wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Broke out the second computer screen.. Game's on now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Weenie question - but then this is the banter thread - what would be the best track for any chance at any kind of flakes in the DC metro - into Delaware, or into NJ and then WSW, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Weenie question - but then this is the banter thread - what would be the best track for any chance at any kind of flakes in the DC metro - into Delaware, or into NJ and then WSW, or what? I posed this question earlier, I think we came to the verdict that central NJ to NYC with a westward trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Going through the BUFKIT files of the 12z GFS is full of lolz. 50kt gusts and Ice Pellets at ACY. 3" of Snow in Westminster. 6" at Jon's House. Higher terrain of Eastern PA get 5" of snow and 1/2" of Freezing rain. Per that GFS run, a few flurries make it down into the metro region early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I want to say that a quick glance that 18z NAM looks a tad like the 12z EURO... SE/E NC being raked by precip shield at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Abundant October snow usually translates to a crappy winter around here. If the Euro verifies it will be the worst winter ever. My impressions as well, but I don't know if there's real data backing that up. Of course, we all know how last winter turned out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Um...I am in awe at the funny from the NE thread. In awe... Absolutely catastrophic event is enroute. Something we never have and may never see again. Folks that lived thru '38 know and our kids will tell our grandkids about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Gonna suck when that doesn't happen for Mt Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Gonna suck when that doesn't happen for Mt Tolland Funny... I was kinda thinking that it might be apropos if it DOES happen and wipes his house away, while leaving him unhurt. Wonder if it would seem so cool then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Moving this to the banter thread That's just what this region needs. The same people that empty grocery shelves at the first sight of a snowflake don't need to have the fear put in them (this far out) that there's a chance the DelMarVa will be wiped off the earth. What do you expect tv mets to do? Not mention it at all? Again, he showed an OPTION that is on the table. He has not at all said it was going to happen, just mentioning the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Chilly http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Moving this to the banter thread What do you expect tv mets to do? Not mention it at all? Again, he showed an OPTION that is on the table. He has not at all said it was going to happen, just mentioning the possibilities. I apologize if the actual broadcast wasn't as insinuating as the post describing the broadcast. Mets have a heck of a job in a business where it's hard to be right most of the time. I'm sure it's a hell of a balance in what to tell and when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I apologize if the actual broadcast wasn't as insinuating as the post describing the broadcast. Mets have a heck of a job in a business where it's hard to be right most of the time. I'm sure it's a hell of a balance in what to tell and when All good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Gonna suck when that doesn't happen for Mt Tolland Be nice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the Baltimore broadcast mets are pretty awful for the most part--they are the Joe Bastardis of tv. of course they're going to hype up the worst case scenario. I like Tony Pann. We was a good one on Ch 9 here. He was always very sensible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it's perfectly fine for TV mets to show models in context. As those of use who follow this know, there's multiple models and different members to the models. So, if a met says "this is one model of many and here are the variety of solutions that it thinks are possible, from bullseye Carolina to bullseye Bermuda, so let's keep an eye on it..." The people who follow weather aren't watching them. The people who don't could get some insight into the alchemy of forecasts by getting a little bit of model porn from time to time, in context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 the Baltimore broadcast mets are pretty awful for the most part--they are the Joe Bastardis of tv. of course they're going to hype up the worst case scenario. Tom wasn't hyping anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I present to you, the most impressive model run to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I present to you, the most impressive model run to date The GFDL wants to bomb this thing. And now I'm interested since something is finally showing a sub-930 low. Boring otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the Baltimore broadcast mets are pretty awful for the most part--they are the Joe Bastardis of tv. of course they're going to hype up the worst case scenario. Tommy T is anything but awful, definitely one of the more level-headed TV mets around here. Unless you've actually seen his broadcasts, you should probably cut it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Which one is that Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Which one is that Hoosier? 18z GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Re: The Baltimore mets...... WBAL has by far the best group. I don't pay attention to WMAR or WJZ very much, but I'll say that Bernadette on JZ isn't terrible. Marty Bass alone is enough to make anyone want to avoid watching their channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFDL It likes overdeepening but that's a common problem with most modeling of hurricanes when they transition. I wonder which has the best chance of being correct, the 18Z gfdl or the 18Z gfs and wonder which typically verifies best with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It likes overdeepening but that's a common problem with most modeling of hurricanes when they transition. I wonder which has the best chance of being correct, the 18Z gfdl or the 18Z gfs and wonder which typically verifies best with tropical systems. http://www.hfip.org/events/review_meeting_gsi_nov_11/tues_am/Franklin%20HFIP%202011%20Annual%20Review.pdf *GFD L (GFDL) was originally designed to forecast cyclones; it is considered one of the most accurate early model predictors on Earth as it creates a three-dimensional grid by combining information and data from multiple sources. GFDL is “nested” within the GFS system but specifically focuses on the Atlantic and Pacific basins (detailed regional forecast model). GFDL is pretty accurate, usually coming in first or second on computer model outcomes. GFDN is the Navy’s version of GFDL (it is also sometimes referenced as NGFDL). While GFDL will not be developed any further past 2008 (HWRF will eventually replace it) development of GFDN will continue for the foreseeable future. Both GFDI and GHMI are interpolated versions of previous cycle GFDL models; GFNI is the interpolated version for GFDN… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My impressions as well, but I don't know if there's real data backing that up. Of course, we all know how last winter turned out! FWIW, twice in my memory we've had significant snow out here: last year and Oct 10, 1979. Each subsequent winter was lacking for snow. I believe at least 79-80 offered an occasional cold spell and one decent snow that winter, in contrast to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Here is another answer to your question Wes: Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center study a wide array of data and use experience and intuition to predict a hurricane's future path. Computer-generated weather models and measurements gathered by "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft play a major role. Four main models: GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, NJ) Type: Detailed regional hurricane model The scoop: A model developed specifically for tropical systems, this model is nested as part of the GFS global model, with a focus on the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The GFDL has become the most reliable model in recent years, with its average error the least of all models. It additionally has performed well with individual storms, often as either the most accurate or second-most accurate model with individual storms. GFS Global Forecast System National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Camp Springs, MD) Type: Global model The scoop: Creates worldwide forecasts by plotting the storm on a large grid that covers the globe, but has a coarser resolution than many regional models due to computer limitations. Offers the longest range forecast up to three weeks but after five days time, forecasts can vary wildly from run to run. Often tends to overdevelop the tropics, sometimes showing a chain of two or three simultaneous storms that never develop, but can be a good indicator of when conditions are becoming more favorable for development overall. NOGAPS Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Naval Research Laboratory Type: Dynamic global model The scoop: Not designed specifically to predict hurricanes, the NOGAPS model uses synthetic upper-air data based on the NHC's estimates of storm location and intensity. Nevertheless, the model has become very accurate over the past few years. UKMET United Kingdom Meteorological Office Type: Dynamic global model The scoop: Run by the UK's meteorological office, the model is very similar to the NOGAPS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW, twice in my memory we've had significant snow out here: last year and Oct 10, 1979. Each subsequent winter was lacking for snow. I believe at least 79-80 offered an occasional cold spell and one decent snow that winter, in contrast to last year. n=2 is lackluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Here is another answer to your question Wes: Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center study a wide array of data and use experience and intuition to predict a hurricane's future path. Computer-generated weather models and measurements gathered by "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft play a major role. Four main models: GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, NJ) Type: Detailed regional hurricane model The scoop: A model developed specifically for tropical systems, this model is nested as part of the GFS global model, with a focus on the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The GFDL has become the most reliable model in recent years, with its average error the least of all models. It additionally has performed well with individual storms, often as either the most accurate or second-most accurate model with individual storms. ravensrule is back!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ravensrule is back!!!! Fuzzie i was here all summer but i just lurk because summer weather does not excite me like winter weather. The derecho was awesome though. I hope you had a great summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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