gymengineer Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I was just going to post that. lol. Winter abruptly ended after that but who would care. I would would be totally fine canceling in mid feb after a stretch like that. 2/3 was the KU that slammed NYC (24" at Kennedy). 2/8 was slop fest for the DC area-- snow to sleet-- but hit us harder than north east of us. And we even got a modest snow on 2/11. Five snowstorms in a little more than three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z gefs mean and members remain bullish on a +pna ridge d10-15 keeping us cold. Looks active but unless we get some blocking we are at risk for miller b skippage. If the trough is amplified enough it can save us. Looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z gefs mean and members remain bullish on a +pna ridge d10-15 keeping us cold. Looks active but unless we get some blocking we are at risk for miller b skippage. If the trough is amplified enough it can save us. Looks good for now. The operational euro model looks like it would bring another really strong cold shot down if it is right. The ensemble also seem to be hinting at that. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The operational euro model looks like it would bring another really strong cold shot down if it is right. The ensemble also seem to be hinting at that. Wes Op keeps getting more bullish on it. I'm only interested in snow patterns at this point. Especially after last night and today .It's cold but the novelty is gone already. NH panel @ 240 shows a pretty strong scandanavian ridge pushing into greenland. If we're going to get another blast I sure hope it gets blocked this time instead of a hit and run. I'm looking forward to the warmup but would love to get right back to it and maybe get another widespread event. Everything looks ok but it's all on paper a year in the future. At the very least I think the odds of you having to write winter wx articles soon are going up; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I am looking foward to the return of the cold the Euro shows... 65 on Monday is atrocious for wintertime temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Euro ensembles supportive of dropping another cold shot in. d10-15 period looks ok but looks to be a repeat of what we've seen several times already with one exception (better placed and more prominent pna ridge). Maybe we luck our way into a -nao. Otherwise progressive mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the pattern sucks for snow like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the pattern sucks for snow like usual It looks like more of the same, haven't you done well this season, I thought you were over 50% of climo and it's only Jan 7th? I was up in Leesburg for two of the events and they were 3"+ and I thought last week you got like 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the pattern looks good for clippers that will travel north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Ji is the Eeyore of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the pattern sucks for snow like usual Welcome to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Ji carries an elephant gun to the petting zoo looking for big game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Ji is the Eeyore of winter! the pattern looks like if we max out...we get a 3-4 inch storm. I want a big dog(6-12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 when the euro control dosent even show a snowstorm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 when the euro control dosent even show a snowstorm........ dude, you're slipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 when the euro control dosent even show a snowstorm........ .....get the shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 dude, you're slipping controlsnow.JPG LOL. What is it? When is it? Where's it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL. What is it? When is it? Where's it from? Jan 21-22nd euro control. It's the Jan 61 noreaster redux. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I am looking foward to the return of the cold the Euro shows... 65 on Monday is atrocious for wintertime temps 60's for a couple of days will be nice IMO. The gefs are really nice looking for the end of the winter. Now if we can just get an active southern stream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL. What is it? When is it? Where's it from? Jan 21-22nd euro control. It's the Jan 61 noreaster redux. Book it Purple fringed. Next. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I've had enough winter at this point. Let's get the cherry blossoms going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I've had enough winter at this point. Let's get the cherry blossoms going. The earliest daffodils in the neighborhood were poking through the ground last week. They seem to always come up around now. Kind of weird, but cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This winter is an underperformer and I'll tell you why. We've had plenty of cold...plenty of moisture and not enough snow For all this dca has about 3.5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I've had enough winter at this point. Let's get the cherry blossoms going. Maybe another season when we get snow along with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This winter is an underperformer and I'll tell you why. We've had plenty of cold...plenty of moisture and not enough snow For all this dca has about 3.5 inches? Blame the Atlantic for dca. Blame 09-10 for your disdain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This winter is an underperformer and I'll tell you why. We've had plenty of cold...plenty of moisture and not enough snow For all this dca has about 3.5 inches? You talk about DCA like you live there. Don't you have over 12" already?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 10.7 and feels like 10.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 GFS shows a fairly amplified pattern with a few shots at threading the needle. Definitely minimizes the duration of the heat wave. Perhaps something trackable next wed/thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 is it too early to start a MLK snowstorm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Gfs and euro have the same idea but different in the evolution of next week. Gfs wants to bring a front through and keep up chilly as the wc ridge amplifies. Euro wants to do it in stages with a cooldown mid/late next week and most likely another West track low before the cold dump. Either is plausible. I suppose the euro is more likely given the lack of real blocking but with such an amplified pattern setting up it wouldn't surprise me if the gfs type solution is more correct. We typically don't do well on the front side of a long wave pattern change. I'm pretty bearish on chances before next weekend but it's possible. Imo- the period of the 18th-22nd looks pretty ripe. The Jan 61 analog has been at the top of the op and ens runs of cpc d11+ for long enough to raise an eyebrow. Hopefully it holds. One of the ways to get a ns vort under us without a block is a highly amplified wc ridge / ec trough. That lw pattern looks quite likely at this poin. Placement and timing of any ns energy is impossible to guess at such a long lead but the pattern is looking like the best we've seen so far. Still flawed in the atl though. One of the scenarios for a sig event would be a decent storm (even if rain) mid-late next week becoming a 50/50 for the next piece of energy diving down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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