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Rockin' March


Ian

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Yes and no. When there's not much to talk about, letting banter fly at times is fine. It's really no big deal. When we are staring down the barrel of a major event it's a different story.

 

I knocked off useless banter posts in the storm thread early yesterday afternoon. The second mets from other subforums join in with important discussion it's a no brainer to stfu unless you have real substance to add. I don't see why it's so hard but it is for some reason. 

Don't look at me, I hardly post in discussion threads. I know my place ;)

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Go ahead

Alright.. this morning I read the LWX discussion, looked at the 6z GFS and said (summarizing here).. that my guess is the models cut precip significantly as we get closer to the storm and that with reduce precip rates.. we will likely see rain... 

 

And for that, I got pounded... was told that my post was "odd/ aweful" and the I really need to "stop making predicitions"

 

Then all the sudden we were in storm mode and my post disappeared...

 

What was wrong with what I said?

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Alright.. this morning I read the LWX discussion, looked at the 6z GFS and said (summarizing here).. that my guess is the models cut precip significantly as we get closer to the storm and that with reduce precip rates.. we will likely see rain... 

 

And for that, I got pounded... was told that my post was "odd/ aweful" and the I really need to "stop making predicitions"

 

Then all the sudden we were in storm mode and my post disappeared...

 

What was wrong with what I said?

 

The models aren't cutting back on the track and strength of the ull or the surface lp though. There are going to be precip wobbles every run. The synoptic features all point towards an area of heavy precip. Especially nw of the slp. Precip maps verbatim are low on the priority list of things to compare. 

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This is a really nice long way of saying "i'm going to be the biggest obs whore on earth when the deform band sets up over jyo and is dropping white asteroids so big they are setting off car alarms and denting mailboxes". At least that what I read anyways. 

Lol....I wish...I won't be home for this one....I honestly hope everyone gets some snow to enjoy

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The models aren't cutting back on the track and strength of the ull or the surface lp though. There are going to be precip wobbles every run. The synoptic features all point towards an area of heavy precip. Especially nw of the slp. Precip maps verbatim are low on the priority list of things to compare. 

This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic? 

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This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic? 

 

In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. 

 

 

Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES!

 

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When is NAM most useful (if, at all)?  Within 48 hours?  Within 6 hours?  I've seen varying degrees of opinions on this lately.

 

NAM isn't good with big winter storms at all. Even close in like 48. It's a good comparison tool to other models that are better with this stuff though. The 12z nam freaked out on precip but the track of the ull and evolution of the slp are stinking straight up porn. 

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NAM isn't good with big winter storms at all. Even close in like 48. It's a good comparison tool to other models that are better with this stuff though. The 12z nam freaked out on precip but the track of the ull and evolution of the slp are stinking straight up porn. 

 

Good to know, thanks.  So is any aspect of the NAM useful at this point, besides a comparison tool?  (i.e. while the precip totals are, let's say, NAM-worthy, is it ok with track of the ull/slp?).  I guess we'll see when the 12z suite comes out.

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In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. 

 

 

Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES!

 

attachicon.gifpurpled!.JPG

Oh my god... we only need like half of the to verify for a legit SEC... this place is gonna explode if the GFS follows suit... looks like the deform band shifted north toward the MD/ VA line

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In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. 

 

 

Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES!

 

attachicon.gifpurpled!.JPG

 

Hey, I didn't say we could trade the precip hole in exchange for purples.

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This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic?

I agree with Bob in regards to how you could have made the post more fitting for a discussion and analysis thread, but I'm always disappointed in how curt people can be on these boards. It's not hard to be courteous when explaining to someone why they should think twice about making such posts.

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I agree with Bob in regards to how you could have made the post more fitting for a discussion and analysis thread, but I'm always disappointed in how curt people can be on these boards. It's not hard to be courteous when explaining to someone why they should think twice about making such posts.

 

Great post.  +1

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