trough into the Northeast on the ensembles .

 

The GFS Op has been trying to go back to that SE ridge idea but yet its had a -NAO signal at the same time, I think even if we did get a SE ridge type setup again where the AK ridge built back west it would be a heavily muted SE ridge thanks to there being more ridging over Greenland.

[Weathergun]

The Euro ensemble mean has been getting wetter and farther west with each past run, since 12z yesterday. Total qpf around the area, looks between .60-80", on the 12z run today.

[Heisy]

Thank God I was born in the late 90s, Ive heard the winters of 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 was the worst stretch of winters ever ha

 

Too bad you never got to experience 95-96 and the Blizzard of 96, a storm that felt like it lasted for 3 days,  January 2000, going to bed with forecast for flurries and waking up to a foot+ of snow, too bad. the winter of 93-94, April Fools 1997...you snow weenies are lucky these days with all these big storms lately. Not that 27 is old or anything, but trust me, don't take the recent big snow seasons for granted, it all evens out eventually. 

[PB GFI]

The GFS Op has been trying to go back to that SE ridge idea but yet its had a -NAO signal at the same time, I think even if we did get a SE ridge type setup again where the AK ridge built back west it would be a heavily muted SE ridge thanks to there being more ridging over Greenland.

I just wama Muffle it I don't kill it. Don't want whiffs. But Its hard to ask for a better set up ths far out. It looks like a good pattern.

U take the precip types out of the equation.

[Absolute Humidity]

The 80s were more bad luck repeatedly than anything else, almost a perfect storm of timing never ever being right, the NAO was negative plenty of times from 1984-1992 and yet only one 8 inch storm occurred in NYC in those 8 years.,,,86-87 and 87-88 had tons of chances but they all missed down in the MA and 88-89 was similar...we'll undoubtedly see another period whjere the PDO/AMO/NAO/ENSO all are similar to the 80s but odds of us even coming close to a snow drought like that again would be near zero.

I wouldn't wish 88 - 92 on my worst enemy.

[PB GFI]

The GFS Op has been trying to go back to that SE ridge idea but yet its had a -NAO signal at the same time, I think even if we did get a SE ridge type setup again where the AK ridge built back west it would be a heavily muted SE ridge thanks to there being more ridging over Greenland.

The one thing I will add is the EPO is forecasted to b between 4 and 5 s d below normal thst helps push on the s e ridge and prob keep it at bay think the gfs mistake was taking the MJO into 5. Euro was 8 1 2. So the gfs broke the AK ridge down too fast

[+SNfreak21]

Too bad you never got to experience 95-96 and the Blizzard of 96, a storm that felt like it lasted for 3 days,  January 2000, going to bed with forecast for flurries and waking up to a foot+ of snow, too bad. the winter of 93-94, April Fools 1997...you snow weenies are lucky these days with all these big storms lately. Not that 27 is old or anything, but trust me, don't take the recent big snow seasons for granted, it all evens out eventually. 

Dec 2010 might be the best in terms of dynamics, snow rates, and wind, I wish another 96' happened tho

[REDMK6GLI]

Dec 2010 might be the best in terms of dynamics, snow rates, and wind, I wish another 96' happened tho

 

96' was much better just because of the more widespread big snows coverage. boxing day screwed the mid atlantic, 96' delivered the goods to ALL the megalopolis

[jm1220]

Dec 2010 might be the best in terms of dynamics, snow rates, and wind, I wish another 96' happened tho

The wind was incredible that night-we easily had gusts over 60 mph with the snow. The rates varied more where I lived since the most intense banding was just west of me that night. But we still ended up with nearly 20". I think it would have been a storm that killed a lot of people many years ago because of how it snuck up on us in the last 48hr before hitting. As it is, it takes a big time storm to paralyze NYC like that did.