jm1220 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 12z GGEM is above 0C at 850mb, near the coast, until 150hrs, when the CCB is leaving the area: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html I don't value the GGEM either. It shows rain through most of SNE as well. It's a huge outlier though so I wouldn't value it much (as others are saying). I will say, this is by far the best potential pattern we've had so far this winter to produce something notable for the entire area. The blocking isn't particularly strong, but it could be enough to cause sufficient interaction for a nice winter storm for our area. Let's hope that holds. There could still be little interaction and therefore suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wanted to see one more Spanish translation from the outgoing mayor. The city is open fuh businesss..go see a show..visit rockefella...sorry banter I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 well with that in mind we can discount a suppressed solution at this time most of the guidance is signaling a storm close enough to give us a SECS - Next up the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just saw DT's FB. He says this is not a New England and Northeast snow storm. Hopefully he's wrong. In the other hand I'm sure JB is hyping it big for NYC. Maybe a compromise would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just saw DT's FB. He says this is not a New England and Northeast snow storm. Hopefully he's wrong. In the other hand I'm sure JB is hyping it big for NYC. Maybe a compromise would be nice. The 12Z GFS ensemble members are all over the place but at 132 hours, they overall argue against his idea, I can find 8 of the 12 that argue for this being more of a NE event than the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just saw DT's FB. He says this is not a New England and Northeast snow storm. Hopefully he's wrong. In the other hand I'm sure JB is hyping it big for NYC. Maybe a compromise would be nice. LIsnow666 since you are new here - we have a separate thread for vendor reviews and comments - anyways the 12Z GFS ensembles also have us in the 0.25 -0.50 qpf range http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122812/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 LIsnow666 since you are new here - we have a separate thread for vendor reviews and comments - anyways the 12Z GFS ensembles also have us in the 0.25 -0.50 qpf range http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122812/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Didn't know that. Thanks. Glad to hear ensembles also giving us some love on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just saw DT's FB. He says this is not a New England and Northeast snow storm. Hopefully he's wrong. In the other hand I'm sure JB is hyping it big for NYC. Maybe a compromise would be nice. Just to be clear, he was specifically referencing the 12z operational GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Usually a good sign for NYC snow when DT says suppressed. Just saw DT's FB. He says this is not a New England and Northeast snow storm. Hopefully he's wrong. In the other hand I'm sure JB is hyping it big for NYC. Maybe a compromise would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12Z EURO should be starting any minute now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 any word on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro looks way different..certainly won't be suppressed. Northern stream is really energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 120 hrs amplified trough on Euro, PV north, snows breaking out along I-70, looks good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS ensembles have some really impressive members...wudnt be shocked if Euro goes in that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro looks very good. Albeit a tad warm at the end, still a 6"+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The polar vortex is shifting east by 120 hours too. Gotta wonder if maybe this will be warm at least at some level (just thinking aloud here) Man, this set up suddenly looks very volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro has a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Based on what I'm reading here, the ensembles were showing this threat more than the operational runs of the GFS and Euro. Now, we're seeing the Euro on the operational showing the threat now. If things come together, we will have a major winter threat Thursday and Friday, followed by some really cold arctic air over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The polar vortex is shifting east by 120 hours too. Gotta wonder if maybe this will be warm at least at some level (just thinking aloud here) Man, this set up suddenly looks very volatile. The PV is acting as a temporary 50/50 low to amplify the trough right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 High pressure literally in a classic position at 114 hours..primary low will be forced to redevelop. Looks great, pretty simply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Im about to cry tears of joy after seeing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 994mb low redevelops over SE NJ..perfect track and dynamics for most people on this forum. CCB develops overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Im about to cry tears of joy after seeing this porn, pure porn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 994mb low redevelops over SE NJ..perfect track and dynamics for most people on this forum. CCB develops overhead. Miller A or B john? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 There is actually a pretty good looking block up north that seeps south, this is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the euro is on board (seems so) I'll be pretty happy for the rest of the day Edit - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Miller A or B john? It's more Miller B, there's a southern stream entity but the N stream drives the entire thing. Very impressive looking set up, suddenly, on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The PV is acting as a temporary 50/50 low to amplify the trough right The block is forcing the PV underneath it, which keeps the high pressure in place (won't allow it to slide out like in recent storms last month that warmed up to rain near the coast), and also may help with interacting the two streams. Perfect example of how NAO blocks help our chances with snow events tremendously. It forces more interaction, slows the pattern down, and keeps cold air in place. But a lot can still change here. As others have said-I'm not that worried about rain out of this. However, there's still a long way to go. I expect at least some scares in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 To say the least...things will bounce around the next few days...don't hug this run quite yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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