FallsLake Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of ironic, if I moved to Missouri I would be hoping for this pattern to continue. --This horrible pattern for us is a great pattern for somebody else. I think this is why I still have some hope left. There is cold air around; my thinking is that eventually we will cash in either through a perfect setup or the NAO & PNA will cooperate for a short time. As I stated before. I'm hoping for the perfect thread the needle storm(soon) but betting on the end of January and early February period for a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gets too cold and we will get nothing at all. Nothing but cold and dry air Yep go figure, rain Thursday, too warm to snow then look at the temps behind the rain plenty cold but the moisture is gone, you would think the timing would get together sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of ironic, if I moved to Missouri I would be hoping for this pattern to continue. --This horrible pattern for us is a great pattern for somebody else. I think this is why I still have some hope left. There is cold air around; my thinking is that eventually we will cash in either through a perfect setup or the NAO & PNA will cooperate for a short time. As I stated before. I'm hoping for the perfect thread the needle storm(soon) but betting on the end of January and early February period for a better pattern.It won't happen. The OPI has told us what we need to know. There is no SSW coming up either to potentially change the pattern. Cold and dry winters do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 It won't happen. The OPI has told us what we need to know. There is no SSW coming up either to potentially change the pattern. Cold and dry winters do happen.Exactly, people in here should read the thread. Everything wouldn't be so surprising. If it is right, which it has been so far, our best chance at wintry precipitation will be in February. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2#entry2577865 http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6809/16k2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 00z GFS output for Charlotte has aftn highs of 31 on Friday and 38 on Sat. 00z Canadian looks similar. Who knows if they are right, but that's what they are showing from the 00z runs. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kclt Thanks, I hope this holds to be true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It won't happen. The OPI has told us what we need to know. There is no SSW coming up either to potentially change the pattern. Cold and dry winters do happen. Exactly, people in here should read the thread. Everything wouldn't be so surprising. If it is right, which it has been so far, our best chance at wintry precipitation will be in February. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2#entry2577865http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6809/16k2.png Seeing the storm for the NE on the horizon would you say the same for them? Best chance Feb? As much as everyone wants to believe it, the OPI isn't our one index savior for uncertainty in LR forecasting. It's just not that easy. It's a cool tool but it's only one part of the equation and hanging your hat on that index will get you in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Seeing the storm for the NE on the horizon would you say the same for them? Best chance Feb?As much as everyone wants to believe it, the OPI isn't our one index savior for uncertainty in LR forecasting. It's just not that easy. It's a cool tool but it's only one part of the equation and hanging your hat on that index will get you in trouble.The NE and midwest have done well so far this winter. I'm saying that it might be a good for the SE to look at. You see in the chart where the Tropospheric wave development activity was high in Late November and early December, you guys received snow and we had some very cold air around Thanksgiving. It is forecasted to peak in February which might be another opportunity in the SE for wintry weather. It also helped the guy nail the 500hpa guy potentially anamolies during that Late November period. He made the forecast at the beginning of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Seeing the storm for the NE on the horizon would you say the same for them? Best chance Feb? As much as everyone wants to believe it, the OPI isn't our one index savior for uncertainty in LR forecasting. It's just not that easy. It's a cool tool but it's only one part of the equation and hanging your hat on that index will get you in trouble. Given the pattern we've seen so far, and assuming the OPI index continues it's accuracy I'd say the OPI index would be a better indicator for winter weather for the SE. The NE is having a pretty great season so far, +AO or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 72 hour UKIE. We can't ask for much more than this, quite honestly. Check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think we need a rule that the storm threads should not be started until three days before the event is supposed to impact us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My vote is no storm thread until within 48 to 72 hours of an event. agree 100 percent... 48-60 hours at most For real? Maybe I'm having a memory lapse but I don't remember starting storm-specific threads this late. At most 2 to 2.5 days out? Might as well wait and create an OBS thread. Call me crazy but there are plenty of model runs and solutions to fill pages of thoughts in storm-specific thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we get a little consistency, we should start a thread after tonight's 0z runs. So far it seems that the models are just teasing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the right question is how much are we going to discuss this potential? If we're going to have pages of discussion there needs to be a seperate topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we see this trend in a favorable direction after the 0z cycle tonight, then let's start the thread. No reason not to start one. It's not like there's a limit on threads or anything. I mean, you don't want to start one for every non-event that comes along or the board would be filled with chaos. But if there are going to be pages of discussion of a potential event, then there's no reason not to start a thread. If it dies, it'll fall to the bottom of the page anyway. Not sure where all of the aversion to starting threads comes from. Wilkes is gone. An unhealthy fear of superstitions. Seriously, the storm will do what the storm will do regardless of where we discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 From the first half of January is gone, the pattern sucks, se ridge western trough, to arguing if someone should start a thread or not in 6 hours. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Please start a thread so people can know what you all are discussing as this has nothing to do with the pattern thread. It doesn't matter what you do, a storm or a piece of energy isn't going to know you started a thread. Even if it doesn't snow for yall, it is going to be a significant rain event for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have never started a storm thread, plus Jan 4 is my wife's birthday. Mayne I can bring the good mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have never started a storm thread, plus Jan 4 is my wife's birthday. Mayne I can bring the good mojo. Do it. I speculate that the Euro might have changed over to snow for some at the end of its run. For someone with detailed maps, did this occur or was it all-rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Pardon the intrusion, but it makes sense that "storm threads" are likely not started until confidence is higher. Yes, typically in the past they've been started earlier, but with the model mayhem lately even 72hrs out confidence is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Pardon the intrusion, but it makes sense that "storm threads" are likely not started until confidence is higher. Yes, typically in the past they've been started earlier, but with the model mayhem lately even 72hrs out confidence is low. That's my entire point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Go ahead Brick. Nobody else has brought anything so maybe you the one. We have nothing to lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy posters coming out of the woodwork batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There is nothing worse than seeing the 95 corridor get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's how you start a storm thread my friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Welcome back to AMWX...Wilkes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has a high temp of 16 degrees for Raleigh next Tues Would be great to have some snow with that just to have an excuse to stay home and not have to go out in that kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There is nothing worse than seeing the 95 corridor get hit. Agreed- I truly am pulling for you guys to get hit hard. I would love to see it. Maybe Brick will bring it home for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I knew something was up when their was 82 new posts in the last hour or so.. Fest around here now.. Holy posters coming out of the woodwork batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I knew something was up when their was 82 new posts in the last hour or so.. Fest around here now.. I know, I had a couple of phone calls at work and I came back on here and there were 2 new pages on the discussion thread. That's when you know something good has happened model wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm hearing talk that the euro shows a major snowstorm in the south in about 10 days. Is this true ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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