ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ripped this off the graphical forcast for MBY JUST A WE BIT BREEZY Probably never see this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just a thought... Any chance that Irene strengthens a tad if it stays over water after NC? Did Gloria strengthen a bit? It'll be fun to put the keyboard down, sit back, and find out! Maybe it will, maybe it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Radar presentation of irene is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 IEMBot It's probably just sending out automated messages as the ob comes out. Alright...that makes sense...just send out another one saying another 81kt gust 9 minutes after the previous one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm just hoping this holds together long enough to give the higher elevations some fun up here... H95-85 wind speeds are still pretty darn strong when it gets up here. Also the 4-7" of rainfall should be interesting, the stream/small river that flows past my property drains the entire east side of Mansfield and Smugglers Notch... I've seen it a muddy raging torrent only once or twice (where if you fall in you definitely die no questions asked) so the roar should be special on Sunday night. A few of us are hoping to ride it out tomorrow evening and night, 5 miles up the road at the Visitors Center at 2,200ft in Smugglers Notch. Hoping for some locally enhanced wind speeds in there once it passes as NW winds are forced between 2,000ft vertical foot high walls. Another good spot would be Taft Lodge at 3,600ft but doubt we'll make it up there in the torrential rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I just realized that sorry... I like reading some of the posts up here cause good info.. but claims/posts that Irene is moving NE are clearly wrong. I have the Sat loop for the past two hours and its due north... maybe slightly NNE. Thank you Dendrite and ORH for the lesson Thanks for the reverse jinx in giving us the 090 wobble over the last 20-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Any guesses for max wind gust on MWN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 From Matt Noyes WOW. Irene officially 85mph but Cedar Island Ferry Terminal, NC, just recorded sustained 90mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If you are tropical enthusiasts feeling a bit disappointed by Irene, sit tight... Many of the operational guidance have been pegging another CV system developing off a wave east of Sierra Leone over Africa. This wave has a tight cyclonic gyre associated with it already. The Roundy Probs are still lighting up the Basin, and drilling positive anomalies up off the Eastern Seaboard right through to the end of September. In fact, the 00z ECM (no determinism) showed a precarious TC nearing the Bahamas D10 with a similar weakness/shear axis that drew Irene up along the EC in place. Frankly, this low amplitude PNAP pattern I believe is one we are stuck with as a 6 month mean, interrupted occasionally by attempts at pattern reverse. Post Irene there should be one such ridge and relative calm pattern, at or above normal in temperatures until said background re-asserts and the ridge retrogrades west. This could very well be the first in a series of long trackers - point being that there should be in the least others to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Radar presentation of irene is very good yes and a very pronounced ENE wobble of the EYE, woot woot on the closed eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just a thought... Any chance that Irene strengthens a tad if it stays over water after NC? Did Gloria strengthen a bit? No it weakened with a near total collapse of the western semicircle. Keep in mind water temps cool one north of approx latitude of Hatteras and with a slow moving tropical system encountering cooler waters and also increasing westerly shear it will probably weaken or at best hold its own. Fast moving tropicals tend to weaken at a slower rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow I'm shocked the pressure is down to 947mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thanks for the reverse jinx in giving us the 090 wobble over the last 20-30 mins. fook. I hope you get one inch of ice... wait... Good luck up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 No it weakened with a near total collapse of the western semicircle. Keep in mind water temps cool one north of approx latitude of Hatteras and with a slow moving tropical system encountering cooler waters and also increasing westerly shear it will probably weaken or at best hold its own. Fast moving tropicals tend to weaken at a slower rate Couple of things contrary to your post, shear is with the flow this time, Jet dynamics impressive, will weaken pressure wise, size results much slower wind down than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 seems to be wobbling due east now, oh no OTS.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 seems to be wobbling due east now, oh no OTS.. LOL benchmark track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If you are tropical enthusiasts feeling a bit disappointed by Irene, sit tight... Many of the operational guidance have been pegging another CV system developing off a wave east of Sierra Leone over Africa. This wave has a tight cyclonic gyre associated with it already. The Roundy Probs are still lighting up the Basin, and drilling positive anomalies up off the Eastern Seaboard right through to the end of September. In fact, the 00z ECM (no determinism) showed a precarious TC nearing the Bahamas D10 with a similar weakness/shear axis that drew Irene up along the EC in place. Frankly, this low amplitude PNAP pattern I believe is one we are stuck with as a 6 month mean, interrupted occasionally by attempts at pattern reverse. Post Irene there should be one such ridge and relative calm pattern, at or above normal in temperatures until said background re-asserts and the ridge retrogrades west. This could very well be the first in a series of long trackers - point being that there should be in the least others to watch. Lol... This is like "EURO looks good for next week's snowstorm" before tonight's snowstorm has even begun Appreciate the analysis/outlook... in a season of a multiple blizzards, an F3, earthquake, northeast hurricane... 2 northeast hurricanes seems par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 From Matt Noyes WOW. Irene officially 85mph but Cedar Island Ferry Terminal, NC, just recorded sustained 90mph! Yes 90 mph steady and 110 mph gusts The eye looks much better now and the storm is actually stronger now than at landfall. Storm down to 947 mb According to Knabb the storm will still be a hurricane up into SNE because it is so large, with a significant part of its circulation still over water, plus the frictional effects with the land causing the core to tighten up. Even if the center of the eye tracks just inland, it wont lose much intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This further west track will make it very interesting for me. I am in Central NH at 1100 feet facing south. Yesterday my concern was flooding in the area but now the south facing hills could take a beating up at elevation. Live on a dead end dirt road so if power goes it will be out for awhile. Got the generator filled with gas and lots of water for toilets etc so all set. Worst problem maybe no internet, i.e. no AmWx. Diasaster! I have the trusty DroidX with the large screen so should be okay for backup. Hype-O-Cane Irene's center holding up nicely right now, looking forward to a good ole Tropical Storm! Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 benchmark track? Ryan ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Might just be a temporary wobble but it still makes for a very weird scenario in that region west of the banks. Must be getting hammered in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This further west track will make it very interesting for me. I am in Central NH at 1100 feet facing south. Yesterday my concern was flooding in the area but now the south facing hills could take a beating up at elevation. Live on a dead end dirt road so if power goes it will be out for awhile. Got the generator filled with gas and lots of water for toilets etc so all set. Worst problem maybe no internet, i.e. no AmWx. Diasaster! I have the trusty DroidX with the large screen so should be okay for backup. Hype-O-Cane Irene's center holding up nicely right now, looking forward to a good ole Tropical Storm! Gene Yeah, a once in a lifetime storm for me too, to be in the right front quadrant of a Cat 1 lol. I hope you have wireless up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 benchmark track? between the cape and nantucket.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Might just be a temporary wobble but it still makes for a very weird scenario in that region west of the banks. Must be getting hammered in there. Yea thats for sure, hours and hours of torrential horizontal rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Really coming down outside once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Jim Cantore I can't help NOT trying to compare #Irene's 2nd landfall in New England tomorrow to that of of a 100 mile wide EF0 #tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You guys want to get a chuckle - Down load and run BUFKIT for Block Island. man, it's like the sounding at a jet engine proving ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Couple of things contrary to your post, shear is with the flow this time, Jet dynamics impressive, will weaken pressure wise, size results much slower wind down than usual. Yes jet dynamics are impressive but shear is shear and dry continental air always win out in decreasing a storm. Speed is too slow as well. If it intensifies it will be due to the dynamics and baroclinic features. Size really is insignificant it is all about how fast its moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here's 950mb winds on the 12z GFS first at 18z tomorrow and then 00z (dendrite already posted NAM awhile back)...you can see how there could def be some big time issues on the south facing shores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOl Kevin wil like the latest Hurricane Coordination message Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher....significant damage to trees and wire. Gusts to 85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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